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Coronavirus in the United States - news and thoughts

Discussion in 'Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by GatorNorth, Feb 25, 2020.

  1. gator95

    gator95 GC Hall of Fame

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    Yeah, it's not too much of a stretch to go there. Maybe for you who said before I posted the stats that death certificates were to be believed. Oops. 25% to me is systematic. And then throw the extra money hospitals will get for a Covid death and it's ripe for fraud. But, F it. Lets just count all 2.9 million deaths this year as Covid. Since you believing anything you read(except when I post it) maybe you can try to get that done.
     
  2. mdgator05

    mdgator05 Premium Member

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    Then you don't understand the word "systematic" in this context. What direction are those errors going? To over-report some disease? Under-report some diseases?
     
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  3. AzCatFan

    AzCatFan GC Hall of Fame

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    Here's an article with a study from U of Minn that suggests an early undercount of cases due to testing shortages. Helps to confirm the theory that early on, deaths were undercounted as well, as only those with a positive test were included in both illness and death totals. Which is suggested in this article back from April.

    We've had about 200,000 more deaths than expected averages, and agree that deaths from things like automobile accidents are likely down. It's unlikely that deaths from Alzheimer's are up to match the decrease in accidents, especially since very few, if any, die directly from Alzheimer's. It's a comorbidity that usually causes either a stroke, heart attack, or in the case of my Father-in-Law, renal failure, that is actual cause of death.
     
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  4. gator95

    gator95 GC Hall of Fame

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    Of course they are. It's actually funny. Just move right on by it like it's not there. I do agree that I believe we should've had 2 ways to label Covid deaths. 1 being the main cause and the other being secondary.
     
  5. exiledgator

    exiledgator Gruntled

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    I didn't mean to imply you were being rude or snarky or anything. Context is hard with the written word, and I should have chosen mine better right there. All good, my brother.

    But the point stands. Data v data =/= data v imagination.

    As for knowing reality. Yes, that's always evolving. Science is like that. But one thing we know is:

    [​IMG]

    Any insinuation that those numbers represent deaths from untreated cancer, Alzheimers, etc., is pretty foolish. The day we shut down, undetected cancer started dropping people by the thousands?
     
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  6. mdgator05

    mdgator05 Premium Member

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    There would be no purpose to this. A correctly filled out death certificate would have a very small number of proximate causes. Multisystem failure, heart failure, and asphyxiation would cover the vast majority of deaths. From a public health perspective, the goal is to know the underlying reason of those symptoms. Covid doesn't directly kill anybody. The symptoms caused by Covid does.
     
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  7. gator95

    gator95 GC Hall of Fame

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    ONS report shows 52% increase in excess deaths of people dying of dementia – Alzheimer’s Society comments.

    Article from England. Up 52%. Yeah, that's a big number.
     
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  8. exiledgator

    exiledgator Gruntled

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    So, why do we spend money to treat Alzheimers? It doesn't kill anyone!! Tyranny!

    - 6% theory people
     
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  9. gator95

    gator95 GC Hall of Fame

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    They've done a piss poor job for years. If I failed 20-30% of the time in my job i'd be fired. I guess you have different standards.
     
  10. coleg

    coleg GC Hall of Fame

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    Auto accidents don't kill. All those people were going to die anyway and besides most of Americans are suffering from obesity. Sad that proven facts simply don't matter.
     
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  11. mdgator05

    mdgator05 Premium Member

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    Okay, let's dig down into that statement with my father used as an example again. My father is diagnosed with a rare disorder that primarily affects his kidneys and heart. The treatment of that is to knock out his immune system with high dose chemo. During that process, he contracts a fungal pneumonia. The fungal pneumonia causes fluid build-up in the lungs. Upon being unable to treat that, they pull him off of life support and he dies of multisystem failure. What does the error-free death certificate say?
     
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  12. gator95

    gator95 GC Hall of Fame

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    Sounds like both are were the main killers. So list them both as the main. Seems reasonable to me. Now lets look at what I posted. Congestive Heart failure along with chronic renal failure and then add Covid. Oh, the person was 90. Did Covid kill this person? You and I have no idea but to think Covid is the cause of every death associated with it is crazy.
     
  13. mdgator05

    mdgator05 Premium Member

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    Both what? I listed the rare disorder, chemo therapy which knocked out his immune system, pneumonia, and multisystem failure. Which two are we leaving off of the top line? Also, it should be noted that most states restrict line 1/a to one cause of death.
     
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  14. gator95

    gator95 GC Hall of Fame

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    I'm not a medical examiner but if i had to guess I'd go rare disorder 1st. But if I was a medical examiner I'm confident I wouldn't fail at my job 20-3-% of the time. Sorry to hear about your dad. Losing loved ones is always a tragic situation.
     
  15. oragator1

    oragator1 Premium Member

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    my apologies if you thought I was “lame”. I almost never block people and didn’t realize I wasn’t following an agreed to protocol.
    Seriously though, I “announced it” so I could say why, in the hopes others would stop feeding into what he wants, which is to have his trolling answered. The thread has been largely wrecked.
    I honestly don’t get how you can’t see the chaos he is causing (Just look at the last ten pages), but whatever.
     
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  16. mdgator05

    mdgator05 Premium Member

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    Medical examiners don't certify deaths except in specific situations. The doctor that declared the patient dead do. And the point that I was making was that "error" rates is highly subjective based on the notion of what warrants inclusion and what doesn't in a non-theoretical case. Pneumonia and lack of an immune system were not included. The rare disorder was listed as the secondary cause to multisystem failure. Was this an error? Some might say yes. However, I don't think so.

    Regardless, there is no evidence of systematic overreporting of Covid deaths. And error rates of including or not including secondary causes in a somewhat random fashion in typical, real-world death scenarios (when cause of death is complex with a variety of diseases/disorders and symptoms involved) do not get us closer to showing a systematic overreport of one disease.
     
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  17. gator95

    gator95 GC Hall of Fame

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    I showed the error rates of reporting of deaths before Covid. Now you think they are up to par? Ok. Not going to discuss further with someone so blinded by ignorance.
     
  18. gators81

    gators81 Premium Member

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    Then stop pretending you know how to do their job better than they do...
     
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  19. gator95

    gator95 GC Hall of Fame

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    Oh, so no one is allowed to criticize anyone anymore? Everyone gets a trophy! Good job on that 30% failure last month!

    Sorry to play that game, but when you say something ignorant, expect it to get slapped down.
     
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  20. mdgator05

    mdgator05 Premium Member

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    And I pointed out that the error rate wasn't systematic. It wasn't that people were declaring people had cancer when they didn't. There is a far trip between "Pneumonia should maybe listed as a cause but wasn't on this specific form" to "They are systematically overreporting deaths of a certain cause."

    BTW, that last sentence, Exhibit C, @tilly. Let me know when we have enough exhibits.
     
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