do not know what to make of todays numbers, tuesday is always the highest in new cases and deaths, yet today new cases 22,802, almost 2,000 less than previous 4 tuesdays with almost 50,000 more tests. deaths 1,630, almost 700 less. is this really a continued downward trend, or is it getting slower and slower including weekend numbers, will tomorrow really spike up?
There isn’t much “luck of the draw”, the virus generally hits denser populations first. It spreads faster with dense population and public transit. I think the shitty public transit systems probably helped save lives in south Florida and urban Texas, areas that got hit, but not as bad as they could have. Our big international hubs are NYC, Miami, and LA. LA wasn’t as bad as many expected either (considering the Asian flights going in there, and that they were in the first wave). FL may have benefited by being in the 2nd wave. Desantis hasn’t been crazy like a few of the worst GOP governors, the beach fiasco was bad, after that my impression was mostly that he was s couple of days behind the curve.
According to the CDC, approx 675k deaths occurred in the U.S. due to Spanish Flu - less than 10x the current number of Coronavirus deaths. 1918 Pandemic (H1N1 virus) | Pandemic Influenza (Flu) | CDC
Is that a good or bad thing? Lol. I don’t post enough in too hot to know whos who. I’m usually spouting off in the recruiting board.
Wrong. Utterly weak reasoning. How Florida slowed coronavirus: Everyone stayed home before they were told to
we already rehashed this. In fact someone just above was complaining about how DeSantis did a bad job shutting down the beaches. So which is it? Did people shut it down themselves or was people hitting the beaches non stop?
I believe we're seeing a downward trend, but there's only so far it can go. A lot of it is driven by the reduction in NY numbers. Other places, like FL, TX and GA, are going along at the same pace they've been going, or maybe even increasing a bit. There is no reason for the numbers to go down in these states, especially with social distancing measures being relaxed. If I had to guess, we will settle into 1000-1500 deaths a day for the foreseeable future and end up in the 300k range for the year. I don't see much changing anywhere that would reduce it, unless the virus somehow peters out on its own, which seems to be what Trump is banking on.
wh where are you getting your numbers?i looked on covid19 testing at the 3 states you mentioned, fla,ga,texas, using may4 as a baseline date, when fla reopened, in the 8 days since may 4 here are the total new cases fla-4196, ga-5267, texas 7537.in the 8 days before may 4 the numbers are, fla-5371, ga-5967, texas-7699. I may not be Einstein, but the numbers tell me less new cases since these states re-opened with much more testing, so where is the proof of more new cases since re-opening?
Not luck. The virus spreads through human interactions, so anything that increases it would increase the spread. Blue states, more specifically metropolitan regions, have denser population, more public transit, etc. so are at higher risk. All major metropolitan areas are blue. Even in Texas Harris, Dallas, and Travis counties voted Democrat in the 2016 election. Those 3 regions (Houston, Dallas, and Austin) account for more than half of Texas' GDP. I didn't check but I'm gonna guess those 3 regions account for more than half of Texas' COVID cases as well. NYC metro area, a single metropolitan, has a GDP higher than the entire state of Florida, and more than 75% of the entire state of Texas. COVID hits population centers, where the most economic activity also occurs. The rise and fall of the health and economy of the entire country depend on how these "blue" regions fare, and it has nothing today with how blue they are.
Today Florida had 941 new cases, Texas had 1011, and Georgia had 846. And looking at the last couple of weeks, new cases in the 3 states haven't really changed much -- about the same in FL, a little lower in GA, and a little higher in TX. I count 5026 new cases in FL over the last 8 days, not 4196. Most likely, what we are seeing is what we are going to continue to see. What are the states doing that makes you think the numbers will go down? All 3 are loosing restrictions and people are socializing more.
Here’s a story from yesterday describing some of the complex ways the virus affects the body that we do not fully understand. Doctors treating coronavirus patients are seeing a range of odd and frightening syndromes, including blood clots of all sizes throughout the body, kidney failure, heart inflammation and immune complications. "One thing that is both curious and evolving and frustrating is that this disease is manifesting itself in so many different ways," said Dr. Scott Brakenridge, an assistant professor on the acute care surgery team at the University of Florida College of Medicine. Covid-19 symptoms include blood clots, organ failure - CNN
Don't you have a 10-14 day lag between infection and symptoms? So if people are getting tested when they feel bad it takes that time, but if they are just getting tested at any time then there wouldn't be a lag.
