Coronavirus in the United States - news and thoughts

You werent very specific, you just said check back in "fall." Just letting you know that fall begins this month lol. If I were you, I'd probably want to hedge and say "late fall."

 

Sometime this fall. Better?

 

This can't be right. Somebody call cyber ninjas to figure this out.

 

Well, September 22 will be "sometime" this fall. You probably want to buy yourself more time than that.

 

For those interested in comparing death rates rather than case rates, the top ten, based on deaths reported yesterday, are:

Louisiana
Georgia
South Carolina
Arkansas
Connecticut
Texas
Kentucky
North Carolina
Nebraska
Alabama


The bottom ten (fewest deaths per million) are:

Maine
Massachusetts
Virginia
New Jersey
North Dakota
Delaware
New Hampshire
Wisconsin
Florida
Missouri

Florida has the second lowest rate of deaths because we are misleading about the number of deaths in our state.

The following states reported zero deaths, or didn't report deaths yesterday:
Michigan
Oklahoma
Iowa
Nevada
Kansas
Rhode Island
Alaska
Wyoming

 

Coronavirus in the U.S.: Latest Map and Case Count

Pretty much same answer.

 

The trend makes more sense.

 

I love this game. Fun with numbers. FL isn’t fudging numbers. In fact the CDC prefers the new way Fl is doing it. Any Epidemiologist would tell you it’s better to get the data on the date of infection and date of death than dumps weeks later. Tough to make policy that way. It’s like you and the Miami Herald like to play “what can we blame DeSantis for next”. But hey, don’t let a few facts get in the way.

 

no it’s not Not even close. Good effort though.

 

The problem is that Florida’s numbers have to catch up in order to be accurately reflected

 

I was referencing the statement you made about people being hospitalized or dying “with covid” when their primary problem is something else. Front line pulmonologists don’t agree with you. Interesting posts in the Den. Can’t link them here because you have to pay to read and post there.

 

New cases in FL (by week) down nearly 15% from peak (previous week).

http://ww11.doh.state.fl.us/comm/_p...rchive/covid19-data/covid19_data_20210903.pdf

Go GATORS!
,WESGATORS

 

First, obviously you can't both accuse somebody of "p-hacking" and say that the results aren't outside of the 95% confidence interval. That is absurd. P-hacking is done to take results that aren't outside of the 95% confidence interval and move it outside of that interval. BTW, the results are outside of the 95% confidence interval and I see no specific evidence of p-hacking (intervention or control group assignment was done a priori).

 

There was a (much smaller) increase in social distancing associated with all of the interventions with the exception of at Mosques. However, here is what the authors had to say in the paper to address that concern on page 32, in which they suggested two primary ways from their data in which they are able to make the claim that mask wearing increases had an effect: 1. That there is a difference between surgical and cloth mask villages in Covid but not in physical distancing. 2. There was no change in the highest risk behavior, crowded Mosques.

 

Well, first, they did specifically exclude one village because it was a massive outlier in terms of baseline rates. Second, the point of randomization is to deal with concerns like this. There is no evidence that high spread/low spread villages had any differences in their assignment probability. As such, they are just as likely to be treated as not treated and this concern can be dismissed with the design of the study. Finally, as an additional check, they controlled for baseline symptom rates, as stated in every regression result table in the paper.

If it was social distancing that caused the differences, why did they see such different results depending on the type of masks handed out? That seems unlikely.

They tested people in this study for Covid with antibody tests. Having Covid was not self-reported.

 

Front line pulmonologists do agree with me. One of my best friends is one at Tampa General. But hey, I guess I’ll just go with a random internet guy…

 

Already explained it. Read it again.

 

Already explained this.

 

Mask mandate was reinstated 2.5 months ago in Israel. They only have the highest case rate in the world. So I guess they’d be even higher if they didn’t wear masks…