Coronavirus in the United States - news and thoughts

You sound a lot like people 18 months ago, as COVID-19 was ravaging Italy, saying we'll be fine. It won't happen here. It's just another flu. How did that work out again?

Just because it hasn't happened yet, does not mean it won't. We have no idea if a child dangerous or worse, vaccine resistant variant of COVID-19 will arise. It can certainly happen. Will it? Let's both hope it never does. Want to do your part in making sure no vaccine resistant variant arises? Get vaccinated. Less people with COVID-19, less chance for mutation.

 

Difference is majority of the country over 18 is vaccinated and a lot of others have natural immunity. But you stay sheltered and double mask up. My kids will have a normal summer and school next year without masks. You keep up the what if’s.

 

I'm vaccinated. My wife and teen are too. My 7-year old will get it as soon as he's eligible. We'll be fine.

Meanwhile, the Brazil variant has already been detected in Florida. You keep telling yourself you'll be fine. Nothing to worry about. For your sake, and for your kids' sake, I hope you are correct. Me? I'll keep an eye out for what's going on in the world, and be prepared to be safe, rather than sorry.

 

Oh man, lock everything down again! STAT! You better double mask up. I’m safe, my kids are safe.

 

Not for anything, but the largest percentage of the AZ vaccine is being produced in the UK, with final production at an AZ plant in Wrexham. Beyond that, AZ plants in both Germany and Denmark are also producing the formulations or the final vaccine vials. AZ has also parntered with Valneva to produce 60 million doses at their plant in Livingston. Additionally, AstraZeneca is now partnering with Sanoffi who is making the vaccine at their facilities in Belgium, Italy and Spain.

Suffice to say that any halting of production of the vaccine production in India, or the refusal to export it, is going to hurt the people of India, as well as many in Asia and Africa who were counting on this low cost option.

Europe and North America, Russia and China will scarcely notice.

 

I know a way we can do away with masks, lockdowns, and keep everyone as safe as possible. It's called get everyone eligible vaccinated and reach herd immunity!

 

I know a way to reach herd immunity also. It’s called everyone over 18 get one. Thanks, problem solved.

 

Lol. Nobody here is saying any of that. People here are being ripped for not wanting to get the shot for their kids.
And people from all political spectrums are hesitant here. (In this thread)

 

Vaccinating kids is nothing more than a big pharma money grab...a dicey solution in search of a problem.

 

@AzCatFan you seem terrified.
I mean our liberal governor...with very strict lockdowns and masking for almost a year just shocked everyone with an about face way earlier than expected. Our stat is basically 100% open and mask free.

My assumption is his experts are telling him that we are in a really good place.

If all the what it's you have thrown out were a concern, that guy would have us all in hazmat bubble suits bolt locked into our own homes.

What do you think that you know that he does not?

I believe that for a guy like him to make such an about face way ahead of his previous schedule, tells me we are in a better place than you say.

I have no idea. I just know something changed crazy fast and virtually overnight with the governor's office.

 

It's just amazing how our perspectives have changed in a year. I was so pleased today to see that we only had 77 deaths from covid yesterday in the state and about 3,000 new cases. That is great news, relatively. But just think how we would have thought of something causing the deaths of 77 Floridians in a single day before covid. Now it's cause for celebration

 

Adults 18 and older do make up about 76% of the population. So if all 18 and older got vaccinated, yes, we'd likely reach herd immunity. I say likely because 75% is just an educated guess.

But we know there are two groups within the 18+ that won't get vaccinated. First, are the ones with legitimate reasons, such as immune compromise issues or serious allergies. Second, are the anti-vaxxers. If jar 10% of the 18+ refuse to get vaccinated, herd immunity without vaccinating kids is impossible.

And we are in a better place today. But we're not out of the woods yet. Things can quickly take a turn for the worse. Especially now we know how quickly COVID-19 can mutate and create variants that may be more communicable like the UK variant, and possibly more dangerous, like perhaps the Brazil variant.

