Coronavirus in the United States - news and thoughts

I'm saying it. It's selfish and foolish for an adult to not get vaccinated.

 

This was just published yesterday (5/20) in Science Magazine regarding the Brazilian variant, studying the city of Manaus. From the abstract:

Using a two-category dynamical model that integrates genomic and mortality data, we estimate that P.1 may be 1.7- to 2.4-fold more transmissible and that previous (non-P.1) infection provides 54 to 79% of the protection against infection with P.1 that it provides against non-P.1 lineages. Enhanced global genomic surveillance of variants of concern, which may exhibit increased transmissibility and/or immune evasion, is critical to accelerate pandemic responsiveness. [emphasis added]
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If natural immunity is only 2/3 effective against stopping the Brazil variant, that significantly effects reaching herd immunity if we are to count on people with natural immunity only who do not get the vaccine. And here are more medical professionals warning that we need to increase our pandemic response, i.e. vaccinations, because of the concern over variants. Going to find this article funny to, @gator95?

We shouldn't live our lives in fear. But we also shouldn't be stupid and turn a blind eye to science and medicine. And the above is just another article by more scientists/medical professionals that understand we are in a race between vaccines and variants. And the best weapon we have to "win" the race is the vaccine.

 

You are being trolled with the funny ratings.

 

Let's put things in perspective. About 10% of the country, or 33 million of COVID cases so far. At best, using the latest study, only 79% of these people will have immunity against the latest Brazilian variant. That's only 7.9% of the country, meaning we'd need to hit 67.1% vaccination rate, at minimum, to reach 75% with immunity. No state as of 5/15 had reached over 51% vaccinated. And this is best case scenario. If actual natural immunity from previous COVID cases is worst case 54%, we'd need to hit 69.6% vaccinated to reach the magic 75% number.

And this is just potential herd immunity from the Brazil variant. Next variant could be even worse. Hilarious, isn't it?

 

What is your medical background? A lot of people in the medical community are waiting for more data. I don't find it foolish to just wait a bit longer, especially when I am still taking many of the precautions I was when they were required. (Masking in groups for instance)

 

Yes it's hilarious. Because you think only the reported number of covid cases is that number when the CDC says the number is anywhere from 3-5 times that actual number. But hey, you keep spreading fear. I'll keep laughing at your fear porn.

Cases, Data, and Surveillance

When you start with crappy numbers, you end up with crappy answers. Keep up the panic. Double mask just to be safe.

 

So we are being asked to believe (in this thread I believe) that the deaths may be double or triple what we were hearing. If that is the case than actual cases would be much higher too. All along folks have been posting links telling us that the number is terribly underreported. In reality as much as 30% of the country has had covid.

This article was from two months ago...

"One-third of the U.S. population has already been infected.

The sustained periods of high transmission in the U.S. also mean that by now, quite a large share of the U.S. population has been infected beyond what the tallies of reported cases would indicate. Nationwide, Shaman estimates that about 120 million people have now been infected, just over a third of the U.S. population."
Why The Pandemic Is 10 Times Worse Than You Think

 

Beat me to it.

 

And before anyone moves the goalpost to viral load or severity of illness, that is beside the point. A huge number of people have had Covid. A huge number have been vaccinated.

THAT is why I keep mentioning my governors odd about face on restrictions. I think it is possible that the experts know that a much higher % are indeed immune. And the advice from them tells leaders that we are safer than is being reported.

 

I am rapidly approaching the move on phase with this poster.

Especially when testifying before Congress, most of the CDC was around 60% vaccinated I believe. You would think if anywhere that place would be close to 80-90% vaccinated.

 

You gotta make up your mind. Are the cases way lower or way higher than what is reported?

You can't just flip back and forth between whichever interpretation fits your argument better and expect to be taken seriously.

 

If this were true, then either we would be seeing more places in the US with herd immunity. Or, natural immunity isn't strong enough against the most recent variants. Because if 30% of the population has natural immunity, and most states have over 40% vaccinated, then we should be extremely close to the magic number nation wide, and have surpassed it in some areas.

