Coronavirus in the United States - news and thoughts

Should have asked her why she went to the hospital for a hoax.

 

What about regions that have done well. Why do we have to shut down for 6 weeks?

 

This is somewhat a myth. Our retail businesses for my organization are near pre-covid levels (We do require 100% mask compliance, so I am sure some refuse to patronize us.), and their are waiting lists for restaurants etc.

I think most Americans are back out there.

 

With Fewer Covid-19 Restrictions, South’s Economy Outperforms Nation

Not surprising at all.

 

North Carolina mobility data:

Retail and recreation: -12%
Grocery and Pharmacy: -1%
Parks: +59%
Transit stations: -23%
Workplaces: -29%
Residential: +8%

https://www.gstatic.com/covid19/mobility/2020-10-13_US_North_Carolina_Mobility_Report_en.pdf

 

No, it isn’t. It’s pretty obvious. I couldn’t read the article, but the rest of the headline also includes acknowledgement of increased cases and death as well. The real question is how does the south’s economy compare relative to its own precovid? I’d imagine it’s no where near, which is the point most of us have tried to make. It’s not going to recover until the majority of consumers feel comfortable shopping, dinning, etc.

 

I think had we done this 7 months ago, maybe....but right now no small business can suffer another 6 week shutdown.

I have owned two (and still own one part-time) business. I have many friends that are self employed. I can't think of one that could survive a 6 week shutdown without at best having to terminate most of their staff.

I don't think people who haven't owned a business really get the impact that a lengthy loss of cash flow places on a small business.

I am not a fan of name calling by either side here, but this idea that Americans should just lock down for 6 weeks and that many would be cool with it is misguided.

By the way Retail has bounced back better than previous recessions...even with the fear factor involved.

 

Please clarify who you are speaking of as you did not quote anyone.

 

"Retail and recreation"...when did combining those two things become a category?
Retail has bounced back nationwide faster than previous recessions.
Libraries and theme parks and theaters are still basically closed in my state (or at least at very limited capacity restrictions). Of course they will bring the metric down. Combining closed businesses with open ones is a flat manipulation of the metrics.

Some here are saying that most folks are still not eating out and shopping, and that is false. Most people are eating out and shopping, and the numbers are very good considering the government imposed capacity restrictions. I dare say if there were no capacity caps we would be back to normal....And for the record, I support the caps.

 

You have to compare say the South to the Northeast. It's not even close economically. NYC is a ghost town. Jersey Shore businesses this summer were decimated. Compare the apples to apples. And the south is outperforming the rest of the US. It's much better but of course not all the way back, but most restaurants in my area have long waits on the weekends and their take out business is up significantly. I think malls are getting killed though. Will make brick and mortar stores die even faster while making Amazon and Walmart and Target richer.

 

Take it up with google. But if certain recreational facilities remain closed, it makes sense that there would be shifting spending habits. Combining all of the "out there" that people can be makes sense if your goal is to understand how "out there" people actually are, not just how specific sectors are being affected.

 

Well I mean the point upthread was about day to day things like retail and eating out. Theme parks being closed should not be included in trying to manipulate that. Google is being way to vague. The retail sector is much more concerned with handling the shift to e-commerce hitting brick and mortar than they are with this virus. This virus did weed our a few of the weaker big names that were already on life support, but outside of that retail traffic is doing very well under the circumstances. That data is out there.

 

Brace yourselves, people. We are about to begin two months of holiday COVID commericials. If you think the first wave of them was bad..."Since you can't be with your loved ones in these uncertain times, buy them all a bunch of crap and leave it on their doorstep and wave from the car!"

 

I doubt that theme parks are having a huge effect on those numbers, given that a very low proportion of general activity is in going to theme parks. But if you limit the number of places people can go, even in a circumstance in which overall mobility is down, you can have higher traffic to the remaining outlets. If you lower overall activity by 10% and cut off destinations that used to account for 20% of mobility, in fact, you would see exactly that.

 

I don’t see that as apples to apples though. One region is basically opened up completely the NE hasn’t. That’s not a fair comparison at all considering the article acknowledges that the results of opening were deaths increasing. Comparing where the South’s economy was this time last year to what it is currently in my opinion is a more valuable comparison to gauge against the lost lives.

If the south is reopened, deaths are up, and still falling woefully short of where we were this time last year, is it worth it? There’s no real answer to that question, but that would be apples to apples.

I had a similar discussion with a co worker last week. Our regional director was bragging about how we, the SE region, made a clean sweep in three nationwide sales contests my company was running. I wasn’t really as proud as he was considering we’re the only region laughing in the face of the virus with damn near all customers fully reopened. Of course we won.

 

I am saying you cant make the claim that some are here, that retaiil and food are down because people wont go out, when in reality the only thing holding them down are restrictions.

Most people are masking up and going about their lives at this point, and using a place like Carowinds here in NC as a factor is misleading at best. Businesses are not still suffering because people are scared to be out. Businesses are suffering because of government restrictions on capacity and the fact that some businesses are still flat out shut down by the governor. Businesses that are open are doing pretty darn good under the circumstances.

My gym is packed.
My business is up comp to LY since June 1.
The line at Publix is 100% back to normal.
I have to call around to even find a table to eat.

Fear of the citizenry is not killing the economy.

That is all I am saying.

 

Claiming that the "only thing holding them down are restrictions" is unsupported. BTW, if you want to look at the county data to pull out Carowinds, you can easily do so. Again though, on overall statewide mobility data, that is going to be a very small impact.

It is highly likely that there is a combination of both factors, given that there are absolutely individuals that are not going out as much as they used to do. The word "most" recognizes that fact, but then you argue against the existence of a reduction in mobility because many people don't want to get Covid. For example, my aunt had lymphoma last year. Before Covid, she was moving around. Now she isn't beyond necessities (nor was her son who was living with her until about a month ago to help take care of her through the illness and recovery). That has an impact.

 

It's not the Souths fault that the NE has been closed down. That is their issue up north. They could be open but because their Govt. officials want to keep kids out of school and keep everything shut down. That's the debate. Stay shut down and go broke. Can't wait for a vaccine. Every kid in the US should have the opportunity to attend in person learning in school and also have the option to learn remotely during the crisis.

 

Agreed. It was a wasted opportunity. A lot of the tools we had in our toolbelt are no longer really available. Contact tracing at this point is a nightmare since the virus is so widespread. We have a large portion of population that started acting like the virus was over as soon as we started opening things back up. People don't like mandates, put unfortunately it's what you need in a crisis.
We have virulent anti-maskers and people that see themselves as Patriots when they violate the protocols that are laid out.
It's a total mess right now. Worse time ever to be a divided country.
Now more than ever we need some Esprit de corps of Americans to get a handle on this thing.

 

8 Million Americans Slipped Into Poverty Amid Coronavirus Pandemic, New Study Says

Tragic. And staying shut down will only make it worse.