Thank you, guys. I missed you as well. Here's to more dignified electronic pissing matches in our future!
I, along with many scientists, have been very wrong about the outcome of this virus. While more testing may provide more opportunity for positive results, the new case numbers are clearly exploding right now. This is a marked trend.
No doubt about it, this is a very insidious virus and it's spreading at a higher rate now than it was a month ago, due to restrictions being lifted, protests and hey, eventually Trump rallies.
And I would be remiss if I didn't sign off for the next 30 minutes without a prediction. I predict that zero governors will shut everything back down again. The best play for America has always been to keep the more vulnerable population (ie ages 65+) quarantined and let the rest of the population go on, practicing social distancing and mask wearing to keep the spread subdued.
the disease was probably spreading a month ago, but with less daily tests then resulting in less new cases than now it looked better than now. many people saw , for example, 20,000 new cases daily a month ago, see 30,000 new cases daily now, but do not realize twice as many tests are being done, thus focusing on only half the picture.
Younger people are reported getting this disease now. We will soon find out how younger people handle it. The "bacon" is for "dignified."
So if you do twice as many tests and the percentage still goes up then what does that mean? Is it just sheer luck that you happened to find a larger percentage of positive people? @dangolegators is the statistician (I believe) and has tried to explain this to you unless I'm missing some seriously obvious point that's clear to you.
Funny on the bacon. I think we have plenty of data from around the world to know this thing hammers the 65+ population at an exponential rate. If you're under 50 and have no pre-existing conditions, your chance of death from Covid-19 is basically zero. Sure, you can still spread it, but if the elderly did a real quarantine, this virus would be a minor inconvenience instead of a pandemic.
in know this sounds hard to believe, but according to the covid tracking project, the last 10 days positive is 4.9%, granted they are a little behind on some numbers, but 4.9% seems good to me. they had 5,067,979 tests with 249,133 positive.
That Texas-OK game in October should be a blast this year. 95,000 in the Cotton Bowl and tens of thousands staying in town. Bet you can't wait!
It is kind of "fun with numbers" though right? They are averaging all of the states together. North Carolina has been between 9-10% positive for nearly a month now. There are quite a few other states with similar results. The US is not improving, it has simply re-distributed where the most cases are impacting people's lives. Further, we continue to see new "hot spots" and the more evidence of "super spreaders": 8 days after quarantine and testing negative, 142 Fort Benning soldiers test positive for COVID-19
you have to look at the country as a whole, you could, if you wanted to, say 5 states- florida,texas, california, arizona, and north carolina are accounting fort over half the new cases, but that would not give a accurate account.
I seem to recall either you or another poster wanting to exclude NY/NJ numbers because it made the country look bad, now you want to include all states to make the country look good? I wasn't even saying the whole country was doing poorly, just that some states have gone down and others are now going up. It's just numbers.
i never said discount ny/nj, you know my desire for accuracy. being a glass half full guy, when, and we will, get 5 or 6 states under control the numbers will look dramatically different, for the good.