So far, the vaccines have been relatively effective against all variants. But will this last? Nobody knows. What we do know is all the virus needs to mutate into a new variant are host bodies to infect, that allows the virus to make copies of itself.

It is likely that even after the pandemic is over, COVID-19 will be an epidemic, with hot spots popping up all over the globe. This will lead to more variants. It's also likely one or some of these variants will have big enough vaccine resistance to warrant a modified vaccine, and we will all be getting boosters in the future. One reason the flu vaccine is annual is variants. There are new ones every year.

While we can't stop variants, especially on a global scale right now, domestically, we can put a major dent in new variants by getting vaccinated. The vaccine limits the number of available hosts COVID-19 can infect. Less hosts, less copies, less mutations, less variants.

 

You forgot to count people who are naturally immune to Covid and who have already had Covid. Stopped reading once that happened. Lets use the science that we have. Once you have Covid the odds of getting it again are as good as the vaccine.

COVID-19 reinfection rate around 0.4%, Epic data suggests.

And this doesn't even take into account the awful PCR threshold of 40 that is used on people who haven't had the vaccine yet. But to test those who have had the vaccine for covid, they use a threshold PCR of under 28. Might want to ask yourself why they are using 2 different numbers? We've know that anything over a threshold of 30 is not active Covid for a year now.

 

And once again, your scientific ignorance is on full display. The vaccine causes a stronger immune response than natural immunity, and several variants have been known to cause reinfection. But don't take my word for it. From this article:

Although virologists are still studying how variants arose, it appears that the approved vaccines that are currently in distribution do recognize the known novel variants. This is good. But, it is also known that the strength of the immune response engendered by prior infection with an original strain is not as strong against some of the variants, especially the ones known as P.1 and 501Y.V2.


We should exercise caution in extrapolating too far from these findings, however. Such conclusions are based on a limited number of strains and laboratory conditions. The situation in the real world may be different. A somewhat weaker immune response may still be strong enough. Or it may not.

In particular, the resurgence of Covid-19 in Manaus, Brazil seems to show that a variant can escape from the immune response generated by natural infection with prior strains. Manaus is telling because an extremely high attack rate was experienced during the first wave of the epidemic, such that the city was believed to have reached herd immunity by October 2020. Nevertheless, a major resurgence in December resulted in a second wave that exceeded the size of the first wave.
​

The best way to be sure we are reaching what is close to herd immunity? The vaccine. And even this will never be true herd immunity as long as COVID remains an epidemic with outbreaks around the globe. Because epidemic outbreaks will lead to future variants, which could potentially be vaccine resistant.

 

You think posting one article of someone's opinion is a fact? I showed a study. People with Covid don't get covid again hardly at all. I'm dealing in science, you are continuing the What/If moniker. You are if one thing, it's consistent. Consistently wrong, but consistent.

 

One man's opinion. How about this Lancet Study? Or are they not smart enough for you, and you'll laugh at their "opinion" too?

There's also this article from the BMJ. The town of Manaus may have had up to 70% infected the first wave, back in May, 2020. The second wave has been worse, with more people infected, hospitalized, and dead.

And if British sources aren't your cup of tea, there's this from Scientific American.

Recent studies have corroborated the suspicions that P.1 drove Manaus’s second wave. The exact rate of infection prior to the recent upsurge has not been determined. But Hanage emphasizes that inducing immunity by leaving people to contract the virus unguarded is a mistake. “Following the tragedy of Manaus, I would hope we can put an end to discussion of controlling the pandemic through herd immunity acquired from natural infection,” he says.

The Manaus experience holds a cautionary message for the rest of the world, including the U.S., about maintaining basic public health strictures even as vaccination campaigns progress. And it underlines why only a global approach to immunizations will work.
​

Still find what's happening in Manaus funny, or just one person's opinion?

