Coronavirus in the United States - news and thoughts

Sorry this makes no sense to me. 50% effective means your risk is reduced by half.

 

Don't disagree, but a vaccine at 50% effectiveness is still (actually more than) 50 times more effective than not being vaccinated at all. IOW, the comparison is of vaxx effectiveness b/t vaxxed & unvaxxed not b/t vaxx effectiveness at one point in time vs a later point in time.

I also didn't seek to factor in age or health differences etc., or of sickness/hospitalizations/deaths. It was just a rudimentary calculation.

 

No its twice as effective.

 

People can make the decision themselves whether to get vaccinated. The reality is the vaccine is not what it was sold as…

 

That would assume not being vaxxed is 25% effective. But not being vaxxed offers no protection and since 50% is not 50x larger than zero I used 1.

 

Did you even read the report you linked? Here are the results

The rate of a positive COVID-19 test varies by age and vaccination status. The rate of a positive COVID-19 test is substantially lower in vaccinated individuals compared to unvaccinated individuals up to the age of 29. In individuals aged greater than 30, the rate of a positive COVID-19 test is higher in vaccinated individuals compared to unvaccinated (Table 5). This is likely to be due to a variety of reasons, including differences in the population of vaccinated and unvaccinated people as well as differences in testing patterns.

The rate of hospitalisation within 28 days of a positive COVID-19 test increases with age, and is substantially greater in unvaccinated individuals compared to vaccinated individuals.

The rate of death within 28 days or within 60 days of a positive COVID-19 test increases with age, and again is substantially greater in unvaccinated individuals compared to fully vaccinated individuals.
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Says it right there. Hospitalization rates and death rates are substantially greater in unvaccinated individuals. Unfortunately, for the elderly, even being fully vaccinated may not be able to save someone who gets a breakthrough case. But for everyone else, it will likely keep them alive, and out of the hospital.

And it's not surprising, and in fact, expected that the closer an area reaches herd immunity numbers, the number of overall cases and hospitalizations will come from breakthrough cases. It's just a function of math, as the virus has less and less unvaccinated and unprotected people to infect. Meanwhile, breakthrough cases per 100,000 people remain the same, but the number of those vaccinated go up. It's simple math.

Here's a made up scenario, using made up numbers to prove the point. In a population of 200,000 people, 50% vaccinate/natural immunity, which for our case, are equal, if breakthrough cases infect 1 in 1000, we'd expect 100 cases. If unvaxxed cases were 10X worse, or 1 in 100, we'd expect 1,000 unvaccinated cases.

Now, if 85% of the population had some sort of immunity, we'd expect 170 breakthrough cases, and 300 unvaxxed cases. The percentage of breakthrough cases increases as the percent vaccinated goes up. Whereas at 50% vaccinated, breakthrough cases represented less than 10% of all cases. At 85%, they are over 35% of all cases! And again, these are made up numbers for simple math purpses and have nothing to do with COVID rates.

This scenario doesn't account for many other variables. For example, age. With COVID, age is a major factor. Another example, population density. If the unvaccinated live in rural areas with less person-to-person interaction, and a low case count, then it might skew the numbers, as a virus like COVID requires contact. Similarly, if the vaccinated skew more urban and suburban, where person-to-person contact happens on a daily basis, there is greater likelihood of a person running into an infected person.

Bottom line, the report you link says it best. Vaccination reduces a person's chances of catching COVID, and significantly reduces hospitalization and death rates.

 

So if a vaccine is 1% effective then by your definition it is infinity times better than zero. This makes no mathematical sense at all, but I'm done debating this side issue.

 

New study out of Australia showing a vaccinated person is 20X more likely to get a breakthrough case from an unvaccinated person than another vaccinated person. This is because an unvaccinated person is 10X likely more to get COVID due to the protection the vaccine gives, and another study that vaccinated people are less likely to transmit the disease due faster recovery times.

 

If say vax A is 1% and vax B is 50% then vax B is 50x more effective.

It’s why I qualified with faiap recognizing 50% is not 50x greater than 0

 

Writes this to a person with PhD who regularly conducts and publishes research . . .

 

Dude, step away from the computer and think about what you typed.

 

Doesn't matter if they read the report they linked. They have a magic ability to extrapolate data that neither you nor I could possibly comprehend.

 

Explain to me how I am wrong?

In any case, I posted the true numbers best we can tell per the CDC.

 

source?

 

Who Had Covid-19 Vaccine Breakthrough Cases?

Pretty interesting data on effectiveness of vaccines over time. Decreasing effect vs infection but still 6x as effective vs unvaccinated. Death effectiveness more durable at around 12x. Strong across groups, except 80+ effect not as strong.

All this is very consistent with Israeli data published a couple of months ago.

 

Wow. You aren't kidding. A lot to unpack there. I made it through the first 1 1/2 chapters but have already recognized a lot of posters in his descriptions. Lots of BIS reactions going around.

 

what is was sold as?! What does that even mean?

Interesting how irrational anti-vaxers embrace unproven treatments. But, some kooks don’t think we landed on the moon. How do you tell someone like that they are obviously wrong?

 

It was sold as the silver bullet. It was sold as a way to not get Covid. They were sold as perfect vaccines and not the imperfect leaky vaccines they are. Most people do not understand how vaccines work. Especially a leaky one. These happen to be very leaky and wane quite quickly on top of that.

 

I have never disagreed the vaccines offer a small therapeutic benefit.

But we are pushing new drugs in people that do not need them. And that is wrong. If people want them. Great. They are far more beneficial to certain groups (Vaccinated or Unvaccinated).

 

Like you, clearly.