Looking at this war more specifically, I don't think Putin's aim to conquer all of Ukraine as I don't think that's feasible. It took the red army 700,000 soldiers to clear out Kyiv against the Nazis in WWII, modern weapons haven't made this task much easier. Russia just doesn't have the manpower or resources to do so without engaging in near total war. I think Putin's aim is to secure territories east of the Dnieper as well as the southern regions of Ukraine as a buffer zone. This would also correlate with territories of higher native Russian population. Ukraine was considered the breadbasket of the USSR, and this territory would also cover a good portion of its agricultural lands. Reading the Russian reports thus far, it appears that they're using a lot of airborne, spetsnaz type of troops near Kyiv. I think that's done to cut off supply lines, perhaps even act as a decoy, and facilitate the invasion from the East and South. Those types of attacks can't conquer cities let alone hold them. Once the territory east of the Dnieper and in southern Ukraine have been secured, I think the forces to the north and west will withdraw back to Belarus.
This is all projection as idiots believe that Trump style bluster is actually some kind of strength. Biden has played this whole thing well. It was a bold master stroke to reveal all the fake Russian pretexts for action so they couldn't use them to justify anything. Some posters here are just mad that their hero Putin is looking like the war criminal he is.
While I agree with you for the majority of this post, I think it’s unfair to Germany on why they would not give lethal aid to the Ukraine. Germany is still dealing with national guilt from WWII. They will not conduct an internal military exercise above a brigade level unless it is joint with NATO partners because they worry about the implications of German having a large military exercise would have to their neighbors. The German people are quite concerned with nationalism and outside of the World Cup, you don’t a lot of "Deutschland, Deutschland, Deutschland!" I point that out to give context to why Germany did not want to give lethal aid to the Ukraine. The Germans killed a lot of Ukrainians in WWII and you have a population that has been conditioned to still feel guilty about it.
Interesting take on it. I cannot speak to the German mindset but given your explanation I have to wonder if neighboring nations have the same feeling towards Germany after all of these years? To me it signals the Germans are not to be trusted by their neighbors period. It's either that or the Germans have little faith in their government and don't want to see another instance of totalitarian rule manifest itself.
Oh it's not that. It's more like he's acting like he's lost it somewhat and I'm concerned he's going to become THAT irrational.
I think Putin wants this fait accompli because he thinks the faster it is over, the easier it will be for Russia to get out of any sanctions and return to business as normal. When Russia has Ukraine in its possession and there are no videos on Twitter of Russians or Ukrainians getting killed, Putin return to the diplomatic community and say "So where were we? Iran Nuclear sanctions and Climate Change?" The Biden Admin has already stated that they still plan on engaging with Russia on these issues and I think Putin is seeing that as an opening to get out of any serious sanctions the US and the EU impose, just as long as there is not footage of Russians and Ukrainians being killed on Twitter and the nightly news.
Pictures & videos, with satellite confirmation, have come out of Russians targeting apartment buildings, hospitals, etc. Russian claims that's a lie and they've been using precision weapons to only hit military assets. Russians also claim ZERO casualties & some lost equipment damaged during exercises. Some Russian outlets have been putting out anti-war pieces, running Western articles, etc, and are being told by Russian officials that they will be barred if they keep with their "misinformation". It's the 21st Century. People have access. Unless you EMP Ukraine & then literally shut off phone & internet to the entire country of Russia, you can't hide anymore.
Photos & videos are already out there of Russians targeting and hitting civilians. That's not going away.
I noticed when the President and their entourage were taking to the Kyiv streets, they were brazenly using their cell phones and taking selfies. I assume they turn all that stuff off whenever they go back to their secure location.
I think the point he was trying to make is that for most of the '50's through the '80's, Democrats were unwilling to admit that Soviets were actively involved in different social movements in America and Britain, from Labor to Civil Rights, while Republicans kept trying to point it out. (McCarthy certainly did not help any of that.) After Trump got elected, Democrats suddenly wanted to talk about the long history of Russians interfering in US internal politics.
If Putin can complete the invasion and take the urban centers, he will be able to say all those videos are a thing of the past. He'll invite the Press to "Come and walk down the safes street here in this potemkin city that is an example of the new Russian old homeland."
That is absurd. In the 50s through the 80s, every president confronted Russia. Democrat or Republican. Including Russian active measures in the US and attempted election meddling. McCarthy was a piece of garbage. But this is off topic.
He lost me at "The Russians did not have a tactical plan." A Tactical plan is the easy part. I'm always distrustful of intel that seems too good to be true. And Russians always have a plan.
The post was about Soviet interference in social movements internal to the US and Britain, not about confronting the Soviets around the world.