 

Yes, I find it funny you are worried about something that they don't have proof of. More What/If's I see. Consistent. What part of "exact rate of infection prior to the recent upsurge has not been determined" is hard to understand? I mean the US is so scared of this Brazilian variant that CA and NY are opening back up. Man, they should listen to you and shut everything back down until we are at 100% of the country vaccinated. That sounds like a great idea.

 

Don't have proof? WTF do you call peer reviewed articles in publications like The Lancet? One man's comedy tour?

The exact rate of infection prior has not been determined, but you left out the part where all estimates were between 70% and 75%. Impossible to determine the exact rate because Manaus isn't exactly a rich area of Brazil, testing wasn't widespread, and many people with minor cases likely were never tested and confirmed positive. It's why they did the blood testing samples, which came back 70% + of the area had COVID during the first outbreak.

Why are things opening up in the US? Because we are in a better place right now than we were. Reducing restrictions are a good idea. But to pretend we are absolutely, 100% safe, with nothing to worry would be epically stupid. And want to know why we are in a better place today? Vaccines.

Vaccines are simply more effective at stopping infections from all current variants of COVID-19 right now. Will this be true in the future? We simply do not and cannot know what mutations will occur. But what we do know is the best way to stop COVID from mutating into different variants is to give COVID significantly less bodies to infect, copy itself, and spread. And that's done through vaccination.

Is the vaccine a cure? No. Will it stop all future variants? Maybe, and we can hope so, but science says this is unlikely. Are vaccines more effective than natural immunity. All scientific studies say yes, and Manaus is living proof.

You are grasping at any potential straw in these scientific studies to convince yourself you understand the science that you are completely missing the lesson. I have no problem with the US opening up right now, as vaccines have been incredibly effective. But we are in a race of vaccine versus variant, and sorry, those with natural immunity have a good chance of not helping too much in this fight. A large enough chance that vaccination is the only way to be sure. And even then, there's the chance of a variant that will be vaccine resistant. Which is why we should all do our part to reduce this chance of variants, which again, the best way, bar none, is getting the vaccine

 

Nope, I'm just being realistic and looking at data. You are captain worry wart. Honestly I hope this is some facade, because I can't imagine someone being so negative. Quite sad to live life like that. You keep thinking the world is ending. The rest of us will live our lives and have most of our kids not get vaccinated.

 

You are not looking at data. You have your conclusion and looking for points that support it, even if the actual data shows how ignorant you are. There was no way of knowing exactly how many original COVID cases there were in Manaus. So they took a a large sample of the town and gave them blood tests. Results? Between 70% and 75% of the city had COVID the first time around. Now, looking at those results and what is happening now, medical professionals published articles in The Lancet, BMJ, and Scientific American saying natural immunity is not good enough due to COVID variants. But I guess someone like you use these journals as toilet paper, because you are so scientifically advanced as compared to those who would publish in The Lancet, BMJ, and Scientific American.

I'm not a worry wart. I'm a pragmatic realist who understands COVID has been the worst pandemic in over a century. We are making significant progress, but are nowhere near out of the woods yet. Especially considering the damage variants can do, and have already done. In short, we are in a race between vaccine and variant and the more people, of every age, we can get vaccinated, the better our chances to avoid the next variant, which could be the one that is vaccine resistant.

Your hubris in believing we're all safe now and going to be just fine is the same sentiment too many Americans had back in January 2020, when COVID was ravaging Italy. You would think we would have learned by now to actually listen to the scientists and doctors who say the best way to beat COVID is for everyone to get the vaccine. And even if we do in this country, it probably won't be enough to beat the virus world-wide, as COVID will likely become an epidemic, with pockets appearing around the globe. Which will lead to new variants.

Personally, understanding that this is the likely outcome, and knowing the mutation and virus variants are scientific fact, if we can't completely beat COVID and if it will be an epidemic, what's best for me and my family is to at least beat COVID domestically. If new, potential vaccine variants are to arise, I'd rather them appear overseas first, which will hopefully give us time to prepare a vaccine booster.