Coronavirus in the United States - news and thoughts

I have a friend who’s an ICU nurse, in Orlando, and works the “Covid ward” specifically. He says admissions are up and that they are “fear based.”

 

The delta wave was horrible. Anyone that dismissed the virus during that wave must either be a sociopath or completely ignorant to what was going on due to their media “choices”.

We already know the Omicron is less deadly on a % basis, the problem with the Omicron variant is that it is spreading like 5x faster than anything we’ve seen before. It’s quite crazy, I remember the modeling chart from a couple weeks ago (when it was first emerging out of South Africa) which presented a vertical line of cases far exceeding prior peaks, it was literally like 5x of the delta peak. Some were mocking it, but once again the guys who study this knew what they were talking about. This was after they witnessed South Africa so it was pretty simple math for them.

The issue is this: even *if* it’s 1/5th as dangerous, 5x the spread brings you to the same place in terms of demands on health care. It actually makes things far worse in terms of testing and people needing “minor” healthcare, and people calling out sick.

The “good” news is at the pace it spreads this wave should burn out quickly (some models have it 4-6 weeks cycle) and hopefully the ICU/deaths peak won’t set new highs or will even resume its decline relatively quickly. But as of now we are still well north of 1000 lives per day…

 

By “admitted” you mean waiting in the ER or in holding rooms, right?

A hospital doesn’t admit a person based on “fear”. Admission in a hospital means inpatient services, it has a specific meaning. Nobody is getting admitted over a scratchy throat. They will evaluate at the ER and if a person is not ill they will be sent home or sent to an antibody clinic. If a person is admitted they must need oxygen or overnight observation… I.e. they actually are seriously ill.

I can see people showing up and flooding the ER just as they line up at testing sites, perhaps this is what you mean. But I don’t see a hospital admitting people based on “fear”. Especially if they are short on beds.

 

I presume he means they think think they have “Covid” but don’t. But never mind my friend, I submit that fear underlies the whole of what we’ve experienced, the last 22 months, and that it has has yielded dark and devastating consequences.

 

I don’t know anyone who dismissed the delta wave. I know some that will say people did because they did not do what they expected them to do. But I get the feel you are trying to say that anyone who did not take a new drug is someone who dismissed it? I could be wrong. But if that is the case…it is short sighted and wrong.

 

And still with the same debunked, morally bankrupt response. Reminds me of that old Tina Turner tune "trollin', trollin', trollin' down the river.."

 

Anyone who didn't get vaxed and doesn't have a valid medical reason to do so is at some level dismissive of the seriousness of covid.

 

looks like it is going to get worse before it gets better. levels in wastewater are a precursor to cases hitting the hospitals.

Jupiter: Wastewater testing predicts COVID-19 cases (wpbf.com)

Two weeks ago, tests showed the wastewater had the highest levels of COVID-19 since the pandemic began. Since then, cases have risen dramatically. Howard said they were all surprised when they saw the latest results on Wednesday.

“We saw another very notable increase in our virus concentration in the wastewater,” he said. Considering the results two weeks ago showed the highest levels of COVID-19 since the pandemic began. Howard said these results were five times higher than the previous tests.

“We figured it would probably be higher, but we didn’t think that it would be the magnitude that it is,” he said. “A five times increase in the number is one that really stands out.”
And Howard said that really tells the community what’s coming next. “The trend is still moving up at a very rapid rate,” he said. “And we very likely will see increased numbers of cases next week.”


Wastewater testing detects record levels of COVID-19 in Central Florida - Orlando Sentinel

“This is just another meaningful data point that helps to confirm what we are seeing in the case numbers,” said Jason Salemi, a public health researcher at the University of South Florida. “It is the largest and the most rapid increase of cases that we have had in Florida.”

Wastewater monitoring has been likened to a Doppler radar early-warning system for COVID-19, picking up infections without symptoms or that were never documented through laboratory testing. Viral fragments are shed through the stool, and higher concentrations in samples are typically followed by higher case numbers.

Samples collected Monday showed numbers more than double previous record highs for each service area. For instance, the Eastern Water Reclamation Facility reported nearly 8.3 million gene copies per liter, compared with its record high of about 3 million in July.

 

again…get over yourself. I was tagging the story for follow-up as the husband did come out and confirm she wasn’t vaxxed.

There are some maybe on the fence that aren’t vaxxed. Maybe it will encourage them to go thru with it. With vast majority of icu Covid patients are unvaxed

there are others who follow bad information on the internet like they are in a cult. Easily led by bad info. Unfortunately not much can be done for them.

 

In the past you were pretty unequivocal that those that are healthy have no risk. "Low" risk is an equivocation for you.

 

You are the one using someone’s death. Not me that needs to get over oneself.

Healthcare/Medicine is not black and white like so many seem to think.

 

Nonsense. I have always said low risk. I have said people can die.

You are equivocating your biased belief of my views and what I said to what you want them to be because they are not in line with yours.

Please do not lie and fabricate where I stand. I have no problem owning my stance. And I will own changes in my stances.

As of now the data still supports the healthy are low risk. And nothing in the statement indicates “no” risk. As much as your mind might want it to? Really…how in the world do you get low is the same as no?

 

Yes, and I hope you are right, but which is worse - 1% death rate with 600k cases or 1.5% death rate with 200k cases.

 

So you are learning - good job.

 

Now you are concerned with lying?

To your credit you have backed off your dogmatic stance at least a bit. Anything I'd progress.

You keep saying "low". Low is a relative number. Some people think 0.33% of the population is "low". Others will think close to 1 million covid deaths is a lot. The number of hospitalizations is higher. Add on people seriously sick who didn't go to ER is even more. Add on long covid even more.

Somebody who is not old and not immunocomprised has lower odds. But probably well more than 100,000 in that category (that is a guess, I could be wrong) had died. Is that "low"? The percent of population is low, but higher than murders+suicides+car accident deaths per year. Is that "low"?

 

well it has been 2 weeks since you said florida would catch new york in new cases, sadly, that is not true.in those 2 weeks new york has averaged 56,525 new daily cases. florida at 43,706. in those 2 weeks new york has had 180,000 more new cases, so when is evil florida going to catch new york, seems if this lasts long new york will pass florida in new cases and deaths.

 

Yes low is a relative number. Your healthy kid is at more risk on their drive to school each day than they are from dying of Covid.

 

i know this is a little apples/oranges, but the death rate yesterday, ie deaths recorded in regards to new cases was .25%, in 2 or 3 weeks we will see actually how it is when as predicted by experts, omicron burns out.

 

Man you really got me on this one. What a triumph for you!

 

Has anyone else noticed that certain people are always quick to pivot to death rate when a new surge starts, and never mention it as the surge is tailing off?