War in Ukraine

Putin not only does not want NATO in Ukraine, he also does not want a western style democracy in Ukraine. The prospect of that matasizing into Russia scares the hell out of him. There is also his lingering butthurt over losing the cold war and the breakup of the USSR
A bit of a gamble that thing don't spiral out of control via a vis WWI, ending up in an extinction event nuclear war. He has allied himself closely with china, further complicating things.
He knows we will not go to war with him if he invades Ukraine and that we won't sacrifice american cities in any kind of all out effort to stop him.

 

With his 48 years in public service to our country, I have the utmost confidence that President Biden will make all the right decisions on behalf of the United States of America.

 

It's really the Germans and European nations that are at risk here. If they don't care about what Russia does right on their doorstep, not sure what the U.S. can do other than talk a big game and "condemn" whatever the Russians are thinking about doing.

The Nord Stream 2 pipeline is basically a German-Russian project. That would seem to make the Germans a major player as far as what could happen via sanctions. The U.S. can damage the overall Russian economy in retaliation for sure, but if the gas money is flowing out of Europe, the oligarchs are going to still get the $$$ while the Russian people suffer. For sanctions to work, the Europeans have to basically close off and isolate Russia. But this would require them to totally reject Russian gas. That seems... unlikely.

 

Putin wants a corrupt puppet government so his cronies can siphon off the oil and gas billions unchecked, like they are able to do in several other former Soviets satellite states, including basically all of Ukraine's neighbors. Ukraine itself had a corrupt pro-Russian government, until their people finally ousted it in 2014. People might recall that a certain Paul Manafort actually worked for this ousted/corrupt former government.

 

Biden v. Putin, RepubliQan pretzel machine.

 

If Russia invades Ukraine again, the NATO counties have to decide whether to intervene. This is clearly not Biden’s choice alone, as any decision involves a war in Europe. That said, what is the popular support here for a war in Europe, ramped up military production, a draft and disrupted economies?

 

I think Hunter Biden will swoop in at the last minute with his Burisma partners and negotiate a peaceful solution.

 

Biden was guilty of being overly optimistic in his assessments of how wonderful Afghanistan would be after the U.S. troop withdrawal, and he seems to be overly pessimistic over the circumstances in Ukraine. And by being pessimistic in his public statements, he is basically giving Russia a green light to invade, admitting that he will do nothing. An effective president needs to convince Putin that there will be repercussions for invading another country, without specifying what those repercussions are. That gives him a full range of options if an invasion occurs, and gives Putin something to think about before he decides whether to invade.

Biden should invite a Ukrainian delegation to D.C., as well as European leadership (Germany, England, France, etc.) and maybe Canada and Australia. It wouldn't matter if everyone just played cards behind closed doors, Putin will be concerned that there will be a coordinated effort to stop his invasion. An added bonus: the gallery might convince Ukraine to stop some of the corruption that pervades their government and society if it makes them a more attractive country to defend.

 

I’m sure MAGA nation will be rooting for Daddy Vladdy just like their leader Trump was

 

NATO goes as the US goes. No NATO countries will take on Putin if Joe doesn’t have their back, and Joe, being a lifelong politician has never had anyones back except his own for 79 years.

Biden is boxed in a corner. His handlers know it and Putin knows it. The US general population has no stomach for a war over Ukraine, and even if they did, Biden has no way to pay for one.

Putin will take Ukraine, and won’t pay much of a price for it.

 

Biden has threatened them with sanctions, i assume if they invade then the U.S. would basically kitchen sink every possible economic sanction against Russia and their oligarchs.

There’s a certain reality that nobody believes the U.S. would put boots on the ground. So making a military threat would not be credible. Not unless the NATO nations all agreed. The U.S. cannot make a unilateral threat with any credibility. We can certainly supply Ukraine with aid, but have to be careful with that too, as any goods we give Ukraine could just as easily end up in the Russians hands or even ultimately on the black market or in the hands of terrorists.

 

Ukraine is explicitly not a NATO country and not covered by the treaty. That is Putin’s false pretense, it’s one of his “conditions”, that Ukraine will never be in NATO.

The ballsy move would be to bring them into NATO post haste, and call the Russians bluff.

 

That’s the Catch 22 for NATO. They don’t really want Ukraine. They’re too corrupt. That ballsy move would be the only reason NATO would want to.

And now that he is in position, Putin would have everything before NATO could even vote on it.

 

I assume “stability” has something to do with it, and they don’t have much. They were basically a Putin puppet state (with Paul Manafort as advisor!) until the people rose up and ousted that corrupt Russian influence in 2014. So yeah, not enough time to go through whatever the “normal” process would be for adding a NATO member even if there were inclinations to do that. I’m just saying, giving them some sort of emergency “status” would be the most obvious way to call Putin’s bluff.

 

It would seem Germany must be the main player here, outside of the U.S.

With Nordstream 2 obviously the U.S. position has been “not a good idea”. But has not really been able to convince ze Germans. If the Germans are willing to use it as leverage against Russian invasion. (on top of threat of maximum sanctions), that could be informative. If not, that would also be informative (and not in a good way).

 

Interesting release from the UK.

Kremlin plan to install pro-Russian leadership in Ukraine exposed

 

Right on cue:
Marjorie Taylor Greene claims Biden is backing Ukraine against Russia because Ukraine 'has dirt on Hunter Biden'

 

Tucker Carlson-fueled Republicans drop tough-on-Russia stance