Coronavirus in the United States - news and thoughts

Enjoy. I'll be out and about supporting my local economy, while also taking the necessary precautions.

 

Given that the actual case count is possibly 10 times what the confirmed count is, those aren't very good odds. One in 50 people in your town could have it. In normal non-social-distancing circumstances, you would be coming into contact with an infected person on a regular basis. And with an R0 of 2 or more, it would be spreading rapidly.

 

My point? You throw out a percentage of 17.9% as if it was the asymptomatic percent of cases on the cruise ship which in reality was over 50% and they pretty much admitted that they more than likely missed some as well. The best you can do is fire back that you didn't claim it was a study without flaws but no mention of your error of throwing out a 17.9% rate as if it was the asymptomatic rate. You are right about one thing in that the Diamond Princess case is , to date, the best overview of potential effect on the population then you want to dismiss it especially after the 17% number was wrong and didn't fit your narrative anymore.

What I did find interesting was the increasing proportionate number of asymptomatic cases during the quarantine (your 17.9%). Thoughts?

My statement: Up to 98% of all cases are asymptomatic or mild and what is your guess of the number of these people in this group who have been tested?.
Your reply: The problem is the definition of "mild" in this context. Basically, if you aren't hospitalized, you are considered "mild" in that classification.
What does that have to do with my question? I asked you what your thought was of the percentage of that group who had actually been tested.

I do not throw this info out there to squabble over who is right or wrong but to possibly provide some insight that maybe, just maybe, a hell of a lot more people have already been infected than most believe and that is a great thing.

 

And hot sauce.

 

Well said. We will deal with this at least till June 2021. It is mutating pretty rapidly which, in theory, should weaken it going forward.

 

That isn't what the paper said at all. 50% were asymptomatic at the time of test. Then, some got symptoms later (about 32%). That is what that figure is.

I explicitly stated that many asymptomatic have not been tested. I was pointing out that "mild" doesn't mean what it does colloquially and that the figure you utilized was likely misleading.

I don't start analysis from what I want to be true. Regardless, if the R0 is that high, it is not a "great" thing as it means we will likely incur at least 100,000 additional deaths due to this disease with no ability to prevent it prior to herd immunity. I don't consider that great news.

 

Nothing really surprising. There are quite a few states where over 50% of the states COVID-19 deaths are in the nursing homes. To me i am surprised that some nursing homes still have not had a positive case. Florida actually has the 6 largest nursing home population behind NY, CA, TX, PA and OH.

 

Did the guy in Germany touch the salt shaker then his face I assume? I would sure take precautions (mask and sanitizer) when going out to a restaurant and previously being infected (which I was in early March) would be a plus.

 

i am shocked i tell you, shocked that china lied.gotta use a casablanca line when you can.

 

China's media propaganda I do not believe is going to be able to overcome the supposed evidence that is now coming out. Is it just a matter of time before Europe joins in?

 

I think that is very likely (if not absolutely certain) that the majority of those infected are either asymptomatic or have very mild symptoms, based on the few studies that have been done. We just haven't done enough testing of the general population to know exactly what the percentages are.

 

John Roberts at Fox News is reporting that there is confidence from some of the agencies in the IC that this came from a lab.

 

I stand corrected as I hurriedly read through the study and did not take the time to fully comprehend all that was in there. I would add that the possibility is high that a lower median age of those infected would likely produce a higher asymptomatic result.

 

But will Europe take action? That is often the difficult part--getting Europe to take action. They will nod their heads all day long, but do nothing.

 

So, in summary. We still have no clue and we are all still guessing, but we are going to throw this further inflammatory and politically driven headline out there. Nice.
Rather than continuing to focus on how to control/stop the virus, we can now have even more unfounded pissing contests with China. That should be helpful in getting the supplies we need.

 

So NOW we are suppose to believe the IC. especially when FOX says so.