I agree. I would say though. Cases have been rising much longer than two weeks, but deaths have been falling for almost 2 months. Let's hope the jump in deaths is an anomaly.
Unless there is a horrible spike in the fall due to schools opening, etc. I suspect that fatalities will continue to increase at lower rates than cases. As others have mentioned, case demographics, improved treatment, and increased caution by those at risk contribute to the relatively lower fatality rate. Now that the "wear a damn mask" message is becoming more universally accepted, we might just see things turn for the better. Call me an optimist.
Well new cases were down about 2500 today, deaths at 618, below the average since June 1st so, imo, its a good day
I’ve never heard of Simpson’s Paradox before stumbling onto this a few minutes ago. It’s about 9 or 10 tweets long:
Right now it is NOT a good trend we’re seeing in fla. Thanks to our gov and his following of trump siiiiiiggggghhhh https://tallahasseereports.com/2020...ive-trends-for-florida-in-coronavirus-battle/
Kimberly Guilfoyle -- Donald Trump Jr.'s girlfriend and top Trump campaign official -- tests positive for coronavirus - CNNPolitics Oops
So one guy on Twitter thinks we are about to have a bunch of New York's. We shall see. What he fails to do though is explain the numbers. So if Miami for instance is a hot spot and that is where we should look, then that means other areas are having amazingly low death rates. Right? I mean something is causing the overall death rate to decline as overall cases increase. The death rate keeps dropping as a whole. Why is that? Miami and Houston are having issues and yet the death rate nationally is STILL dropping. THAT is what he fails to explain. I have no idea if he is right or not. I just don't see him really answering the question.
Honestly, considering Florida's new daily case count has increased 10-fold since the start of June, those are pretty encouraging hospitalization stats.
He's offering a warning about what is to come. We'll see if he's right. His theory is that we're about to see the death rate start to increase in a major way. As we saw with NYC and parts of Italy, deaths start to pile up when our resources get overwhelmed. For example, Houston's resources are in the process of being overwhelmed. If that starts to happen in a bunch of different areas, the death rate is going to shoot up. But he did lend some credence to other explanations for why the death rate hasn't shot up yet.
Given how much more we know now than just a few short months ago, modest improvements in understanding of how to care for patients infected with the Corona virus, I could see a scenario where the death rates increases do not match the trend in increased cases. However, as ICU beds become filled and overwhelmed even, I could see an increase in deaths due to the normal emergencies and non-Covid related conditions as ICU beds are already occupied and hospitals are being pushed to their limits. Maybe not New York City or Italy, but still not good.
They know a lot more now. For example, COVID autopsies have been determined that clotting is a major problem. So now patients receive anticoagulants, which should help. The therapeutics are better. Also, the comorbiditoes are lower in younger infected. It doesn’t support our national policy of living with exponential spread, but is is a hope for lower morbidity. The problem is they as younger people have spread the disease, will see them sick first and then older people later. Hospitalizations and death will increase as a matter of statistics even if not at the percentage levels earlier. M
A Karen takes it to the next level. She berates a barista over being asked to wear a mask, posts it thinking she will get support, gets blown up, deletes the post, sees the kid she harassed get 100k in a gofundme campaign, and now is demanding half the money raised. Seriously. Woman who screamed at barista in face mask feud wants half of his $100K 'tip' | Daily Mail Online
Based on the hospitalizations, there is a real increase in new cases proportionately in areas that didn’t see a widespread outbreak before, but.... the amount of hospitalizations we should be seeing based on what happened three months ago are clearly way down.
