2022 NCAA Tournament Outlook

Ha, Canadian...but my older brother was a Vikings fan so that made my younger brother and me Vikings fans too. Back when they were the "Purple People Eaters". Unfortunately they haven't done much eating since then...

 

Outlook took a hit tonight. Gonna need a miracle now

 

I'm no math surgeon, but a better than 1 out of 3 chance of this team making the tournament seems absurd at this point.

 

You have to get some kind of award for coming up with the phrase “math surgeon.” So, I am awarding you the word smith of the week award for combining math with surgeon. Well done.

 

No, that sounds about right. We have to beat uga and vandy (both on the road) and either one of UK, Arky, Aubrin or win at least 2 in the SEC tourney. I'd give that about a 36% chance of pulling off and it more likely be lose one to uga or vandy, and all 3 of the last and 1 and done in Tampa. It will not surprise me to end the season on an 8-game losing streak (9 if we make the NIT with a 16-16 record). I'm not a Debbie Downer, I just have no confidence in this team. They can't shoot very well and lack basketball smarts.

 

Well one thing I'll say is White's teams struggle to put any significant streak together in including losing streaks so an 8 game skid would surprise me personally.

 

I can't imagine an 8 game losing streak, but it's also hard to see a path to 20 wins regular season plus SEC Tournament. 19-14 feels likely and that would come up short of a bid.
18-13 reg season
1-1 tournament
Again just a guess...
I could talk myself into a win over ark or Auburn, but I feel like a Vandy loss may be more likely at this point.

 

I don't think an 8-game streak will happen either, but on the flip side, this team is quite capable of pulling off such a stint.

 

Aey Lad!

 

As bad as the A&M loss was, a win vs Auburn on Saturday puts the Gators back on track to get into the tournament assuming they win 2 of 3 vs Arkansas, at UGA and at Vandy.

In fact, even with a loss vs Auburn, win those 3 games and Florida will be back on the bubble probably needing at least 1 SECt win to get in.

However, does anyone really feel even somewhat confident Florida will win 3 more regular season games? A win vs Auburn Saturday would be a monstrous win and at least give the Gators a realistic shot of winning 2 of these 3 games. A loss vs Auburn and its extremely unlikely the Gators will win the next 3 game. Not sure Florida has a shot vs UK but the Gators might have to win that game if they don't knock of Auburn.

 

Even with the win against Auburn, CBS has us as the second team left out of the dance. I see us at 19-12 at season's end. If we win a game in the tourney, that should be 20-13 after the tournament and then we're either in or out on the bubble. A loss in the SEC tournament makes it a moot point.

 

It will be moot because we'll probably win out the rest of the way and get the automatic bid at 24-10 on our way to the national championship.

 

This win helps, but we are probably still only 30 percent or so to make the tournament.
If we win against Arkansas we are legitimately in the conversation, but think of it this way…
When the conference tournaments start often 2 full seed lines on the bubble get eaten up from upsets in one bid leagues or bubble teams making runs.
So to make the tournament, we would either have to be up to about a ten seed come SEC tournament time (I.e. move up three seed lines in our last four games) to feel somewhat safe, or survive our last four games so we are in the conversation (2-2), and then win likely 2 in the sec tourney. And one of those would likely to be a quad one ir strong quad 2 win.

Long way to go to get a bid.

 

Scenario 1 - If the Gators somehow win 3 of the next 4 and get to 10 SEC regular season wins, than imo they're an absolute lock. No way a winning record in the SEC this year doesn't get the Gators an at large bid regardless of what happens in the SECt. Plus it would pretty much mean the Gators had 1 or 2 more Quad 1 wins.

Scenario 2 - the Gators win 2 of their last 4, but the wins are vs Vandy and UGA. Under this scenario, Florida most likely needs 1 SECt win to get in unless bubble teams struggle and there are very few conference tournament upsets. Realistically better make sure you get an SECt win which will be far from an easy game. Certainly be sweating it out in this scenario if they lost their 1st game of the SECt. Would need some help if they did lose that game.

Scenario 3 - the Gators win the next 2, but lose to Vandy and UK, than they may need a win in the SECt, but I think they'd have a much better shot than scenario 2. Arkansas is another Quad 1 team sure to be ranked in the top 20 after beating Tenn, so this is another huge opportunity for the Gators. Having wins vs Ohio St, Auburn and Arkansas might just be enough as long as they beat UGA. Under this scenario, 1 SECt win should lock it up for the Gators, but a loss and probably will need a little help.

Scenario 4 - Gators beat UK and UGA. - I think the Gators most likely get in the tournament if the Gators beat UK and win 1 other SEC regular season win even if they lost their 1st game in the SECt. 2 wins vs top 5 teams in March with an out of conference win vs Ohio St. should be enough. However, the UK game is their toughest remaining game and if they somehow lose 2 of their next 3, it would be a tall order to pull that one off.

With the win vs Auburn, Florida is definitely back in contention for an at large big. Have to at least get to 9-9 in conference or will need a deep run in the SECt. Let's start with a win Tuesday.

 

I love when people rate an obvious exaggeration as "optimistic".

 

Teeechnically they're not wrong though