2022 NCAA Tournament Outlook

I guess it’s not technically over. We have 3 SEC games left. Then a SEC tournament. We aren’t making the big dance so it’s over in my book. I’m not watching the NIT

 

And UK will likely outnumber Gator fans in our building and win by whatever they want. 20+ I’d assume. That’s what Mike White has done to this program

 

I think we need 3 more wins…maybe two more quadrant 1s

 

I was surprised even if we had won this one, we would have still been “first four out”. But it’s moot now. I don’t think this team is capable of what is necessary now.

 

We aren’t good enough. Too thin in the front court and no one can create on offense. Guard play is mid major at best. We live and die off of our threes falling. Simple.

 

We took a huge hit from last night.

 

It would be interesting to know what these numbers would be had we just beaten Texas Southern.

 

one of the things that bugs me the most about coach White is that he seems to value length and athleticism a lot more than skill and shooting with the players he brings in, and today's game is all about skill and shooting. We saw it from day one of his tenure when he cut John Mooney loose from his commitment (to Billy) and Mooney went on to be a super productive player at ND.

that mentality goes hand in hand with his love of the DDO and defensive focus and I believe it's a big reason for our failure to run consistently good offense on his watch.

 

Mooney made 1st-team All-ACC. Do you think that White would have developed him to that level? What if CC had come to UF right out of high school? Would he be the player that he is right now?

 

I'm not really sure about either one of them - I don't really think our current staff has been great at player development, so my instinct is to say no, but it's a hypothetical I can't really answer.

but I do know Mooney would've been a great addition to our teams from 2017-20 as a legit 6'10 big man with consistent deep range. We could've paired him with Hayes, Castleton or Blackshear in the frontcourt and allowed Keyontae to play the 3 full-time - Locke could've come off the bench as a super sub and we wouldn't have lost any shooting from the starting lineup.

 

Noah Dickerson also decommitted and went to Washington where he made 1st-Team All PAC-12. I don’t know whether White pushed him out, but again it makes me wonder about big-man development under White.

 

To have any shot of at large the UK game just became a must win. In fact, probably need to win the last 3 regular games to lock a bid, but perhaps a win vs UGA and UK and the Gators will only need to win 1 game in the SECt. However, even if the Gators win the next 2 games but lose to UK, the Gators will need to win twice in the SECt. I see very little shot at all vs UK unless they're a complete no-show and not sure the Gators can even win the next 2 games.

 

That's heartbreaking.
After that Auburn win, Florida went from about 45% chance of receiving an at-large bid to now only about a 23% chance following the Arkansas loss. What a wild fluctuation in these projections.

 

imo it makes little impact, sec record is still what it is,

 

Here are all of our games showing the scoring margin, Quad & Net ranking effect. We lost 35 in Net ranking with the Texas Southern loss. The bad loss to Maryland cost us 18 in Net Ranking.

Do you want something to choke on? We didn't beat Quad 4 USF by enough & LOST a point. The same thing with Quad 3 Missouri, we LOST 6 points despite the win. Again with Quad 4 UGA, we LOST 5 points despite the win.

Taking our foot off the gas in blowout wins cost us a lot of points as well. The coaching staff should know this.

 

since when does margin of victory mean squat? a win is a win, a loss is a loss. so we are in with 2 or 3 games where we win by 2 or 3 points more?

 

I just checked, they no longer use scoring margin directly. The site where I got the numbers says they do but it's outdated. It's now part of offensive & defensive efficiency numbers used for the Net calculation. "Net efficiency is a team’s offensive efficiency (points per possession) minus its defensive efficiency (opponent points per possession)." What Are NET Rankings? Understanding College Basketball's New Ranking System

 

I respectfully disagree and would presume it has an enormous impact.

 

It doesn’t speak well for the program when you even have to go through this exercise.