Coronavirus in the United States - news and thoughts

. Idiocy is driving the pandemic here. First, if the vaccine works for a limited period to time, it works. That means disease can largely be prevented for the life of the vaccine. Just that boosters are needed. Second, a vaccine that wanes in preventing disease prevention still works if it mitigates the severity of a deadly disease. The country is running a large de facto longitudinal study right now. We have a divide among vaccinated and unvaccinated. Severe illness, hospitalizations and death occur at very high, statistically significant levels among the unvaccinated and the vaccinated. The poster you are responding to is an extreme right wing science denier who doesn’t care where the data is falling. He is not even smart enough to understand that his “natural immunity” will eventually wane because the lasting effect of immunity depends on the immune system, not whether the protein that triggers it was live virus or the same protein deactivated. And, he had a mild case (hence likely a milder immune reaction) anyway. He doesn’t care about science, virology, immunology or epidemiology. He can’t get past, “vaccinated people test positive” or “a vaccinated person died” because it doesn’t fit his political agenda. And nothing you or anyone else says or does will change his mind.

 

For clarification, I wonder if you could define "failing" in this case. I think that this is at the crux of the disagreement that people are having. "Failing" is being defined differently by different people.

As for "failing", I will say this. Data in the US indicating that over 50% of those hospitalized with infection following vaccination are immunocomprmised. Thus, the CDC decision to recommend a booster for that part of the population. For my definition, that is still not "failing".

Based on what I have read and heard, beyond the scaring NY Times headlines, antibody protection does seem to diminish after about 8 months. Some say 6, some say 8, but by and large 8. However, extrapolating the duration of observed T-cell germination sites, it was expected that the T-cell response would likely remain strong over a much longer period of time, if not actual lifetime. That would mean people can get infected, but the duration of any illness would be much shorter and you would have a much lower probability of severe disease or death.

Additionally, a couple of subtle, yet very important points concerning this.

1. No one can define what a "necessary level of antibodies" is against infection, against disease. Research is not far enough along to have optimized any of our mitigation strategies honestly.
2. Another very often overlooked fact, the Pfizer/BioNTech shot was 30 uGrams 2x. The Moderna shot was 100 uGrams 2x. Most of what we are hearing about concerning "breakthroughs" is the Pfizer shot. So, did they just not provide a sufficient level of vaccine in the first place relative to the more cautious Moderna dose?? No one is talking about that in the media, but immunologists are sure talking to both Pfizer and Moderna about that.
3. There is not enough research on heterogenius vaccinations, which is likely to produce a stronger, possibly more durable response than continuing to boosts the same technology.

I am, so far, in the camp that does not believe that a boost is needed for those under 65 and not immunocompromised without more data to prove it. That does not mean I do not believe in the vaccine, or that they are failing. They are still a much stronger response, and better protection for the average person with better likely outcomes than becoming infected with a novel virus in my opinion.

 

I haven't discussed boosters, and a vax that keeps people out of the hospital for the most part in roughly one year is beyond what most hoped for.

 

Stolen from Facebook, DeSantis didn't really say this. But I really did laugh out loud when I read it.

 

I’ll admit the vaccines are not working how I expected them to. I thought they would prevent infection in 90% of vaxxed people. So there is a lot of truth to what you are saying. I also never assumed we would need booster shots. Having said that, the vaccines ARE preventing hospitalization and death quite effectively and it’s abundantly clear in the real world data. Now that could certainly change - but RIGHT NOW it’s saving lives and has been since they were rolled out.

 

The vaccine was developed and tested before the delta variant. I was under all the same assumptions as you, however the fact that the virus mutated into something more contagious (and what looks like ) more deadly, was inevitable. The real problem here is when everyone says 'follow the science', the 'science' is a point in time, and in the near future, the 'science' will change.
It is still unclear whether the booster is going to be the same as the original shot, or whether they will tweak it to incorporate the delta and other variants to make it more effective.

 

Totally agree. I'm just saying that its true that most of our expectations regarding vaccine efficacy were not met based on what we were hearing when they first rolled out. Or mine weren't at least. I'm still thrilled that its preventing hospitalization and death and getting the shot is still beyond a no brainer. But I understand what he is saying too.

 

He should be seeking the Regeneron infusion immediately based on this. Hope things turn around for him.

 

We have been in a race of vaccine versus variant for months. A race we're losing, because we still have way too many unvaccinated people in this country. There were articles discussing this race and the potential need for future boosters printed in April of this year. The vaccines were developed against the wild type, and there was always a possibility of variants that could potentially have vaccine resistance. As for booster shots, again, why have spots for four shots if two was only ever going to be needed? The answer is simple, we didn't know if two was going to be enough to do the trick.

 

Judging by what you’re saying this gent could be heading for a world of hurt if he doesn’t get to a hospital. Specially if he’s got diabetes, hypertension or cardiovascular disease to add to his obesity. Those kind of guys go from walking and talking to vent pretty fast. Specially if he’s not taking anything for his Covid. If he stays at 88% sitting still he could easily get into the 70s on exertion. Tell him if he cares about the people that love him he should go to the damn hospital.

 

Tylenol is garbage. I recently got another headache and had to take it all over again!

 

You figure he should have gotten vaccinated?

 

And we, at least I thank you for your efforts. Your posts have been very informative over the last many months.

It is refreshing to see data driven analysis vs narrative driven doublespeak.

I agree with you that I don’t care where the data comes from, if it’s sold data, I’m going to read it, try my best to understand it, make a plan and try to utilize it as best I can.

Please continue posting your findings.

 

Florida Department of Education demands Alachua, Broward schools drop mask mandates

 

Hebrew To English:
This is an important day in the vaccinated R section over the age of 60! In each of the indices (verified, seriously ill and dying) the infection coefficient (R) is lower than 1 in the vaccinated group aged 60+. This may be a turning point in this outbreak, we hope that the trend will continue and "infect" the other groups as well - younger than 60 and not vaccinated.

 

Glad they are doing that. Parental decision. Teachers can be vaxxed.

 

St Johns county started the week with 60 teachers and 95 students covid positive. Ended the week with 75 teachers and 207 student testing positive. 35 more teachers quarantined, 536 more students.

 

Orlando urges reduced water usage as liquid oxygen used to purify water goes to COVID patients