Coronavirus in the United States - news and thoughts

Things are opening up, however the risk is still elevated, in particular for a rebound/new spikes because some things are normalizing. Kinda like trying to squeeze a game in between storms. This is a lesson we learned from past pandemics and our understanding of contagion.

 

It really seems to be extending down the Atlantic coast. Virginia has shown an increase in cases and now NC is showing a rise in cases too. NC was at 1100 cases yesterday and more than 900 today.

 

We can’t stay closed down forever and can’t e-learn forever so we will have to take that risk and move on. Try to wear masks in stores and for sure isolate the sick and elderly.

That is why I’m comfortable with college players getting back at it.

 

On some level this makes sense. The northeast was hit hardest. As people start to move around, often from the north they will travel south, and all it takes is for some portion of those traveling to introduce the virus to others (especially if they're asymptomatic and perhaps of a mindset that makes them a less responsible adult, or a child who can't be responsible for knowing).

I wrote this months ago, but this issue is still about the potential, because it's not fully known. We learned from the 1918 influenza pandemic that second and third waves can be even worse than the initial outbreak. This is no doubt still a consideration of public health authorities.

 

Incredibly consistent. 5.8 - 6 for the last 30 days. One would think this number would come down

 

Mentioned this before but covid testing in wastewater systems is a canary in the coal mine that deserves more attention. Good thing is it is very predictive of pending outbreak, bad thing is it is passing through system and out into effluent. Effluent that is often discharged directly to ocean or other surface waters.

Testing the wastewater in areas with central systems is th best way to truly determine the intensity of the infection in any area and it can be broken down geographically based on area flowing to each plant.

Wastewater testing gains support as early warning for Covid-19 - STAT

What only a month ago had been merely an intriguing laboratory finding about analyzing wastewater to detect the virus that causes Covid-19 has quickly leapt to the threshold of real-world use.

With swab tests still plagued by capacity issues, inaccuracy, and slow turnaround, testing wastewater for the novel coronavirus’ genetic signature could give communities a faster way to spot a rebound in cases — as soon as this fall.

“There is real hope that this can be a sensitive, early warning” if, as officials ease social distancing measures, Covid-19 begins to spread again, said Peter Grevatt, CEO of the nonprofit Water Research Foundation. “Several labs have achieved a proof-of-concept in terms of demonstrating the ability to detect the RNA [genetic material] of the virus in wastewater.” Studies in the U.S. and the Netherlands, among others, have shown you can pick up a signal about a week before the first clinical case.

Grevatt and his colleagues briefed congressional staffers last week on the potential for wastewater analysis to be the canary in the Covid-19 coal mine, and on Wednesday the National Academies’ Water Science and Technology Board hosted a panel discussion on how to build a surveillance network and what additional research is needed to make it work. Water utilities from southeastern Virginia to Portland, Ore., are already conducting the analysis on their own. And by next week, Grevatt’s group will have identified the labs that will participate in a quality control test deemed crucial for rolling out a nationwide effort to analyze wastewater for coronavirus: The foundation will send wastewater samples gathered by several utilities to all participating labs and have them run the analysis, compare results, and agree on best practices.

 

Sewage poses potential COVID-19 transmission risk, experts warn

Earlier this week, it emerged that analysis of sewage in the UK could provide important data on the spread of COVID-19. However, Professor Richard Quilliam's new paper -- published May 6 -- now warns that the sewerage system itself could pose a transmission risk.

Writing in the journal Environment International, Professor Quilliam and colleagues from Stirling's Faculty of Natural Sciences are calling for "an investment of resources" to investigate their concerns.

Professor Quilliam -- who is currently leading a £1.85 million study into the transport of bacteria and viruses in marine environments -- said: "We know that COVID-19 is spread through droplets from coughs and sneezes, or via objects or materials that carry infection. However, it has recently been confirmed that the virus can also be found in human faeces -- up to 33 days after the patient has tested negative for the respiratory symptoms of COVID-19.

"It is not yet known whether the virus can be transmitted via the faecal-oral route, however, we know that viral shedding from the digestive system can last longer than shedding from the respiratory tract. Therefore, this could be an important -- but as yet unquantified -- pathway for increased exposure."

