If the Chinese government were more civilized and less concerned about holding on to power, as all communist governments are obsessed with, they would not think about invading Taiwan. Unfortunately, we (the U.S. and Europe) have spoiled them. They gotten used to the rest of the world handing them things--billions of dollars in investments and technology, and have not been held accountable for their misdeeds. When South Africa's government pursued a policy of apartheid, the rest of the world refused to do business with them. When China abuses Uighurs in the northwest and reneges on agreements with Hong Kong to let them govern themselves, the rest of the world does nothing.
China apparently conducted a simulated attack run on aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt in the South China Sea. They stayed 250 miles away from the carrier, but issued commands and simulated the firing of anti-ship missiles. Chinese bombers simulated an attack on a US Navy aircraft carrier in the South China Sea
Experts now believe that China has been cooking the books and their economy actually shrank in 2020. There is no way that the economy grew when there were double-digit declines in fixed investment, retail sales, and net exports. China apparently forgot to cook all the books. With the People’s Republic of China, Don’t Trust, Because You Can’t Verify This can be filed under the business plan, "We're losing money on every single unit we sell, but we're going to make it up on volume."
Hard to trust the article when there's a glaring error regarding the topic at hand. China reported a 6.8% 1st quarter decline, not 3.3%. I mean, we can quibble about the exact percentages, but there's no doubt that the only major growth market in 2020 for just about all multinationals was in China.
I mean, yeah, you can quibble if you like, but reporting a 6.8% Q1 decline rather than the 3.3% cited would make the annual report of 2.3% even more outlandish....
I don't think the obsessive desire of the CCP to conquer and take dominion over Taiwan is necessarily a function of communist ideology. I think it's more Han nationalism and the desire to return to former greatness and dominance of Asia.
Why? It's a purely pandemic/lockdown related downturn, so it makes sense that the economy would bounce back if the pandemic is under control, no? A ~4% drop from the pre-pandemic growth rate (China was expected to growth at 6-6.5%) is pretty much in line with other east Asian countries like SK (1-2% to -2.8%), Japan (-1% to -5%) and Vietnam (7% to 3%).
It is possible that there are different definitions for quarterly decline (domestic vs. total, etc.). Why is there no doubt that there was a major growth market for almost all multi-nationals in China? I have some doubt, as I had not heard this before. Is it possible that the growth for multi-nationals came at the expense of local Chinese companies? That often happens when the Chinese are scared of what their own companies are doing with regard to quality, like the major infant formula company adding melamine to the formula to increase the test results for protein. Also, I doubt that all industries in China are represented by multi-national corporations. I don't see European or American corporations being heavily involved in Chinese rock quarrying, cement manufacture, coal mining, steel production, and other basic industries.
China's flights to the edge of Taiwanese airspace are part of a program of harassment and intimidation designed to wear out the Taiwanese defenses. Also included are massive Chinese dredging vessels that are sneaking into Taiwanese waters off the coast. It's part of a psychological warfare program. China's latest weapon against Taiwan: the sand dredger One more reason not to trust China's government.
England cancels the TV license of the Chinese state TV channel after determining that they are controlled by the Chinese government. Only took them 18 years to figure that out. Beijing is not happy. China threatens retaliation after UK regulator cancels state TV licence No more BBC in the Chinese hotel rooms.
I think you should talk to some of the finance folks who read these companies' quarterly reports regularly. They should give you a pretty good idea of the overall flow of money. I believe China and India were the only major economies with FDI growth the past year, and India is a bit of an outlier due to a single hot company, Reliance Jio, attracting the majority of investments. China's COVID stimulus was much more targeted than ours, mainly in infrastructure investment, so I doubt the cement, steel, etc. sectors are suffering. The manufacturing PMI by both the Chinese official polls and the Caixin polls have been way up since the spring. The services PMI is also up in historic levels. That obviously doesn't require much steel or cement, but it does demonstrate overall economic recovery. There's actually a power shortage issue this winter there, so I highly doubt the coal industry is suffering considering close to 70% of China's power generation is through coal burning.
China's latest is to break their agreement with the Vatican. The Vatican agreed to recognize the Catholics in China if the Vatican was in charge of picking the bishops. The cardinal in Hong Kong warned that this agreement would lead to weakening of the underground Catholic movement in China, and it did. China has apparently decided that the underground Catholics were weak enough that they could break the agreement and start taking control of the Catholic Church in China, starting with the selection of bishops there. China Betrays Its Deal with the Vatican I wonder what the Vatican's next move will be. I'm not sure they have a next move. It looks like they put a little too much trust in China, like most countries have. Maybe Biden will have a breakthrough agreement with China.
Any thoughts on Biden appointing Rahm Emmanuel as US Ambassador to China? Don't know anything about the other guy, Nicholas Burns.
Rahm would have to decide which crisis not to waste. The U.S. and China have so many crises right now, it would be way too challenging to not waste them all.
Just finished all four pre-release excerpts in Wired of that new book coming out March 11 which imagines a 2034 conflict between the US and China. From the limited or experts available so far, it seems to track closely with PW Singers Ghost Fleet,which also imagined a future war with China in the Pacific. Both had a lot of input from retired people leadership, which suggest that the scenario they described as a future threat is being discussed quite a bit. In both, the US is completely overwhelmed and unable to contest due to unanticipated China offensive cyber attacks due to supply chain malware intrusions in prior years, like the Huawei issue. Can't stop thinking about it
China to "weaponize" rare earth metals against the U.S. military. China Rattles Its Rare-Earth-Minerals Saber, Again
I just don't think you can trust a government that relies on propaganda as much as China does, and I don't think it is so easy to evaluate an economy where virtually all of the capital projects are funded directly by the government, which has the ability to print money and back loans made by provinces. They have an extreme version of a Keynesian economy--all stimulus, all the time. The top job that college graduates want to get is to be a financial planner for the government, because they are well-paid to hand out the government's money for companies to work on projects. The entire economy is extremely inefficient, filled with massive over-capacity in many, many sectors (for some chemicals, their capacity is equal to three times the demand or more, meaning that at any given time, two thirds of the capacity is idle). For almost a decade, China has had a shortage of people willing and able to do dirty factory work. They kept the one-child policy too long, and don't have as many young people as they need, and more younger people are getting college-educated and doing less hazardous jobs. Who wants to live in a run-down dormitory and work next to a boiler, reactor, or furnace? One interpreter explained the shoddy welding work in a chemical plant to me by saying that many of the welders were farmers two weeks before, and received very little training on being a welder.
