We at least had fake evidence for WMDs in Iraq, now we're too lazy to even release that? What's the point of putting stuff like that out without even a claim of evidence, let alone actual evidence? America isn't the only country where politicians disregard scientists for political gains. I wouldn't conflate the political stance of Australia with the scientific stance. Leaked ‘Five Eyes’ dossier on alleged Chinese coronavirus coverup consistent with US findings, officials say "But there are some exceptions. In particular, Australia believes the virus originated in a wet market, as the Chinese have claimed. However, the U.S. intelligence community has not yet determined this and is still leaning away from that theory."
and if T would have taken the IC reports seriously it could have been reduced substantially. this whole blame china narrative is solely to take the focus off of his failure to take it seriously soon enough
I think you have to look at factors and not raw numbers. A mathematician I am not, so perhaps one can explain this better than I. Using a simple infection rate of 2, Fever's prediction was 6 factors away from the current death total in the U.S. and that number will continue to grown further from Fever's ever-so-flawed prediction. That current death total, otoh, is only four factors away from Bling's prediction, which came with substantial caveats (might . . . if . . . if it gets totally out of control, etc.).
Good piece in the Post about the ineptitude in the White House. https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...9911f4-8b54-11ea-9dfd-990f9dcc71fc_story.html The epidemiological models under review in the White House Situation Room in late March were bracing. In a best-case scenario, they showed the novel coronavirus was likely to kill between 100,000 and 240,000 Americans. President Trump was apprehensive about so much carnage on his watch, yet also impatient to reopen the economy — and he wanted data to justify doing so. So the White House considered its own analysis. A small team led by Kevin Hassett — a former chairman of Trump’s Council of Economic Advisers with no background in infectious diseases — quietly built an econometric model to guide response operations. Many White House aides interpreted the analysis as predicting that the daily death count would peak in mid-April before dropping off substantially, and that there would be far fewer fatalities than initially foreseen, according to six people briefed on it. Although Hassett denied that he ever projected the number of dead, other senior administration officials said his presentations characterized the count as lower than commonly forecast — and that it was embraced inside the West Wing by the president’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, and other powerful aides helping to oversee the government’s pandemic response. It affirmed their own skepticism about the severity of the virus and bolstered their case to shift the focus to the economy, which they firmly believed would determine whether Trump wins a second term.
Crazy to think we can afford to, they are mostly paying full price (and out of state tuition at that).
It was all about building a model with low numbers that Trump could claim he relied on in making q decision it the decision went south. As usual, it is all about Trump and Trump and the GOP staying in power. Which is why we see the suppression of numbers (Florida coroners being told not to release cause of death, etc., everywhere). And, which is why the model was not built by an epidemiologist/virologist. And, why the IG was fired. And why Fauci is not allowed to testify before Congress. And on it goes. Trump has been lying, and continues to lie and suppress information, in, and about, a pandemic.
LMAO......do you really think I am backing Fever in this? It was just a reality check in some of the crazy death numbers that were being thrown out there in the beginning. However, best of luck to you spinning your math factors. By the way we are using Price is Right rules and Trickster and Bling overbid.
From what I have read, which calls into question the wet market, is that there were not any bats in the market at that time.
Not sure why you are being abrasive. You did indeed back Fever's #s in comparison to the others. I meant to mention that I wouldn't include the billion (whoever suggested that) as it seemed outlandish. But if I'm spinning math figures by addressing factor, perhaps you can explain why. The way I see it, Fever was much farther off in order of magnitude than Bling, esp. considering the fact that we're not through this thing.
Again I was ribbing a little. I thought likewise on some of the poorer nations but who knows those that are not famished may have a better immunity through soil based probiotics that have been almost eliminated throughout the industrialized world. India's numbers look way too good to be true.
FYI my thing wasn’t even a prediction, I literally responded only because I thought that guys “Billions” prediction was crazy. I was responding to that prediction. I spitballed some numbers vs population, and said 1 million seemed like a worst case for the U.S. Given the weeks later actual scientific models with zero social distancing ranged from 1-2.2 million, looks like my rough math was actually pretty good. My 100,000,000 global number was obviously way off, who could have guessed the U.S would be the biggest failed state as far as dealing with public health? I would also remind you we are only a couple months in. Most experts seem to think this thing will be sticking around and coming back for another season (hopefully giving us a summer reprieve in between). Hopefully we can keep it under 100K, but if it does come back stronger for a 2nd season and people don’t take it seriously we could very well end up back at the worst case, imo.
From what I have read, which calls into question the wet market, is that there were not any bats in the market at that time.[/QUOTE] The theory is that the virus passed from a bat to another animal first then to a human. The epicenter being Wuhan is too coincidental for me. I would rely on the US IC here. Very confident that they have a good Handle on that lab.
I prefer to stay away from arguing over which numbers are right or wrong. Too early and we all want low numbers. 66,000 deaths in 6 weeks in the US with all the social distancing is a chilling number.
The theory is that the virus passed from a bat to another animal first then to a human. The epicenter being Wuhan is too coincidental for me. I would rely on the US IC here. Very confident that they have a good Handle on that lab.[/QUOTE] Stupid question but how do you show your post and then my post so that you could reply reply to the entire thread?
