Too Hot Investment Thread

1) 7-11 Lottery Tickets

2) Lots in that development Mr. GK talks about, the one where the water pollution eats the mortar from the brick.(In Florida) I'm so divested I can't remember anything anymore.

3) BOEING

4) Thanos Needles

5) Vegas - Dropped a cool million that trump would be Pres again in 24.

6) Newspapers - I have been investing HEAVILY in news papers

7) Bosley's Hair Re-maker

8) Qanon Building Complex near Trumps palace

9) Oh my - Trump Casino's of course (recent exciting news out of AC on that)

10) Heads internal and external topical healer:
cures: Cancer
Diabetes
Heart Disease

Any takers wanna talk?

 

Yeah, today was a blood bath for me (for the ~12% of my portfolio I actively manage).

I thought Powell's "commitment to current policy" would help me more. But at least I've gotten out of a lot of sketchy stuff (ZSAN / TNXP) the last couple of weeks and am pretty comfortable letting what I have ride for a bit (NIO, XPEV, ABML, CCIV...).

I agree a deeper correction is coming before EOY.

 

Gee make a real nice sarcastic post and not one emoticon.
Guess I lost it - I thought the Thanos was a good one........

 

Oh crap! That was sarcasm? [Scurries to sell Boeing and Bosleys]

 

yep, this sucked but hope its just a small blip in a longer term holding.

 

It will be. Solid company with excellent leadership, great tech, and now well financed.

Leader has agreed not to sell equity for 18 months. Speaks volumes.

 

Seems like this thread is more of a speculation thread vs investment thread. Individual stocks and Bitcoin. I don't do either.

For those that buy individual stocks, do you do so because you feel like you have information that will outperform the market, or do you do it just for fun, like casino gambling?

 

I definitely aiming for long term. I'm just so very new to this investment thing.

 

I think it’s 10 or 11 times we have set ten new record highs by February, in all but one of those years the market was still up at year end by an average of 16 percent.

this is a weird year so it could be the anomaly, but odds are we make through the year without catastrophe. The other weird thing is that like 9 of those years had corrections in them. So volatility is likely.

 

I posted the below in post #170. As I said below, I don't want to offend anyone, but most of this thread is noise. The way to go about is some version of the below. The problem is the financial industry makes money on transactions, so that is not shockingly what most people do, trade, trade trade. But you are better off buying the market at very little cost and sticking with it. This isn't just me saying it, there is lots of evidence to back it up.

If you really want to learn about investing go here:

Bogleheads

 

Broad market indexes beat the funds 9 times out of 10.

Same strategy for me ... move everything between a blue chip index and a Small/Mid Cap index depending on short term growth prospects.

It never loses, and it's easy to read. Trade deficits are a good leading indicator because blue chips lean on overseas assets, and Small/Mid caps rely on domestic growth, and pick up first when growth first picks up.
20% a year is not hard to come by.

Also routinely switching in and out of the small caps reduces your chances of getting stuck with lemons in your basket.

 

It's a fun thread with something for everyone. I'm still clueless on Bitcoin and other cryptos, but learning. Due in part to this thread. Mostly learning cryptos aren't for me.

Trucker deals in options from a fund set up for it, but our two main holdings are not traded. We've held J&J for more than 50 years watching it grow through more splits than I can recall, and Apple since before its last 3 splits. Will never sell these stocks, our children will inherit them.

 

You don't have to pick just one way of investing.

You can buy the market funds, buy individual stocks, gold, silver, Bitcoin, real estate, etc.

If you are just looking for facts about where you can put your money and have the best return then history and the facts say that there is nothing close to performing better than Bitcoin in the last 10 years. Most people still aren't comfortable with this investment and see it as speculation and that's ok but if we are going by historical returns Bitcoin wins.

Normally, the most opportunity comes in the investments that people don’t understand or don't take the time to research and learn.

My experiences have led me to keep an open mind about investments regardless of how crazy or wrong they may appear on the surface, do my research, understand what I'm buying and then trust myself regardless of who is saying what.

This thread is no different than watching Warren Buffett on YouTube or Wall Street Bets on Reddit....every post is just one individual's opinion about investing. That is how I take Warren Buffett's advice as well as any poster on this thread.

 

I'd just like in Vegas, the more you play (buy and sell/day trade), the worse off you're likely to do. Picking an individual stock that you believe in as a company and holding it long term gives you a better chance of success. For example, Forrest Gump would be a multi-billionaire right now from his investment in "some fruit company."

 

To be clear I have no problem if people want to play with a portion of their portfolio for fun. It may work out, it may not. As long as people going in understand it is fun money, it it isn't the most efficient form of investing on a risk reward basis.

The reason I posted mostly the same thing, again, is that for those that are new to investing, all of the trading stocks and Bitcoin on the internet tips posts overwhelms the volume Boglehead-ish type posts, and people come to think that is what investing is. But it really isn't investing. It is speculation. If you want to build long term wealth, trading stocks and cryptocurrencies based on internet tips is not the way to do it.

 

Lucid may be a great company, but how would any of us know? They currently have sold exactly 0 cars. They have $0 revenue. They have not exhibited the ability to manufacture vehicles at scale, sell them or service them, much less do all of the above producing any profit. We cannot compare their scale cars to existing EVs, and we know that the number/competition in EVs is ramping rapidly.

Speaking of profit, the average car company traditionally produces 13-20% profit. At a historically rational p/e of 12 for car companies, this would imply Lucid needs sales of +$50B and revenue of $10B (based on Lucid market cap of $60B). All of this going from the current $0 in sales. This is a capital and labor intensive business. The best EV company in the world (Tesla) has barely squeaked out any profits. Further, the Lucid Air is priced well above other EV sedans.

For all this, one can own this company with no current revenue, much less owner earnings, for a mere $60B dollars. GM by contrast has a similar market cap and made $9.7B in pre-tax earnings in 2020 and actually sells EVs. Now, I am not a huge fan of GM but this is just one stock relative to Lucid in the universe of potential investments.

Scale matters in auto manufacturing and there will not be a lot of EV manufacturers. Some old ones will die or get bought and many new companies will do the same. I hope anyone who buys Lucid does well, and I deeply hope EVs completely eliminate IC engines as quickly as possible. In any event, I may completely miss the boat on Lucid, but it won't bother me a bit given my analysis, briefly touched on above.