 

Researchers track high levels of COVID-19 in Florida wastewater

TAMPA, Fla. — It’s an overcast, but beautiful Sunday evening near Ben T. Davis Beach along the Courtney Campbell Causeway. People are out enjoying a nice swim and break from the heat. But some researchers now want to know if bodies of water, like Tampa Bay, and others around the state could potentially contain dangerous levels of COVID-19 coronavirus after accidental sewage spills.

“Here in Miami-Dade, they’ve been doing some studies of the saltwater on the beaches to make sure they’re not contaminated,” said Dr. Aileen Marty, an infectious disease expert at Florida International University.
She, and other researchers around the county are keeping a close eye on what happens to Florida’s raw sewage and where it ends up.

“Our wastewater is chock-full of the virus,” said Marty, who has been looking at concentrations of the virus in sewage since Miami-Dade began taking samples in March. Ever since then, scientists have been working to estimate how many people are sick based on the concentration of virus in the wastewater.
...............…..
And while experts agree UV light from the sun can help to kill the virus, that process takes time and doesn’t happen right away. Marty adds COVID-19 has no problem with saltwater and thrives in human blood, which is considered a salty environment.

 

College sports should not be driving the decision for universities at all. Two colleagues in another dept calculated for our president that to safely hold classes in a 50ish seat room while maintaining social distancing, there can only be at most eight students and the professor. We have 23k students at my U. This doesn't also take into account the various places students and faculty congregate such as at student unions, dining halls etc. I am thankful that our president has put safety and mitigation over impulses to simply get back to normal.

 

If we don’t have kids on campus across the country that will decimate in my estimation hundreds of schools. Which then affects the local economies causing even more financial pain. I get the safety first angle but at what cost.

 

It's a terrible cost. And it's painful. I imagine that some small liberal arts colleges will close up completely. I know two already have.

FWIW, I'm a college sports lover--hell, UF's sports factored into my grad school choice...I'm not kidding. I don't want athletics to be decimated either. Not at all. My earlier point was only to suggest that athletics don't come before the core mission of a university.

*For the sake of being up front in case you don't know. I also have some high risk conditions including an autoimmune disorder, so admittedly there is some self-interest in my desires because I have a real fear that if forced back to campus, Ima gonner. It's a terrible feeling too. I am heartened by my president and our faculty senate for protecting us.

One of the ways my U is dealing wit this is to possibly let high risk faculty of any age and those 60 and older to teach all courses online for the time being (meaning starting next spring since we'll be online through the fall), while letting the rest come back. And for students, equipping all classrooms with the ability courses to be streamed from campus so that at risk students can attend in real time. But that is a hefty cost during a time where enrollment and funding might also take a hit, so we'll see.

 

I hope all schools allow people with pre-existing conditions or are afraid to go back to be able to learn remotely. It’s no joke for people with conditions or the elderly

 

Heres what I don’t understand about your perspective, perhaps if we held off just a little longer on the things that are fun but totally unnecessary like college football, we could get to a place where faculty and at risk students dont have to teach/learn remotely. If we forgo some luxuries in the short term, everyone can return safely to campus sooner and experience more important things like an education in person.

 

don’t agree at all. I think the risk is so small as long as they don’t let the elderly or anyone with preexisting conditions near the players. Have them in on campus housing and limit who they come into contact with.

I don’t feel it’s necessary to wait out thru the fall. Just my .02

 

Thanks!

Certainly. I just wanted to make clear that even despite my personal desires, none of us want this online thing to be a thing. But classrooms are confined spaces with many people inches from each other throughout the day so when you think about that across a university campus where at any one time during a day there are thousands in-class, it kind of becomes whoa, how do can we even begin to think this could be safe? And out here, the virus is still spreading at a pretty strong clip, which only adds to the concern about risk.

And we all worry about how this is affecting students and how this will affect the university moving forward. It's a daily conversation with faculty and administration as we move forward.

 

So football on campus is more important than students and professors on campus? You want to bring back football while distancing faculty and students, yet there’s no risk. If contact in close proximity, while exchanging bodily fluids from people that are traveling to and from different parts of the country, was put on hold, faculty would absolutely be safer.