Coronavirus in the United States - news and thoughts

Whenever govt pushes anything this hard ignoring the millions who've already had it should cause everyone pause. It's not like they really care about the tax cattle, look no further than take the jab or your family starves. Big money political kickbacks in play here.

 

Herd immunity isn't based on just adult population. But total population. Currently, about 15% of the UK population is under 12 years old. Considering the belief is any population needs 90% to reach herd immunity with Delta, it is impossible to reach herd immunity with adults alone. Throw in the 12.5% of total population that are adults who are unvaccinated (15% of all adults), then in the UK, you are looking at a total vaccinated population of 75%, give or take a percentage point or two. That's enough, with Delta, to still have the virus raging through the population.

Still, places with higher vaccination rates will generally fare better than places with lower vaccination rates. We do see that in number of UK cases per 100,000 as compared to the US. We can also see that when it comes to states that have the lower vaccination rates, and then compare the states that have the highest infection rates per 100,000 residents. You also see correlation between states with the lower number of cases and higher vaccination rates, such as PA, WA, and VT for example.

The vaccine isn't a cure. It's a vaccine, and all vaccines have failure rates that cause breakthrough cases. Had we vaccinated quick enough to avoid Delta, maybe then the UK would be at herd immunity. But considering the rate COVID mutates, this was likely always a pipe dream. But just because 85% of an adult population is vaccinated, with Delta, does not mean herd immunity has been reached. The best guess is 90% of the total population, and that includes children under 12, which aren't eligible to get the vaccine except on a trial basis. In the US, this will likely change in the next few weeks.

 

Come on now...

You used the 7 day death average. England is 102 and the US is 1660. That is just under 94% difference. UK has a population of 55 million with 18% over the age of 65. The United States is 330 million with 16% over the age of 65.

Throw in obesity and you are trying make it look like your remarks earlier had weight to them. Which they do not. You tried to compare equally a country with 1/6 the population of another and act like it was apples to apples. And even if the populations were exactly to the same...we know that this disease attacks a certain demographic. One that is obese. And we are far worse.

 

No, that isn't how the math works at all. The US has a 7-day death average of 16.27x, which is 1,627% higher. The 90% is after you control for the relative population (deaths/population US)/(deaths/population UK) = 1.9. That is 90% higher.

Now, you only want to focus on obesity and not age, given that the UK is older. Why?

 

Amen!

I cannot believe so many smart people are not questioning what is happening. Seriously.

There are so many red flags.

 

It's sad that some presumed UF grads don't understand trend analysis and basic comparative statistics.

 

Coronavirus in the U.S.: Latest Map and Case Count

NYT shows recent death trend of US at 0.45 per 100k vs England trend of.18 per 100k. UK is slightly higher than.18 due to Scotland northern Ireland Wales, although all are still lower than the US.

 

Yeah, I was using the world-o-meter moving 7 day average, although that might be underreporting the US figures a bit (it is actually already up to 95% higher than the UK) because much of the data isn't in for today for the US (and there are some states like Florida that aren't initially reporting most of the deaths).

 

Based upon the vaccine's inability to prevent peer to peer transmission (on an absolute basis for sure, seems to provide some protection on this front), plus it's waning efficacy, we will never reach HI.

Community immunity: A situation in which a sufficient proportion of a population is immune to an infectious disease (through vaccination and/or prior illness) to make its spread from person to person unlikely. Even individuals not vaccinated (such as newborns and those with chronic illnesses) are offered some protection because the disease has little opportunity to spread within the community. Also known as herd immunity.

 

Seems to me, this depends on two things: (1)what reinfection rates tend to be in the long term. What is the R0 going forward on future “waves” (2)what happens when people are reinfected or vaccinated people are exposed, at what rates are people sent to hospitals or their deaths.

Clearly there is not going to be “herd immunity” that completely eradicates the virus. But it could be that it eventually sends drastically less people to the hospital compared to
first infection, that is potentially also a result of herd immunity.

 

We just lost another officer in our area who works with my brother. Young amd healthy and didn't think he would need a vaccine or regeneron treatments because he was such a healthy fit guy. Sadly he passed. I don't think the 99% recovery rate that people boast about so much means anything to his family now.

