Coronavirus in the United States - news and thoughts

they look green to me

 

For those of you who want a case study in how the virus is passed, please see the Trump thread and information associated with those infected who were at the White House last Saturday and then circulated to other places. A perfect case study. For the rest of you, keep posting raw and flawed data that doesn’t prove your point. And as case numbers are increasing again, let’s all sit back and follow the data later that will again show that you are wrong.

 

the first pic is a much lighter shade than normal.
I did notice on the drive back up i81 that some of the leaves in Shenandoah National Park were starting to change. One of these weeks it will show up on a broader scale.

 

Cam Newton tested positive. I have him on my FF team, so I'm having to play Gardner Minshew instead (yeah, I'm weak at QB). My sense is this is the tip of the iceberg and we're going to be seeing a lot more players testing positive and more postponed games in the next few weeks. In college ball too probably.

 

LOL, yeah let’s not look at raw data and charts. Let’s look at one specific case and that shows everything. Bold move Cotton.

 

I fear you are correct. There very well may be a snowball effect coming. I have the Steelers & Patriots defenses. Looks like I'll have to drop one, which stinks.

 

He also said that the death toll is also probably underestimated...why leave out some of the facts?

Official COVID-19 death toll probably underestimates true total - WHO

“If anything, the numbers currently reported probably represent an underestimate of those individuals who have either contracted COVID-19 or died as a cause of it,” Mike Ryan, the WHO’s top emergencies expert, told a briefing in Geneva.

“When you count anything, you can’t count it perfectly but I can assure you that the current numbers are likely an underestimate of the true toll of COVID,” he said.

 

He gave a number for the estimated Covid cases. Underestimating can be by 1 or a 100 or a 1,000 or any number. And if he’s going to say that at least say dying of Covid and with Covid. Big difference.

 

Exactly. So recalculating an infection fatality rate is just misleading when you're told the numerator is also underestimated by the same source, but without sufficient details.

 

Not at all. I’m using the numbers he provided. Take it up with him. If threw out a number I’d use it. He didn’t so that’s that.

 

I don't have to take it up with him. He stated in the same forum that the number of deaths is also underestimated, but was unable to provide a more precise number.

So you took the one number he did provide an estimate of while keeping the other constant to calculate your IFR, without acknowledging that the other is also off (from the same WHO official), which is misleading.

I get that maybe your intention was not to do that, but you did. It's okay. Acknowledge and move on and don't cite that IFR elsewhere because it's misinformation.

 

it’s ok that Covid isn’t that deadly. The WHO confirmed it. No biggie. Just get all the schools back open and things can get back to some sense of normalcy.

 

today....

 

The WHO didn't confirm that at all - in fact the dude said, the world is in for a "hell of a ride". That sounds ominous, not comforting.

 

No, he confirmed it. It’s cool, though, you keep being scared, me and most of the normal people are getting back a sense of normalcy.

 

Please don't project your feelings onto me. I'm not scared at all. I do research on this topic including the impact on small businesses as part of my job. I have a pretty defined viewpoint of how we should be doing re-openings including the fact that we should make some tough decisions to keep small business alive.

What bothers me is when people pick and choose data points to create misleading claims just to support their own opinion. And are not willing to change opinions when the data is staring them straight in their face.

So yea, "it's cool", you keep convincing yourself that things are normal.

 

Schools have been open for going on 8 weeks now so yeah, it’s cool. Data says this is a nothing virus to anyone under the age of 50. Those are indisputable facts.

 

Actually, no, it's not "indisputable". The data is evolving because this is far from over. Hence, why the WHO person thinks our estimate of cases is off. I'm sorry that you're not comfortable with uncertainty. I understand that can elicit a lot of fear and anxiety from people. But there is no need to project it onto others or to pick bits and pieces of data from different sources to stitch together a reality that best fits your view of the world.

I never said that schools shouldn't be open nor did I say that those under 50 are at similar risk so I'm not sure why you're lecturing me on info that isn't relevant to the fact that I corrected you on. Also, there is certainly evidence that younger people can be susceptible because it's not just about age. For instance, if you have an immunodeficiency disorder or if you have diabetes or other cardiovascular issues, the virus can be very deadly. Yes, that is less likely for younger people, but the point is it's not purely age-based. I could point you to all the data sources, but clearly you're not interested in that.

The fact that you seem to refuse to acknowledge you made a mistake is fine, that is your prerogative whether out of fear or otherwise. As long as you're not making policy decisions.

So yea, again, "its cool". Have a nice one.

 

Evolving LOL. That’s what people say when they don’t like the facts.

 

As I said, I do this as part of my job. The situation is absolutely evolving. I'm going to guess you may have been one of the people who thought this all was just a faint, distant incident in China when it popped up. In fact, you were the one that took some numbers to update your brand new IFR to declare that as a new fact.

What's sad is I'm probably closer to your view on how we should reopen than you think. But your whole line of logic is...well...lacking so I can't possibly support the way you came to your conclusions.

I would LOL back, but it's more sad than anything.