Coronavirus in the United States - news and thoughts

Dude, there is so much wrong with this I don’t know where to begin. I’m going to keep it as easy to explain as I can. If someone asks you for the total deaths in July, who the hell brings up June? Stop acting like this is complicated. The guy got caught in a lie and tried to fabricate his numbers and got called out. Simple as that.

 

We weren't discussing total deaths in July. We were discussing what happened with the surge. The surge in deaths didn't start until about 1 week into July, so the prior to surge numbers will be 7-day moving averages for days in early July. The peak also started in July and went through early August. It really isn't that hard to follow if you just try. I believe in your ability to do it (despite the evidence)!

 

Someone doesn't understand rolling or moving average. Here's a quick guide.

And again, using rolling average for COVID is a much better data point, especially since weekend numbers tend to be under-reported, and Tuesday numbers, which report for Monday, are often inflated. Using rolling 7-day averages means all 7 days of the week are included in the number, which would remove any weekend bias.

Once again, the 7-day rolling average for 9/1 would include all data in Sep 1, and the last 6 days in August.

Yes, you can ask for total deaths in July and bringing up June wouldn't fit the narrative. But there could be slight bias in reporting numbers depending on the number of weekend days in a month. For example, July had 8 weekend days, but August, which started on a Saturday, actually had 10 weekend days. Just looking monthly, we might get an incorrect picture of the month. A better look would be using the rolling, 7 day average for each day of the month, which removes the weekend bias, since all 7-day averages include one, single weekend.

If you still can't understand, I don't think I can help any more except to say rolling averages are very common in business, because they give a more accurate, temperature check number. We still report monthly totals, but when we are looking at the health of certain business channels, we look at 3-month, 6-month, and 12-month rolling averages and compare YOY. Doing so helps remove calendar bias in the industry I'm in. A good example of calendar bias is say Valentine's Day for a Flower shop.

 

None so blind as those who choose not to see.

 

If you have a right to your own opinion then I have a right to say it’s dumb.

no one brought up 7 day rolling average until he was caught fudging his numbers. Stop making crap up. It’s embarrassing. If someone says hey, did deaths rise is July? Heck yeah they did! Here are June’s numbers to prove it! Just unbelievable.

 

Buckeye was discussing July to August. Nothing about June involved. Keep reaching...

 

Setting aside that he wasn't talking about the increases within July (and your continued lying about it as it has been pointed out to you multiple times), if you are trying to figure out whether numbers increased during a month, wouldn't it make sense to look at the numbers at the beginning of the month and compare them to numbers at the end of the month? I compared the 7-day moving average at the beginning of the month with the 7-day moving average at the end of the month. What would be your preferred method of figuring out if numbers increased over the month?

 

Here's the original post with the early July numbers from md. @gator95, notice the phrase 7 day moving average, Erich I conveniently bolded for you.

 

This has been some of the best TH entertainment I've had in a while.

We should just move the last 4-5 pages into the covid humor thread.

 

Seriously, who would have thought "college football political board" for a TheJosh remix?

 

from a uga poster on a reddit football forum

not only are there 800+ positive tests, the school is only doing 300 tests a day, and they're booked full for over a week

edit: also, frats and sororities are telling members to not get tested bc they know they have it and dont want to get sent home. also teachers are being forced to include an in-person part of their classes

 

Can’t argue with someone who keeps lying. It’s like you are Costanza. If you believe it, it’s not a lie.

 

(Un?)fortunately for us, the original TheJosh didn't have a sidekick. Guess we just get double the chuckles.

 

The doom and gloom squad just won’t quit. Numbers are dropping and they when the “wait 2 weeks” shtick doesn’t work anymore they go to the unsubstantiated “other side effects” BS to scare people. They will trot out some anecdotal story showing an example “proving” what they said. Must be terrible living like that. Just 2 more months and then when Biden wins you guys can be happy again.

 

a couple of more from Montserrat. the church itself is encapsulated to a large degree with the structure in the center of the first image. monastery rooms and educational facilities occupy whatever else is filled by the gift shops, exhibits, and cafeteria.


this is the entry to the church from a courtyard surrounded by living quarters and offices/classrooms


another random stained glass window

 

Just so that you understand, we aren't laughing with you at this point.

 

I am laughing at you as are most non partisan people. Sorry to keep calling you out for lying. But someone has to do it.

 

Sorry that Football is starting back also. I know you and the other bro’s we’re adamant that football wouldn’t happen. Oops.

 

When we left Barcelona we flew Norwegian Air to Oslo and then to the SW town of Stavanger where we picked up our rental car (diesel turbo audi station wagon) and went to our Air BNB in a unit right on the water in the little town of Forsand. Forsand is at the head of two giant fjords, one of which had our two main hikiing targets on this trip. Preikostolen (aka Pulpit Rock) and Kjerag. Driving in Norway was a trip (slow, lots of roads narrow to one lane just to avoid a tree) and the use of ferries is standard. More ferries than bridges on our road trip that consisted of the SW area, drive up to Bergen, and some exploring around Bergen.


48 KM from airport to Forsand took us almost 2 hours once we waited on Ferry



port was off of the port side of this view on Oanes and then we had to drive across the bridge min the background and loop back down to small town. Great BNB on dock overlooking fjord

 

God we need to make the last few pages e-famous.