In both cases of these countries the intruders have taken control of what government. I don't see how this will be any different with the Ukraine. In the case of Vietnam the country was split into North and South regions in 1954. In 1975 South Vietnam was lost to communist control. Vietnam is under communist control today. As for Afghanistan that history is pocked with multiple forms of government control. Today it is under the Taliban. Taliban announces new government in Afghanistan Who are the Taliban and how did they take control of Afghanistan so swiftly?
They may take Ukraine but they will not hold it. Russia does not have the manpower or the will to maintain an occupation of that much territory and control of a hostile population of over 40 million people. The US and probably NATO are already making plans to aid an insurgency. Wouldn't be surprised if CIA advisors and ops are already on the ground in western Ukraine. Caught just a bit of an interview with a retired admiral talking about distributing Stinger launchers and missiles to the Ukrainian military and to an eventual insurgency force. It worked pretty well disrupting air support for Russia's ground operation in Afghanistan.
They have plenty of training and a lot of modern weaponry. Russia will take Ukraine but they will pay a huge price, including Putin's standing among his own people. There's only so much he can do to force his will once the bodies start coming home. He overplayed his hand.
Has anyone seen what they consider to be reliable polling on how Russian and Ukranian citizens feel about what is happening and what Putin is doing? I haven't looked yet but also wonder if people would even feel comfortable answering honestly or not.
Russia being a police state, I highly doubt you would get candid responses. I know some protested, but likely face felony charges or worse under that despot and sworn enemy of the USA.
There are ways to get good polling info on Russia but it is my understanding it takes some time and has to be done in some round about ways. It came up on a podcast I was listening to and I cannot remember which one it was. I've googled around about it a bit but cannot find anything on it right now. I think it is a little too early to get any good polling info on it just yet.
100% of Russians approve of Putin's actions, and that result is completely unrelated to the large man with a gun asking the question.
Ha, I know. Someone said that Putin is going to lose standing among his own people in all this. I hope that's true, but I wonder how we would even know if there is no reliable polling - I mean short of massive protests in the streets, which would be far more dangerous for Russians than simply answering a poll question honestly.
Biden is doing exactly what he should be doing. The Russian markets have lost nearly 70% of their value since Biden and other leaders began announcing economic sanctions. Now that the invasion has started, Russians are marching in the streets.
Ukrainians want nothing to do with Russian rule and will fight it to the end. They've been a democratic, free market country for years and they like it. There's no reliable poll data on Russians but they've been marching in the streets.
Minus the 1400 protesters arrested today. You can probably add their families to that number. No one with a significant investment in the Russian stock market is happy today.
There are a lot of unanswered questions. I do like the way Jen spun the issue of oil. President Biden knew this would happen and had been talking to other nations to increase oil production and exports for this very reason. No answer concerning oil imports from Russia and whether or not we would stop importing oil from Russia. No definitive answer on oil issues for the US other than question the oil companies about it. Funny thing though is our government runs on oil and depends on it. How much will the American public suffer concerning the lack of oil is an unanswered question other than expect things to get worse not better. Finally on the subject of financial sanctions against Russia the intent is to hurt Putin not the Russian people yet it is the Russian people that will suffer in the end. Putin will still get his vodka, lobster and crab same as Kim Jong-un as their populations suffer a far worse fate. As for Ukraine immigrants we expect you to stay in Europe. Mainly Poland.
