How China's Military Views the United States

To quote an important figure:

"The only winning move is not to play. How about a nice game of chess?”

 

Zugzwang and my crush on Ally Sheedy

 

I have been following that story. The Filipinos are not going to take them on. That opportunity ended after Scarborough. They were pissed the US didn't come to their aid, but it's hard to risk starting a war over that. We keep doing the freedom of navigation exercises instead.

No easy answer.

 

this should be interesting

Philippine foreign minister tells China to 'Get the F**k Out' over South China Sea dispute (msn.com)

The Philippine foreign minister on Monday demanded in an expletive-laced Twitter message that China's vessels get out of disputed waters, the latest exchange in a war of words with Beijing over the South China Sea.

The comments by Teodoro Locsin, known for blunt remarks, follow Manila's protests for what it calls the "illegal" presence of hundreds of Chinese boats inside the Philippines' 200-mile Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ).

"China, my friend, how politely can I put it? Let me see... O...GET THE F**K OUT," Locsin tweeted on his personal account. "What are you doing to our friendship? You. Not us. We're trying. You. You're like an ugly oaf forcing your attentions on a handsome guy who wants to be a friend; not to father a Chinese province ..." Locsin said.

Responding to a request for comment, a spokeswoman for the US State Department reiterated a March 28 statement by Secretary of State Antony Blinken saying the US "stands with our ally, the Philippines, in the face of (China's) maritime militia pressure in the South China Sea."

"As we have stated before, an armed attack against the Philippine armed forces, public vessels or aircraft in the Pacific, including in the South China Sea, will trigger our obligations under the US-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty," the spokeswoman added.

 

I will also note that the TPP was largely intended to be a security pact rather than a trade pact and included increased US basing rights in the Philippines and especially Vietnam. There was no political support domestically from any party. It's hard to say whether Hillary would've tried to figure out a way to make some portion of it happened had she won, but it certainly was negated when she didn't.

But the subsequent statement that we would not necessarily backup the security of Japan and South Korea was perhaps the strongest statement in favor of Chinese regional domination there has been. It was a return to Great Powers spheres of influence.

Though we are trying to get back into the game now by reemphasizing The Quad, I even heard Niall Ferguson say this morning that Taiwan will be to the US what the Suez was to Britain, the final end of the expeditionary Empire and that we need to realize that and pull back now. The book 2034 tried to posit the same thing, that the US should not guarantee Pacific regional security from Chinese domination. I do recommend the book, though it had some problems overall in terms of military realism, even though it was authored by an admiral.

I'm still not persuaded but I must admit it seems to be a common theme. It's the Economist cover story this week. I don't have a direct subscription but I want to the library. I may read it to see what they say since they bring a British perspective,

 

And now we hear the Chinese were funding the proud bois. Globalization

 

Hopefully it will land harmlessly in the ocean. That would ruin someone's day in a populated area....

 

Listened to the podcast - have not yet read the article

“The fragile equilibrium that has kept the peace is really breaking down”—China and Taiwan

 

Long before 2034, there were concerns about Chinese malware infecting military performance. And Clinton deserves criticism, but he didn't do anything that was not consensus across the political spectrum. The thought process was that opening up China economically would lead to political liberalization. And it still may.

But it's also the case that you just can't keep down a country with their resources indefinitely. That can be more the recipe for destabilization than anything else. The two great wars of the last century were due to the desire to keep Germany as a second-class power in Europe even after the Prussian increase and Germany's growing economic power. Britain and France decided they were not going to help Germany move forward into the scale of European powers And keep them down.

You see how that worked out