Coronavirus in the United States - news and thoughts

I wasn't looking at Flu deaths for May since we are only on day 5 of May, I was looking back into Feb/March.
At this point I would expect Flu to be dropping off yes, its unclear to me if we are testing heavy for Flu right now. One way would be to look at sales of Flu test kits and compare to year over year(maybe).

Something that will skew numbers is ER visits are down, often I would see kids with a runny nose and fever with flu, those patients may not be going to the ER for fear of COVID exposure. ER visits are down 30% on avg right now.

 

Yeah it's pretty much gone by May. If you look at flu cases in countries that had earlier COVID outbreak though, you can see that it's waaaay down. Check this out from Hong Kong. Not only was the peak much lower this year during flu season, it literally tanked to zero by February which is typically the height of the flu season.



Subscribe to read | Financial Times

 

IMHE predicts 134500 deaths by august 4, roughly 63000 more than now, about 21000 a month, 700 a day, fwiw.

 

Not the Onion.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...66ef0c-8e1c-11ea-9e23-6914ee410a5f_story.html

 

i guess jeff bezos approves this story,

 

I realize we are only 5 days into May but I figured you were speaking about recently which would include April. One would think that due to the lockdown that normal flu deaths would go down as well.

As far as flu testing it's my knowledge that before they'd test for COVID you'd get the standard flu test with the quick results to rule that out first. I could be way off though. All I know is that normal deaths (which would include the seasonal flu) are way up (at least in NY/NJ) and that's including the presumed and confirmed COVID deaths.

 

You bring up another issue here. I am a clockwork gym goer. Since my gym closed, it forced me to experiment a bit. I am forced to do more cardio than weights right now. More outside sweating etc. I have lost 5 pounds (which wasn't really a goal, but a nice side effect.) and am noticing my muscle tone changing due to the change up in workout routine. I cant wait for the gym to open back up....but lots of new ideas have come from having to create at home workouts. I will likely take some of this back into my normal gym routine. So a nice side effect in all this.

 

Predicting with simple assumptions (e.g. business as usual regardless of deaths) is relatively easy, but I don't see how they can even come close to accurately accounting for summer weather and people's behavior changes.

When using prediction models the assumptions underlying them is extremely important. It's never enough to say this model predicts this, you always have to say it predicts this IF xxx happens.

 

The lockdown killed the flu....
Remember influenza? Stay-at-home order and other coronavirus precautions seem to have halted a bad flu season and ‘probably saved thousands of lives’

The Pandemic Could Actually Be Good News For Future Flu Seasons. Here's How

 

I mentioned earlier that I was tested today. I encourage folks to do it. It was about as easy as it gets. Pulled up, they gave me a bag, with instructions and a cup to spit in. Opened window and gave it back to them. Will have results in no more than 72 hours, did't pay a dime.

I did have my Dr send orders but I know alot of places don't even require that now. This is my issue with folks saying testing is a problem. This isn't 3 weeks ago, I haven't seen any issues with testing recently. I am sure its easier in some places than others but I don't think getting a test is an issue anymore.

 

If everyone took your advice, you would see the problems with testing.....there are no where near enough test kits.

 

Not a problem here as we have two testing sights where you don't need a Dr order (can't imagine they would have those if kits were a problem, but can't speak for other areas/states). I went as I have symptoms (most likely my allergies) but we want to see my grandmother for Mothers day so wanted to be sure.

 

Pence confirms Coronavirus task force may end work

 

My wife mentioned getting tested but I told her if she doesn't have symptoms she should leave the test for someone who does. I would fully support an anti-body test though.

 

Most tests done in FL since this started and only 589 new first time cases. Great news. 2.61% positive test rate for first time cases.

 

Talk about putting the horse before the cart

 

My wife is a nurse and works in the ICU. She can’t get a test unless she has symptoms. Testing is very much still an issue. There is an article from yesterday in Ohio. They’ve got testing. They don’t have as much as they need.

From the article...

Those with mild symptoms and no high-risk conditions would be next on the list, Ohio Department of Health Director Dr. Amy Acton said Monday. "That's the testing we really don’t have enough for yet."

Want a test for COVID-19? They're still not available to most Ohioans with mild symptoms

 

That is odd. My Mother In Law is an ER nurse here in Central FL and they can't work unless they have a test, since they opened up Monday for elective surgeries. Guess different municipalities and states have been better than others at obtaining these kits.