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Coronavirus in the United States - news and thoughts

Discussion in 'Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by GatorNorth, Feb 25, 2020.

  1. OklahomaGator

    OklahomaGator Jedi Administrator Moderator VIP Member

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    Stats, I posted earlier, fancy chart, I do not have.
     
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  2. tilly

    tilly Superhero Mod. Fast witted. Bulletproof posts. Moderator VIP Member

    I agree. I would say though. Cases have been rising much longer than two weeks, but deaths have been falling for almost 2 months.

    Let's hope the jump in deaths is an anomaly. :(
     
  3. duchen

    duchen VIP Member

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    Not the same as bacon from @FeeBart
     
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  4. gatordavisl

    gatordavisl VIP Member

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    Unless there is a horrible spike in the fall due to schools opening, etc. I suspect that fatalities will continue to increase at lower rates than cases. As others have mentioned, case demographics, improved treatment, and increased caution by those at risk contribute to the relatively lower fatality rate.

    Now that the "wear a damn mask" message is becoming more universally accepted, we might just see things turn for the better. Call me an optimist.
     
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  5. buckeyegator

    buckeyegator Premium Member

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    Well new cases were down about 2500 today, deaths at 618, below the average since June 1st so, imo, its a good day
     
  6. GatorNorth

    GatorNorth Premium Member Premium Member

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    I’ve never heard of Simpson’s Paradox before stumbling onto this a few minutes ago. It’s about 9 or 10 tweets long:

     
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  7. homer

    homer GC Hall of Fame

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    DOH!!!!!

    Signed,

    Homer
     
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  8. PITBOSS

    PITBOSS GC Hall of Fame

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    Last edited: Jul 3, 2020
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  9. 96Gatorcise

    96Gatorcise GC Hall of Fame

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    Tampa
  10. tilly

    tilly Superhero Mod. Fast witted. Bulletproof posts. Moderator VIP Member

    So one guy on Twitter thinks we are about to have a bunch of New York's. We shall see.
    What he fails to do though is explain the numbers. So if Miami for instance is a hot spot and that is where we should look, then that means other areas are having amazingly low death rates. Right? I mean something is causing the overall death rate to decline as overall cases increase.

    The death rate keeps dropping as a whole. Why is that? Miami and Houston are having issues and yet the death rate nationally is STILL dropping. THAT is what he fails to explain.

    I have no idea if he is right or not. I just don't see him really answering the question.
     
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  11. LouisvilleGator

    LouisvilleGator GC Hall of Fame

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  12. gator_lawyer

    gator_lawyer VIP Member

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    He's offering a warning about what is to come. We'll see if he's right. His theory is that we're about to see the death rate start to increase in a major way. As we saw with NYC and parts of Italy, deaths start to pile up when our resources get overwhelmed. For example, Houston's resources are in the process of being overwhelmed. If that starts to happen in a bunch of different areas, the death rate is going to shoot up. But he did lend some credence to other explanations for why the death rate hasn't shot up yet.
     
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  13. ncargat1

    ncargat1 VIP Member

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    Given how much more we know now than just a few short months ago, modest improvements in understanding of how to care for patients infected with the Corona virus, I could see a scenario where the death rates increases do not match the trend in increased cases. However, as ICU beds become filled and overwhelmed even, I could see an increase in deaths due to the normal emergencies and non-Covid related conditions as ICU beds are already occupied and hospitals are being pushed to their limits.

    Maybe not New York City or Italy, but still not good.
     
    Last edited: Jul 4, 2020
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  14. duchen

    duchen VIP Member

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    They know a lot more now. For example, COVID autopsies have been determined that clotting is a major problem. So now patients receive anticoagulants, which should help. The therapeutics are better. Also, the comorbiditoes are lower in younger infected. It doesn’t support our national policy of living with exponential spread, but is is a hope for lower morbidity. The problem is they as younger people have spread the disease, will see them sick first and then older people later. Hospitalizations and death will increase as a matter of statistics even if not at the percentage levels earlier. M
     
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  15. oragator1

    oragator1 Premium Member

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    Last edited: Jul 4, 2020
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  16. OklahomaGator

    OklahomaGator Jedi Administrator Moderator VIP Member

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    I'm not updating the stats today or tomorrow.
     
  17. GatorGuyDallas

    GatorGuyDallas VIP Member

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    Enjoy the 4th. May it be with you.
     
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  18. RIP

    RIP I like touchdowns Premium Member

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    And also with you.
     
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  19. buckeyegator

    buckeyegator Premium Member

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    slacker
     
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  20. LouisvilleGator

    LouisvilleGator GC Hall of Fame

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    Based on the hospitalizations, there is a real increase in new cases proportionately in areas that didn’t see a widespread outbreak before, but.... the amount of hospitalizations we should be seeing based on what happened three months ago are clearly way down.
     
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