Coronavirus in the United States - news and thoughts

Thanks. I think we have seen the worst of it, because there's nothing like the holiday season for bringing people physically together (normally a good thing but so much in the middle of a pandemic). And my sense is the combination of immunity from vaccination and from those who have already had covid will continue to bring the cases down. I did just read about a variant in South Africa that could cause problems though, showing possible reinfection of people who already had covid.

 

Where did you get 300k excess deaths from?

Did you even read your own link? The article you linked says 400k excess deaths:

and:

 

If this study is validated by further studies, to a non-medical person such as my self, the finding makes this virus even more concerning. It basically is another virus that can result in brain inflammation + while also creating a whole bunch of problems such as respiratory, heart and kidney problems, etc.....

Study finds COVID-19 attack on brain, not lungs, triggers severe disease in mice: The findings have implications for understanding the wide range in symptoms and severity of illness among humans who are infected by SARS-CoV-2

 

Yes I did. Maybe you missed this part:

"The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported 2,835,533 U.S. deaths in 2019. Before the pandemic, models projected a slightly higher number, about 2.9 million deaths, for 2020, said Dr. Jeremy Faust, an emergency physician at Brigham and Women’s Hospital."

So, they projected over 2.9 million deaths for 2020. And preliminary numbers put the US in the 3.2 million deaths area. That math to me is 300k give or take.

 

I didn't miss that part, but I took Dr. Faust's word for it that the number of excess deaths was what he said it was rather than what an optimistic interpretation of the approximations he also gave could be manipulated to provide. The same person who provided the numbers you used to get 300k, also said it was 400k. Either he is bad at his job, or he is using more exact numbers than the approximations that you rounded in the direction you needed them to go.

 

Well, we are 400k more than 2019, so there is truth to that. BUT, we were projected anyway to increase, so I stand by my 300k excess death statement. It's right there in the article.

 

Yeah, the hilarious part of this is that if you look at the actual data linked by the article, it has deaths at 3,297,716. I guess, in theory, that could be rounded to 3,200,000. But most people would point out that it is a whole lot closer to 3,300,000.

It looks like that includes two extra weeks actually. The deaths from January 4-end of 2020 are 3,237,152. Multiply that by 3/366 (it was a leap year) to cover the first 3 days, and it would be 3,263,686. Even if we cut deaths down, it is still over 3.25 million.

 

I'm quoting the article. Here it is for you.

"Final figures aren't yet in, but preliminary numbers show 2020 is on track to become the deadliest year in U.S. history, with more than 3.2 million totaldeaths – about 400,000 more than 2019 – a sharp increase that public health experts attribute to COVID-19 and aligns with reported deaths from the disease."

Take it up with USAToday, not me.

 

Things that are true: more than 3.2 million deaths.
Things that aren't true: "3.2 million death area."

 

Here is the total. So thanks for admitting i'm right.

 

Again, I guess 3.26 million could be rounded down to 3.2 million, but that wouldn't exactly be the standard way to do it.

 

But if it got you the answer you wanted, wouldn't that make it okay?

 

Some seem to care alright....about being right.

 

The interesting thing to me is how closely the excess death numbers are tracking with the official covid deaths numbers.

 

Florida has vaccinated 17% of it's enormous 4.5 million elderly population so far. Over 65% of all vaccinations in Florida are to the elderly, by far the best in the country.

 

Yeah, and it ain't you.

 

No is doesn’t. Read what it says again. And then answer the questions I asked

 

don’t need to. The WHO spells it out. Read it again.

 

more good news, maybe even a trend. hospitalizations down 2800 from yesterday. from jan. 1 to jan.10 averaged 1,775,000 daily tests with236,487 daily new case average. from jan.11 to jan.21 averaged 1,931,000 daily tests with 196,913 new cases.last 11 days has seen a average of 155,000 more tests results with 40,000 less new cases, take it for what you wish.

 

Yeah it seems to be trending the right way. I think the vaccine will really start putting a dent into this thing about the time it starts to warm up in a lot of places. I’m optimistic about things getting somewhat back to normal by the end of the summer.