I don't live in fear. I'm actually not worried for myself. I had covid with minimal symptoms and almost a year later got a vaccine. I don't watch major news networks and think both parties screwed the pooch politically weaponizing the response. I was always against shutdowns and think masks aren't worn properly so for the most part they are ineffective although they have their place.

I don't get why people can't understand the randomness of covid especially Delta. I see it firsthand at a local level and no national news story or propaganda guided my decisions. At the end of the day to each their own but the statistics of the "recovered" flaunted to mock the severity of this is pretty dismissive to the people who have had lives ruined and ended by covid including the "rare" healthy or young person who thought they were safe.

Statistical Anomalies Still have names and belonged to families.

 

Endemic Covid-19 Has Arrived in Portugal. This Is What It Looks Like.


Here is an example of a country that has nearly everyone vaccinated. Their death rate now is about 1/8th of the US. Obviously it still exists but is far less. Prior to Delta variants deaths had gotten down to 1 death per day - now it is about 6.

For all those idiots trying to say the vax doesn't work, etc etc yet another example that it does.



Close to 100% of people over the age of 50 have received at least one vaccine dose, according to the Portuguese government. For those between the ages of 25 and 49 it is 95% and from 12 to 17 it is 88%. Some 89% of Portugal’s entire population of 10 million has had at least one vaccine dose, not far behind the rate in the world-leading United Arab Emirates, compared with 65% in the U.S. and 73% in the U.K., according to Oxford University’s Our World in Data.

Portugal has been averaging six deaths a day for the past month, compared with almost 300 at the peak in January. Adjusted for population, the current rate equates to about 200 in the U.S. The deaths plunged to one or two a day in May and June before rising to 20 in July. The number of new daily recorded infections and hospitalizations has been trending down since the summer. The country is now averaging about 750 new cases a day, compared with almost 13,000 in January. There are about 320 people hospitalized, down from almost 6,700 at the peak.

 

The problem is, details matter in these discussions. People who are arguing about immunity from infection conveniently ignore the fact that in multiple studies, it has been shown that only some (65%) of those infected and who have had their blood tested, demonstrate an immune response. Which means.......people who can prove that they had COVID with a PCR result, will also need an antibody test to confirm if they did or did not mount an immune respone to the virus. All of which is technically doable.....but on the scale required to do the testing, confirm the findings, pay for all of testing (which the individual should bare the cost of) it creates a nearly impossible challenge in logistics to determine who really does carry immunity and who does not.

Disappointed how many supposedly smart people want to ignore all of those facts.

 

We are destroying peoples livelihoods over the idea that a person at statistically hardly any risk must take a new drug.

There is nothing mocking about it. We literally are destroying people because some feel better by forcing someone to do something that as you point out is random chance for healthy people. I don’t disagree that random bad things happen. That is life. Using this disease to destroy people is evil.

 

Yet again you are not accounting for natural immunity. It's almost like you don't want anyone to take what you are saying seriously. Anyone discussing herd immunity without also counting natural immunity isn't having a rational discussion.

 

These new drugs are not working to slow the spread. Those with natural immunity are not the issue. Regardless of whether they have enough antibodies to make the public health officials happy…they are just not getting reinfected. And that is using the broad way of defining reinfection as someone who tested positive three months or more apart. It is extremely rare in that case. Let alone the probable or know where it basically just does not happen.

We don’t need to do those tests.

These new drugs are not working real well. Thankfully the monoclonal treatments are. Which is why so many vaccinated are using them. And that is a good thing. As we should want people to use things that work. Even when other things are not….

 

. What is really sad is that people think like you. Why don’t you tell us what this country would be like if it weren’t for the vaccines? How many infections? How many case? How many hospitalized? How many with serious post infection conditions? How many dead? What about the economic consequences of the virus running unchecked? The costs of treatment and monoclonals? The effect of those not well, like immunocompromised? Elderly? Let’s hear some real numbers to support your vision. Since you ignore all the science that shows what utter garbage almost everything you post is.

 

No. Those who propagate lies like you regularly post are evil.

 

A 1% death rate would be 3.3 million people. Not counting those who get severely sick and recover with sequella.

 

False. For example, The studies in hospitalization rates show the vaccines are working. You ignore them and keep posting these flat out falsehoods. The reason vaccinated people who get infected use the monoclonals is that they work. But, the non-vaccinated use them and end up in hospitals at a rate 11 times higher than the vaccinated. Just stop posting falsehoods. Try posting links.