Coronavirus in the United States - news and thoughts

Yes. The fact that retail sales are back up to near February levels in open sectors and still down in closed sectors would be indicative. I work in the industry....albeit on the non-profit side now, but our stores are seeing it and I keep an eye on industry figures.

Open retail is back to pre pandemic levels. The only sectors not showing it are sectors that remain shut down or mostly shut down.

With capacity still reduced in most stores by restrictions, it seems easy to assume that sales would be up even higher if restrictions were lifted.

I am not against restrictions. I have 30-40 people at any given time that are under my care that I want kept safe.
I am just saying that those restrictions are holding down numbers. Consumer confidence and spending are back up.

I guess what I am saying is, open sectors are back up to pre-covid levels, which seems to tell us that other areas would do the same if allowed to open. (speaking purely on dollars and cents, not on what is the right thing for the national health of the country.)

 

Thanks Tilly. This is interesting stuff. I'm no economist, so it's way outside of my wheelhouse. Some questions remain, though. If retail is back up, despite capacity restrictions, how does that support the notion that economic downturns were due to restrictions? Also - It stands to reason that industries that are shut down did not experience growth, no?

From the article you posted:

Businesses have been opening more during the past few months, not closing more. If that's true, I wonder why sales growth has slowed? The point about people leaving the workplace is noteworthy as well. They are not likely leaving jobs due to restrictions.

Obviously Covid has impacted the economy. I imagine that restrictions and cautious behavior makeup the combination of economic impact.

 

4 of the top 5 states with the highest positivity rate right now have no mask mandate.

Cloth masks work better than no masks. There's some great info online about it. Read them.

 

Here are some random mask trials saying mostly otherwise.

 

Your last line is interesting and may be part of all this. It could be a combo.

My belief is that if businesses in my state that are limited to 30% or 50% or whatever capacity are seeing per-covid numbers that it goes without saying that no restrictions would put them above pre-covid numbers.

Also of note is that the sector as a whole is doing well, even though parts of the sector remain shut down or partially shut down. That leads me to the conclusion that the economy is still being held back by restrictions.

I do see caution being a bigger part of things like theaters, sporting events etc where mass gatherings might occur.

I just don't know if the data shows that caution is keeping people out of Target (for instance) in a very tangible way.

 

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numbers for october so far from covid19 tracking.granted they are behind other sites like worldometer, but i still think accurate for what they have.daily number of tests 1,036,2000. daily number of new cases 51,205. daily number of deaths 680. the positive % for the month is 4.95, good considering the increaser in new positives, and the overall positive tests are 6.5%, so even with a upturn in new cases almost 1.5% lower than the total average since numbers were started.

 

CDC just came out with a new excess death estimate. 300K. 2/3 of them directly attributable to Covid (some amount of people with Covid deaths would have died anyways and the authors note increases in other causes that might be misclassified Covid or under-treatment deaths as well).

Excess Deaths Associated with COVID-19, by Age and ...

 

Seems caution is still keeping a large swath out of stores (or at least minimizing how often/how long) and from any large gatherings.

 

In part because all of those retailers offer delivery and curbside pickup. We've been in Sam's Club maybe twice since March, but have gotten curbside numerous times. Then again, we're just wimpy libbies hiding in our basement.

 

lol, at least you have the guts to admit it......

 

I dug a hole in my backyard and waterproofed it so I can hide there. Outside is so scary.

 

Why should that take guts?

 

it's a joke, lighten up.

 

wish you had a cold-war bomb shelter right about now?

 

no, the hole is comfy. Bomb shelters are too big and like outside. need small space for safe feeling.

 

Well I started the joke, so there's no need for me to lighten up either.

 

did you get the whole world crying? guess the song.

 

not having others survive with you i guess.