Coronavirus in the United States - news and thoughts

yeah just ask India if it’s just “the news”.

 

Thanks doctor dangole.
That may be true. There is also no reason to assume that only conspiracy theories lead to caution.

 

Any credible doctor would tell you the same thing. Get vaccinated, both for yourself and others.

 

Kevin Drum, one of my favorite commenters, says:


But now, just as we're on the brink of truly crushing the coronavirus, we can't quite take the final step. Masking and other countermeasures are being abandoned too quickly and we're now having trouble getting the other half of the country to get the vaccine. All we need is a few more weeks. That's it. And we can't quite do it.

We'll get there eventually. Everyone forgets this now, but vaccine hesitancy ran around 30% for the polio vaccine too, so response to the coronavirus vaccine is not unprecedented. I'm just not sure if that makes me feel any better.

But that doesn't feel quite right to me because we should be a more advanced and scientific trusting society by now, so I still blame in part political leadership, although I acknowledge that there would be a segment that would be hesitant regardless. But it was an interesting point


Weekend Vaccination Rates in the United States – Kevin Drum

 

There is an interesting dichotomy. The vaccines are far more effective than anyone would have hoped for 12 months ago. It’s practically a miracle for ending the pandemic, so long as they hold up to future mutant variants and get broad enough adoption.

On the other hand you actually can’t say that about the therapeutics, everything I’ve heard is they have been disappointing with only limited changes in outcome. If you get ventilated, it’s still 50/50 survival at best. Maybe that will change in the future as new treatments are developed and trialed, but for those who get hit with severe covid there is little the doctors can do but slightly boost the odds in your favor, there is no “cure”.

This makes the vaccines all the more important, and any hesitancy all the more mind boggling. Particularly if the hesitancy is enough to keep the virus circulating nationally, higher possibility of a resurgence in 12 months, etc. Just like all other aspects of the pandemic, stupidity made it more severe than it ought to have been.

 

what's complicated about it?

get the vaccine, have 90% chance of not becoming infected

don't get the vaccine, contribute to the spread if you resume normal activities without proper PPE and possibly be hospitalized and die. possibly be the patient that develops the mutation that will require additional vaccines

unless you have an underlying health problem that would cause complications, not getting vaccinated at this point is just selfish and puts others at risk.

 

Why do you think we are now learning that the U.S. will not likely achieve herd immunity?

 

Lol. I am not against the vax....but what are my % chances of getting infected without it?

It's ok to be cautious a bit longer.
I am ok with masking and distancing until full approval is granted.

I am happy my parents got it and everyone who wants it can get it.

 

Well...first I assume we will. I think some would be much more willing with full approval.

2nd, My guess is some of that talk is an effort to encourage more folks to do it, which is understandable.

 

Thanks for your response Tilly. Why do you assume we will reach herd immunity? I want to believe that, but the current news (one of the previous posters linked this article: Reaching COVID ‘herd immunity’ is unlikely in the U.S., experts now believe) cites sources suggesting we will not. I don't doubt more folks will come around, but I don't think there are many folks (you appear to be an exception) waiting for the FDA to give them confidence.

I disagree that encouragement to get vaccinated is part of the "we won't reach herd immunity talk." I may be wrong, but feel that talk is based on the current numbers and projection that the variants will outrace our willingness to do what's necessary to beat this thing. I suggested months ago that we were in a race between the variants and the vax. It sure would be great for the vax to win the race, but the current reports suggest otherwise.

 

A lot more than your chances would be having received it.

You're right that it's ok in a sense that it's your right to choose. The more people who choose not the get vaxxed, though, the greater chance we have of living with this thing for the rest of our lives.

 

Probably higher than you think, id assume the virus will eventually find a substantial number of unvaccinated people, esp in areas that fall short and top out at 50% vaccinated.

There’s a bit of a catch-22 aspect to this freeloader thinking. The more people try and skip out on the vaccine, the more people will be available for the virus to infect, making it more likely for all such individuals to get infected vs. scenarios with higher vaccine rates

 

If we reach herd immunity, the chance of anyone getting sick drops to 1% or below. Without herd immunity, it depends on how many unvaccinated plus breakthrough cases (those vaccinated but still get sick) happen in an area. But I can assure you, chances are much greater than 1%.

 

I may anyway...but certainly at that point.

 

At the moment roughly 90% haven't gotten it. That was my point in responding to the 90% claim.

I understand that isnt really how the math works...just pointing out that it is already statistically unlikely that any given person will contract Covid in the current (masking/distancing) climate.

 

it’s likely closer to about 80 percent if you include the asymptomatic ones.

COVID-19 Antibodies Found in One in Five U.S. Blood Donations

 

Given the # of asymptomatic people, it seems that millions of Americans have likely contracted Covid w/o being diagnosed. This model suggested that as of Feb 4, 21.5% of the population had been infected.
New machine-learning algorithm estimates number of COVID-19 cases in the U.S.

 

If you listen to the talking head, even if you're vaxxed, you'll be doing all that anyway.