even though deaths have risen this week, it has not been meteoric in nature, hopefully they level off at about where they are, and begin a slow daily drop like about a month ago
This continued decrease appears to be good news. When you consider, though, the fact that cases have skyrocketed, is a minimal decrease in death rate really good? Just for example . . . 100k cases, death rate of 10% = 10,000 deaths 500k cases, death rate of 8% = 40,000 deaths 2million cases, death rate of 5% = 100,000 deaths 8million cases, death rate of 3% = 240,000 deaths I'm just playing with numbers here, but with the kinds of exponential growth in cases we are seeing and the gradual decrease in fatality rates, there are still hugely increasing numbers of fatalities.
The three day increases have been largely up, then a little bit down, but mostly up. The latest interval is alarming in all ways . . . not good news. Increases Date.......world cases.....world deaths.....U.S. cases.....U.S. deaths May3........255,940............14,061...............93,006...........4,731 May6........258,072............16,907...............75,063...........6,212 May9........278,941............15,389...............84,217...........5,238 May12......239,189............12,376...............61,327...........3,388 May15......284,608............15,658...............75,649...........5,082 May18......266,271............11,660...............66,009...........3,474 May21…....303,083…….....…14,472………........70,608…….......4,373 May24..…..303,683…….....…12,072…….....…...65,534…….......2,946 May27…....291,339…….....…10,756………........59,367…….......2,807 May30…....364,906…….....…13,454………........71,017…….......3,450 June2…...…324,528…….....…11,316………........64,385…....…...2,502 June5…...…365,955…….....…15,934………........84,503…….......3,331 June8…...…349,307…….....…10,486…….....…...60,785…….......1,665 June11…....395,623…....……15,077………........63,208……........2,979 June14…....394,966……....…11,489…….....…...72,527……........1,824 June17…....416,062……....…16,082………........72,243……........2,083 June20…....513,453…....……15,422………........96,107……........2,039 June23…....431,986……....…12,264…….....…...93,590……........1,493 June26…....558,418…....……17,896……….......128,788…..........4,167 June29…....535,253……....…11,239……….......128,855…..........1,143 July2...…....574,195……....…15,882……….......155,378…….......2,702 July5...…....573,206…....……12,875……….......145,739…….......1,084 July8...…....610,409…....……15,274……….......176,004…….......2,293 July11...…..674,987……....…15,599……….......196,714…….......2,541 July14.....…615,422……....…13,572……….......189,431…….......1,740 July17.....…731,765……....…18,120……....…...224,935…….......2,921 July20.....…665,107……....…13,872……….......191,417…......….1,770 July23.....…797,581……....…23,257……….......208,562…….......3,499
Updated stats from world o meter as of 8 am EDT. There were 14 states with a decrease in active cases, although I can't vouch for this number, someone came into my office just as I was finishing counting. It could be in the 14-16 range. There were 9 states with just 1-2 deaths and 5 states with 0 deaths.
Yesterday I entered the death rate as 3.55% when it actually was 3.58%. I was surprised when I entered the 3.55% today and noticed it hadn't changedwhich did not make sense from a mathematical standpoint so I looked back at yesterday and saw the number was 3.58%.
I think there will be a lag in this as the reported cases happen early in the "life" of the case where the death occurs obviously at the end of the case. With deaths happening 2-4 weeks (I am assuming) after diagnosis, there will be a lag. If the number of new cases remained constant of a period of time then the decrease in the death rate is a great thing.
I know this is not a popular opinion, but I am still unsettled by the focus the fatality rate is receiving. To me, it is a measure of our treatment success (go science!) and our efforts to isolate the most vulnerable. It is not, however, indicative of our success at ending this pandemic. As some have calculated, a smaller case fatality rate in the face of a much larger number of cases may still be a disaster in lives and the economy. It reminds me of someone boasting about third down efficiency when the team is down by 35 pts. It's nice to see you're good at something, but you're still getting blown out. I want to see cases and positive rates going trending down. [/rant]
My sense is the "experts" have had the true death rate pegged somewhere in the .5%-1% range for awhile now. South Korea basically pegged it there very early with their robust testing, and I've gone with that assumption ever since then - nothing I've seen has convinced me of anything substantially different. Of course they also seemed to identify very early that death rates vary wildly across age groups, so pegging an "overall" rate can also be kind of misleading. It can both give people a false sense of security, or terrorize them, depending on which age group a person belongs to. I'd say with these numbers, anyone over 60 should be pretty terrorized. South Korea: COVID-19 death rate by age group | Statista For people in the 30's and 40's, the death rate is "flu-like", but that is obviously still concerning considering the lack of any natural immunity and lack of any great therapeutics for those who get seriously ill. These people should be concerned for themselves, not be fearful, but also should have consideration for their neighbors who may have good reason to be fearful. However, it only takes a person in their 50's to see it hit .66%, which is already several times more deadly than influenza. This is where there should be genuine concern, and obviously once you hit 70's and 80's this thing is extremely deadly and many many times more fatal than influenza.
I totally get where you're coming from with this, but it's a pretty cornerstone stat and one I'm glad to see trend downward. What are the important stats? Cases, Cases/mil Deaths, Deaths/mil Death rate (deaths/case)
I don't think these mortality vs "official cases" numbers really mean anything though, other than showing the "official" numbers moving in the direction of the "theorized" numbers. Which makes sense, as we are testing more and creating larger sample sizes. While the U.S. testing has improved, it never caught up to really represent a "random sample". It's still not even close to a random sample, it's still heavily biased towards people showing symptoms, which is why the mortality was 5+% and even now is still 3+%. South Korea's early testing was so robust, it more closely resembled a "random sample" - capturing everyone, including asymptomatic and not infected, and thus their rates are both much lower and more representative. IMO. That is not to say the rate lowering means nothing, it does at least indicate our testing has broadened from the total disaster it had been for several months. It may also represent that we are doing better treating the disease, by all accounts the medical field is learning as we go. But I think looking purely at hospital admittance and ICU survival rates would be better tools to evaluate that type of success.
Agreed. It is important to understand the entire context of the stat, which you've outlined well here. I guess my point is: I see the hoax crowd pointing it out, and the it's-real crowd minimizing it and we should all be cognizant of our biases at work. Again, context and understanding are very important, but the number falling is also very good. Both can happen simultaneously.
Agreed. The good seroprevalence studies have generally showed it in that range. I assumed most people knew it was never a 5% fatality rate that you get from simply dividing the number of fatalities by known cases. The truth is we were only catching 1 in 10 cases early on and now are catching way more of them so the denominator is getting closer to the actual number. However, better treatment and protecting the vulnerable does help the rate as well.
# of people hospitalized with covid would seem to be relevant as it tracks the severity of the cases and is likely a leading indicator to the number of deaths sans new and improved treatments
You have to consider cases because even mild ones require at least SOME kind of treatment, testing, etc. that tax the system; not to mention, even the lax new guidelines won't allow openings where the spread is still so rampant. Fatality rate's important; but we're not getting it done with those numbers... our resources are not inexhaustible.
Make sure your hand sanitizer isn't toxic! Link to 75 recalled products-- https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/07/24/hand-sanitizer-recall/
This is pretty sobering... A Texas hospital is so overrun with coronavirus cases that officials say it will send the patients least likely to survive home to die
FAKE NEWS!!! This is exactly what happened in Italy. At the time I thought "There is no way that will happen in the US". Then came New York. Now 3 months later in Texas. This is inexcusable.
