Great post. I was looking for a collection of these states in one spot. I saw it was 23 states. In a rational country, states with increases would shut down and be helped along by states that were in better shape. But, they requires national leadership. The growth in Utah is scary now
I've been pointing out as best I can on the FL COVID thread that the FL situation deserves more attention on the nuances to new hospitalizations and to recently reported deaths. The state is doing extremely well in both categories despite an increase in the number of cases. If the trend continues, it will give more credence to either the decreased potency of the virus or to the idea that many more folks have this disease that are not displaying severe symptoms. May these trends prove accurate! Go GATORS! ,WESGATORS
If you're interested, I could send you a lot of media-ignored stats as they pertain to FLORIDA. The hype is all around "cases," but what's being overlooked is the severity of the new cases that are turning up (or lack thereof). Hospitalizations have been trending downward in FLORIDA since late-April, but the media hasn't really caught on. The deaths per day has been trending downward by a large margin in FLORIDA, but there's a mismatch of information presented by the FDOH, so it's hard to identify which is more accurate, their reports or the dashboard. If people aren't cautious of the objectivity of the media reporting on such things, then they aren't paying attention. Just my two bits. Go GATORS! ,WESGATORS
North Carolina is completely out of control. # of cases are up and it has hit new records 4 times in the last 8 days. People blow it off saying that testing is up, and it is. However, that means we still have thousands of infected walking around not identified, creating more infections. Further, the % positive has steadily increased from 6% up to 10% now. We are entering a dangerous area where ~ 85% of the state's ICU beds are now full. And yet, the "know it alls" of our state continue to defy every mandate and recommendation from our governor while he does little. He continues to allow counties and sheriff's departments to openly defy him. I will go to my grave not understanding how people can be so proud to be so ignorant, and proudly put it on display each and every day.
I haven't tracked North Carolina, but in looking at the dashboard, they have seen an approximate 114% increase in new daily cases and an approximate 39% increase in current hospitalizations over the last 3-4 weeks (averaged first five/last five for each category). FLORIDA is kind of in a similar situation in terms of a recent spike in cases (not in recent hospitalizations), and it will be really interesting to see what if any impact that has on new hospitalizations (and/or if the reporting even looks similar between the two states). North Carolina's population is approximately 48% of FLORIDA's North Carolina's case count is approximately 56.5% of FLORIDA's North Carolina's active hospitalization is approximately 47.2% of FLORIDA's (FLORIDA doesn't provide one, the estimate is based on a 14-day running total of new hospitalizations) Go GATORS! ,WESGATORS
This is actually the first time I've ever said it. Florida had another 1180 new cases today (on a Sunday), making it the 5th day in a row with over 1000 new cases. It's really simple, the more cases we have, the more hospitalizations we will see. Expect to see an increase in hospitalizations in a week or 2.
I disagree that the rational course of action is for a state to shut down if there is an increase in cases. It is rational to expect increases as opening up happens. IMO, it is irrational to see this as a single variable optimization problem. Utah ain't that scary to me. 121 deaths & yeah their rate of increase looks bad, but that is mainly because they have such a low # of cases. I don't know, but I suspect a lot of the new cases are from pretty low risk people too. The protests do concern me. My daughter went to one Friday & camped last night with a bunch of folks that were at them all week. We are taking her to get tested in a week. Having said that, Larimer county has 0 people in the hospital with CV.
Except that places didn’t drive the numbers low enough when they were reopened. So testing and contact tracing will be less effective. I hope your daughter will be fine.
I was never opposed to re-opening the state and getting people back to work. But....it needed to be delayed until the community spread was on the down swing, but other states were opening and our governor was more afraid of losing the coming election than doing the right things. North Carolina never peaked, and it is now peaking each new day. Worse yet, people are so cavalier because stats still show 83% of the deaths are 65 and older....like that makes it ok that our grand parents are dying. However, to everyone's horror, an 8 year old girl died Friday night after battling complications from Covid-19. It took less than 1 week for her to go from not feeling well, to a seizure, to a coma she never woke up from to death. There was no need for her to die. This is what our "only kills old people" mentality has led to.
That is not the case in New Hanover County. People are abiding. You folks on the Western side are screwing it up.
The further out of the cities you get, the more conspiracy folks, "no one gonna done take my rah-ghts" folks....and, well car racing.
NCs numbers aren't nearly as bad as it seems though. Out of 17,000 hospitalizations statewide, only 600 are Covid related. The percent impact on ICUs is low too. The state is currently using less than 40% of its available ventilators . I mean, no commentary added here, just numbers The numbers are indeed showing up based on testing. It is still to early to tell about the reopening, but most of our state has done a solid job of operating withing Phase 2.
You've seen about a doubling in the average number of daily new cases in the last 2 weeks. Hospitalizations will almost certainly follow.
No way to know that. IF the testing increases account for testing numbers, hospitalizations wont rise in theory. I know that is an IF...but there is no data to the contrary at the moment.