Take Pima Country (Tucson), for example. About 1 million in population, and over 40% vaccinated. Some areas, like Green Valley, a retirement community 30 minutes S of Tucson, 90% vaccinated. Still about 40 cases a day reported over the last week. Better than the over 75 from two weeks ago, but suggesting we're still not near herd immunity. Especially if the real number is closer to 400 new cases, as your link suggests.

As for ever truly reaching herd immunity? Likely to never truly happen. Especially if there continue to be endemic outbreaks and new variants, as yet another article suggests.

"With emerging variants and pockets of low vaccination coverage, there is no guarantee we'll get there," she said, noting that it's important people realize: "The more people vaccinate, the faster the threat will fade."

"We may never hit herd immunity on a global stage and fully eradicate the virus. But that doesn't mean we won't get back to a sense of normalcy soon. We are already seeing the numbers of new cases and hospitalizations beginning to decline," Meyers added.
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Just another scientist who had no idea what she's talking about, right. Must be practicing for her comedy world tour!

 

I don't flip back and fort on Case counts, just the method used to confirm a positive case. Cases are higher than reported for sure. Hospitalizations are lower(based off child covid+ hospitalizations being 40-45% overstated) and Deaths are lower than reported. All in my opinion. But the big distinction needs to be that the vast majority of people with covid don't even know they have it and that affects the total numbers. I think the CDC could've managed this pandemic much better than they did(PCR Threshold of 40 was stupid, should've been 30). Trump was a disaster for sure. So were the Governors who sent Covid+ patients back to nursing homes. Lots of blame to go around all over. DeSantis was in charge when the unemployment website crashed. That's on him and was a huge issue at a time when people were really struggling.

 

LOL. Go research what happens everywhere as soon as vaccinations start. Cases go up a little bit and then fall off a cliff like they are doing in the US. You stay safe this weekend and make sure to double mask.

 

A lot of people in the medical community are selfish and foolish too. I work in medical research.

 

I know you do. My point is for the average person out here, we will put more stock in some concerns by random medical personnel (on both sides of the vax coin) than some random message board know it all's. If we choose the wrong one it does not make us selfish or foolish. It makes us ill informed. But as long as a person is SINCERELY seeking their own answers, I don't find that foolish. Save that stuff for the anti-vax tin foil folks.

 

Fortunately, 'the average person out there' isn't foolish and selfish enough to not get vaccinated. More than 60% of US adults are now vaccinated and that is why cases are dropping so precipitously. The rest are what are know as free riders who are taking advantage of the situation without having to pay any price.

In economics,

'the free-rider problem is a type of market failure that occurs when those who benefit from resources, public goods (such as public roads or hospitals), or services of a communal nature do not pay for them[1] or under-pay. Free riders are a problem because while not paying for the good (either directly through fees or tolls or indirectly through taxes), they may continue to access or use it. Thus, the good may be under-produced, overused or degraded.[2] Additionally, it has been shown that despite evidence that people tend to be cooperative by nature, the presence of free-riders cause this prosocial behaviour to deteriorate, perpetuating the free-rider problem.'

'Although the term "free rider" was first used in economic theory of public goods, similar concepts have been applied to other contexts, including collective bargaining, antitrust law, psychology, political science, and vaccines.'

Free-rider problem - Wikipedia

 

Vaccinations started in Arizona in January. Been open to the public, 16 and older, since mid-March. We haven't fallen off a cliff yet. A nice decline, for sure, but no cliff.

And I'm vaccinated fully. So is the wife. 15 year old one dose in. We're doing our part to stop the spread of COVID-19. Wish everyone else eligible would too. It's our best chance at winning the race before there is a variant that is vaccine resistant... and we are all back to wearing masks and stay at home orders. I don't want that. Don't think anyone does. Best way to avoid it is getting vaccinated.

 

Link?

 

LOL. You haven’t fallen off a cliff? Come on dude. At least be honest

Arizona Coronavirus Map and Case Count