Too Hot Investment Thread

CCH

I agree that the above mentioned sectors may be in a bubble, but they are the ones with the brightest long term growth prospects. Eventually they will grow again so if it is money you can afford to lose, I would hold on them and then buy more if the bubble pops. Dollar cost averaging is a proven strategy for successful investing. It is when you go for options, leverage and short selling that the risk of a bubble can take you down. I know, old school, but this strategy keeps you out of deep trouble.

 

I agree with all of this post except the last paragraph. Equating the advice of some random person (including me on this thread) with Warren Buffett is a kin to saying you could compare any randomly drawn book from the library to A book written by a Nobel prize winner (or to use a sports analogy pulling some random guy off the street versus pulling an NBA player). Warren Buffett is clearly not the only guru intelligent investor, but his thoughts deserve way more consideration than some guy who made $500k on GameStop. Everyone is certainly entitled to have an opinion, but that does not mean all opinions are equally educated or should be equally weighted. having lived through multiple boom and bust cycles, I have no doubt that principles of valuation will ultimately average to the mean and that this time is not different.

 

Yeah, a lot of the info here is interesting, but I am surprised at how many speculative decisions there are. I don’t consider myself a conservative investor at all, but by the standards of this thread I very much am. Almost no talk of bonds or real estate, limited talk of long term holding, basics like indexes and funds, market fundamentals etc.
Not a criticism on anyone, just surprising.

 

I just assumed everyone here was already doing most of the "boring" stuff.

 

This. The overwhelming majority of my portfolio is bogle heading away in low cost index funds. This is the way.

This is the way.

Those pointing out that this is the way are indeed correct.

If this was a thread about DCAing VOO vs SPY, it would have died on post 12.

Doesn't mean that strategy is wrong. It clearly isn't. Just boring af.

 

Meantime...surprised the market isn’t freaking out more over this.

 

And the market was down over the last week over this. Powell told investors today basically “don’t worry, be happy”, and magically we are back up again.

 

A little over 1/2 of Americans traditionally hold any stocks (55% in 2002). The percentage of people who own stocks typically goes up right before a crash.

When stocks get popular, it is time to exit. Famous story: "JOE KENNEDY, a famous rich guy in his day, exited the stock market in timely fashion after a shoeshine boy gave him some stock tips. He figured that when the shoeshine boys have tips, the market is too popular for its own good, a theory also advanced by Bernard Baruch, another vested interest who described the scene before the big Crash:

"Taxi drivers told you what to buy. The shoeshine boy could give you a summary of the day's financial news as he worked with rag and polish. An old beggar who regularly patrolled the street in front of my office now gave me tips and, I suppose, spent the money I and others gave him in the market. My cook had a brokerage account and followed the ticker closely. Her paper profits were quickly blown away in the gale of 1929."

Most Americans Don’t Have A Real Stake In The Stock Market

WHEN THE SHOESHINE BOYS TALK STOCKS IT WAS A GREAT SELL SIGNAL IN 1929. SO WHAT ARE THE SHOESHINE BOYS TALKING ABOUT NOW? - April 15, 1996

 

Point of clarification based on your article. As of April 2020 55% of Americans owned stocks. That number was 67% in 2002 and 65% in 2007.

 

Keep in mind that not everyone has the same retirement horizon as you. But as others have said, the vast majority of my money is sitting in index funds. How could I not working in a Warren Buffet company? For the other stuff I like the gamesmanship of investing in more speculative areas. Penny stocks, crypto, etc. Bonds and real estate bore me to death.

At any rate, look for Bitcoin to drop to the $38k mark before shooting up to $70-80k to end the crypto bull run. This is NOT financial advice.

 

I live in a Dinky Town out in the boonies. Internet is spotty. Fast Internet is only a theory. Today I signed up to get Starlink - Elon Musk's company that runs internet off gobs of low flying satellites. Despite the monthly cost ($99) and equipment cost ($499) I couldn't put my money down fast enough. Rumors of an IPO are out there. Going to keep a watch out for the inevitable dip after the IPO.

Starlink IPO Confirmed by Musk: When Can You Expect Stock?

Starlink satellites are in low Earth orbit (LEO). They’re positioned at 550 km, half the average satellite’s distance. Additionally, a satellite will automatically deorbit at the end of its useful life. It will also do this in the event the system malfunction. After deorbiting, satellites will burn up in Earth’s atmosphere. While satellites at a higher altitude take hundreds of years to burn, Starlink’s low-orbit satellites will burn up in about one to five years.

But after a tweet from Musk about a Starlink IPO, investors want to know just how far along the company is.

Starlink’s latest mission launched January 20 at 8 a.m. EST. Each mission launches 60 new satellites, and this marked Starlink’s 17th mission. The company now has over 1,000 satellites in orbit, a big jump from the approximate 250 satellites last year. Starlink claimed it needed 800 satellites to begin providing internet services.

 

I hear you. I'm past the age of speculating (much anyway). I'm at the point that I'm trying to preserve what I have. I'm trying to realize a decent income from dividends (AT&T, TOT, AFLAC) and looking to diversify to real estate via an REIT such as WPC (6.3% dividend) or O (4.9% and an Ed Jones BUY). If you are looking at something similar or have pertinent information, I would appreciate hearing it.

 

I have been intrigued by non-traded REITs like Realitymogul but am concerned about tax ramifications so haven’t invested in them yet

 

Yep, taxes are a thing with REITs

 

Dunno. No date was provided. The company says it will be available worldwide this year. Had to input my address to see if I was in coverage area. I nearly broke my fingers inputting my card numbers before they changed their mind.
That article said the low level satellites will be falling out of orbit and burning up ever 2 years which is less than half of the years the high altitude satellites get. But since Elon has his own spaceships not as big a deal

 

Up heah, fokes ah reportin 'round a hundrid-150mb/s @ 20-30ms latency.

Some complaints of intermittent drops...

 

My guess is there's a fair amount of planned obsolescence here to keep the most recently updated/designed hardware in orbit.

 

Starlink satellites should last between 3 and 4 years. Two years is entirely too short of a lifecycle even ignoring the costs. The number of launches required to keep 12,000 satellites in orbit for two years is simply too great at more than eight launches a month. Starship will reduce this once it’s operational since it will be able to launch around 400 but that’s a ways off and they’re hoping to put up more than 30,000 satellites.

Ok, I derailed the thread. Back to your regularly scheduled program.