Coronavirus in the United States - news and thoughts

So, you probably "get" the flu every year. It is all around us all the time. Your body fights it off and you don't even know it. Maybe you had a sneezing fit one day and that was it, or were just a little tired. I point this out so that there are fair comparisons between influenza and covid.

 

Ah thanks. That makes sense. When I see it reported in the news, it often comes with that days title, eg “Tuesday’s covid count”, but it’s usually early in the day, so I was never quite sure what they were counting.

 

Can you share your research?

Those similarities in community diseases may not be material to the discussion at hand. You could say the same thing about the common cold and COVID-19.

 

the cdc estimates for flu death rates assume around 40 million people get it a year. Or about 12 percent of the population.

 

Research? This is the basic way our immue system works. Yes, I could say the same thing about the common cold and COVID-19. I am trying to point out that saying the flu is worse because it has bad symptoms but COVID is better because the symptoms can be mild or non-existent implies that there aren't times when the flu, or the cold, also cause little to no symptoms.

 

That's a whole lot of stupid.

 

Your research that we probably "get" the flu every year. I would imagine the R0 of the seasonal flu would be much greater than 1.3 if it infected all of us annually. In fact, the NCBI estimates that 9% of the world's population gets infected from the flu every year.

I don't understand your use of "bad" and "better". Are you talking about the likelihood of asymptotic infections? Or asymptomatic transmissions?

 

Sorry, I'm sitting in a hospital waiting room so maybe not being clear. There has been a lot of talk about asymptomatic carriers of COVID-19, and I think there is a feeling among some people that this is highly unusual. Depending on the disease, it's not. But not because we don't react, it's that our immune systems react differently. In some people, they are infected with the flu and they get very ill. Other people get infected and they have little to no symptoms, even though their immune system is reacting. Here is the first study that popped up in Google.
Why some people don't get the flu

There is a difference between exposed and infected, but it's not a strict dividing line based on the way we work. Our bodies fight off invaders all the time. Depending on the pathogen, our bodies can fight off some infections after they have started but have not gained a foothold. Also, due to more or less asymptomatic cases, infection rates may be hard to estimate, so reported numbers will actually be estimates of those showing obvious symptoms. Here is a list of some terms and explanations I found.

Glossary of Terms for Infectious Disease Modelling: A Proposal for Consistent Language

That's all I'm trying to say, that influenza is not more dangerous than COVID because there are some cases where symptoms are mild. I am pointing out that there are times when influenza is also mild, and it is probably more common than some people may think.

 

out of curiosity, we know there is a lag time from when a test is given and results reported, that is why 2 or 3 days of positive show on 1 day, is it the same with deaths, are they reported the same day, and this is by no means a morbid question, just curious how it differs from test results.

 

Death numbers are even worse to look at in "real time" than test results. They are constantly going back and updating deaths for the specific dates people died. The state numbers must have to wait for medical examiners reports or some other nonsense that takes time. I don't think they bother doing that for tests (I could be wrong, but I can't imagine they do anything but report the immediate raw numbers for tests and then move on).

For deaths, whatever number for "July 21" they come out with today or tomorrow, is useless. Honestly, if you haven't figured that out by now...

If you want to know how many died on July 21st, you really need to wait 2 or 3 weeks to get an idea. We noticed this for awhile, picked a random day (July 2nd - state of FL), even just today the state of FL numbers added 2 more to July 2nd. On the day they reported it they reported 4 deaths! 19 days later it's 72 deaths on July 2nd.

 

Oh that's for sure. The ME sometimes calls me a week or longer later to confirm the cause of death for a patient, sometimes it's the next day. If the family requests an autopsy it can be even longer than that. It's highly variable.

 

Already 10% over last Tues. Closing in on June 9th high of (1104) and June 2nd (1147)

 

“We are in the process of developing a strategy that is going to be very, very powerful”

Trump at the clown show, I mean briefing, today.

We’re what???

In the process???

Very, very powerful???

Oh yeah “The virus will disappear” He’s still rocking the oldies.

Nov 3rd Vote

 

We developed the strategy, the rest of the developed world implemented it to perfection. We are the only ones who couldn't seem to figure out our instruction sheet. Which is made more appalling by the fact that we are the ones who wrote the thing.

 

A huge chunk of this is on Trump’s leadership. But it’s depressing how many people that should know better didn’t come to the aid of dying Americans and push back early and loudly.

I include in that group Fauci and Birks. They knew we were botching this thing. They should have been just lighting up the airwaves with their dissent. Instead they tried to play an inside game that they KNEW they were losing. It’s sad.

 

1113 with 30 mins of reporting to go. Beating June 9th, 7 weeks ago.

 

and you say i am obsessed with the numbers?

 

So I was having a discussion with a few CV-19 is a hoax and nowhere near as bad as the flu crowd today when the topic of death rate was brought up. Of course the first response was the death rate is like 0.06% because apparently if you take the 350 million people in the US only 100k or so have died. After explaining over and over that’s horrible math being used to bolster their opinion I started looking at the numbers and something popped out at me. Most are using the confirmed cases and deaths to get their numbers which makes better sense but still not 100% right to me. To get a more accurate picture I looked at recovered and deaths since those still fighting this could die or recover. If you take those numbers you get a drastically higher number for death rate. Any opinions on what we should really be looking at?

Side note testing was brought up as comparison to the flu and some don’t understand theirs no comparison. You don’t get tested for the flu unless you are really hurting and go to the doctor unlike the millions of tests we are doing for COVID many for those with zero symptoms.

 

I never said you were obsessed.

But there is a difference between what I post and you post.

I just post numbers with very little commentary.

You post numbers with bias and conspiracy theories.