Coronavirus in the United States - news and thoughts

You have no data to back up what you said. I've produced data. Kids need to be in school. We don't know if a teacher died from or with covid(big distinction) was the result of teaching in person or got it somewhere else. All the data to date shows schools are safer. Unions are pieces of crap over this issue. Luckily I live in florida and my kids have attending in person learning this whole school year. My family in Pennsylvania has not been as lucky. Online learning almost for 1 year straight. Crazy. Making the argument that you have to sacrifice one or the other is a failed argument. Until there is data to back that up, it's not worth discussing anymore.

 

Study on the relationship between school openings and spread.

Again, much like issues at nursing homes, community spread is a key moderating variable. Control community spread, and schools become a good option. Ignore it, and they add fuel to the spread rates.

https://caldercenter.org/sites/default/files/WP 247-1220_updated_typo.pdf

 

Your dying from COVID or dying with COVID crap is getting old. I've already posted the CDC guidelines on when and how COVID should appear on a death certificate. Do you need me to post them again. And I would think the hundreds of dead teachers would be proof enough, especially when you consider LEOs, a more dangerous profession for sure, usually only has about 50 active deaths per year in the country. Your proof shows being in school is safer than other professions, but still doesn't prove it's safer than being at home and distance learning.

 

Show your data. I did. Should be easy to provide. And when did those teachers die? Did some die over the summer or spring when there wasn't in person learning? Then those have no bearing on a teacher who died while teaching in person.

 

That's a very interesting paper. Thank you.

Am I reading this right? It appears that in-person education is not impactful to spread when there's low community disease. But it does contribute to spread when there is already high community disease. The category threshold between high/low community spread seems to be 5 cases per 100,000. If so, could COVID's k-value and limited dataset explain this?

Also, counter intuitively, a in-person/remote hybrid seemed to reduce community spread in one instance.

 

And dying of covid and with covid is an important distinction. California doesn't count flu deaths for people over 65. What if California stopped counting Covid deaths over 65? Count the data correctly. Someone dying with 30-90 days of having covid and getting slapped with covid on the death certificate is not right. Now, when Covid hit in March it might've been the quick fix for NY/NJ and other hard hit areas. But now that's a ridiculous practice. Also, the PCR level of 40 is a joke. We don't have as many cases as are being reported. Fauci himself says any test over 35 is extremely unlikely to be a positive Covid case. These are facts. I know you don't like them, but that's the truth.

 

95, you have to know by now that to some folks there is only one narrative. No additional thought, data or commentary is allowed. Know your place sir.

 

Yes, that is what they are showing. Essentially, that if you have a low level of community spread, schools don't seem to cause more spread, but if you have a moderate or high level of community spread, opening a school results in even more spread. The results are likely because of the fact that they were using linear models without exponential growth to explain exponential growth patterns. When spread is low, it might increase spread, but it does so at such a low level that it is hard/impossible to detect it and it might even be overwhelmed by other unobserved variables. However, as spread is further up the exponential curve, where a greater number of people are spreading it to multiple people, then the impact of schools can be observed.

 

let's not pretend that 95 isn't one of those people dude.

 

Our school system said at the beginning of this mess that they would base F2F/online decision on factors such as community spread. It seemed like a reasonable idea then, even better now. Of course, they disregarded there own guidelines and now we have people dropping like flies in ATL.
My son's highschool was a ghost town for teachers today.

 

Yeah, you're probably right.... the use of OLS caught my attention (hence the k comment) but OLS is relatively simple and understandable.

I thought the paper was well done and honestly framed. I also chuckled at the filename.

 

Nope. Read the study again. That is a lie. Don't lie to people. You have a nasty habit of doing that.

Where Is It Safe To Reopen Schools? New Research Offers Answers

"The other story the researchers found was that it's harder to know how reopening schools may have impacted communities where hospitalization rates were higher, because the virus was more pervasive. In some cases, school reopenings did appear to make matters worse. In other cases, the opposite was true. In the end, for these harder-hit communities, the researchers say their results were inconclusive."

 

I know, just had to call out a poster for lying. Sucks.

 

I don't think he is. For starters he does not blindly defend the failure of Donald Trump. You have to have an open mind to be a conservative with that stance.
He is just sick of the one sided reporting on covid that has crept in. Any news/data that lowers numbers is mocked.

 

I wouldn’t say mocked, just easily and consistently proven false...

 

Yeah, he just accused me of lying when he linked a different study (with different measures, data, and analysis techniques) than the one I was discussing (and didn't mention that, which is intellectually dishonest) as if I had misreported the results of the study that I had linked. That is why many people won't engage with him. Because he isn't just out of his depth from a background/knowledge perspective, but belligerent about it as well. Ultimately, the more wrong the data shows him to be, the more he insults and lashes out.

 

95's main interest in this thread has been mocking and trolling other posters and trying to get folks to bet him on how many people are going to die.

 

Nope. Just pointing out the idiocy of some posters views. Like you with in person schooling. I treat those how they treat me. If you are an ass to me, don't expect me to be nice back to you.

 

thought that was me?

 

Yes, you've issued some death bets as well.