Coronavirus in the United States - news and thoughts

A decent article that explains exactly why South Korea has been able to squash the outbreak for the most part. They have a people who are very willing to be quarantined for the good of others. We are not South Korea.

 

Many Americans are (and always have been) willing and very ready to sacrifice for the betterment of our neighbors. There is a small contingent of people who believe subordinating their immediate desires represents some existential threat to their freedom, and unfortunately we have a POTUS who is stoking that idiocy (liberate Michigan). We are not S. Korea but Americans can sacrifice in times of crisis with leadership and commitment to our country. We are missing the former. Trump keeps calling this "a war". Why not ask for that level of commitment?

 

Because they are idiots (the ones with guns. Peaceful protests are fine). Hillary Clinton was wrong to label Americans generically, but this truly is deplorable behavior. Unfortunately, this selfishness, self righteousness, and aggressiveness has been stoked now for many years.

 

The experts are either being handcuffed on their ability to produce the information or handcuffed on their willingness to produce the information. There is so much knowable information out there that is not being released. Why aren't we unleashing the data miners on the health information that is available to be mined? Instead, we get lots of rumors. In lieu of a competent well thought out plan to restore order, the only alternative is trial by fire (Jax beaches work ok?). I'd rather have that than an overly cautious approach (and this is where risk aversion is extremely relative based on one's life philosophy). I want to push the envelopes one way or the other. I support extreme shutdown for result, and I support opening things up for result. What I don't support are the casual half-hearted stay-home for an indeterminate amount of time type of effort...that, in my opinion, is the WORST choice that we have available to us. We all (as individuals) either are vulnerable or know somebody dear to us that falls in some sort of vulnerable category, we'll take appropriate additional cautions where appropriate. But we need actions that lead to answers, that's the goal, from my perspective.

We know enough not to launch over crowds for obvious reasons. That's an example of completely justified use of restraint. It is entirely possible to arrive at that conclusion with respect to COVID-19, but we have to be willing to mine the data to determine that as the appropriate response. Why hasn't this been done? Even if the answer is still "I don't know" you'd still see a ton of information that points to this. We don't have that today.

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,WESGATORS

 

We should know before people start dying by the hospitalization rates. We already know to expect an increase in case counts (somewhat) because we are increasing our ability to test. People are being able to be tested for less rigid criteria. But I think the number to watch is the hospitalization numbers (these would theoretically peak before the death numbers). I think you pick a significantly high number and express that as the target. Don't make it a mystery, publish it. Give people something to strive for even as we open things up. Let people know that if we don't trend towards this number, we'll open things up more. If we do trend towards this number, we'll lock things down more. It would encourage people to still be clean about things even as we try to open more businesses.

I think among the big picture items, you have some targets in mind: get the kids back in school this Fall, get tourism opened back up by the Fall (at the latest). You try things out in May, it sucks or even just starts to trend upwards, then that justifies a more intense lock down. But we've had the opportunity to try and fail and still take corrective action throughout the summer months. I don't want our first attempt at opening things up to take place in June or July. Let's learn what we can now.

I don't want to make anything up. I want clear targets in mind with hospital loads...again, let communities know what our thresholds are and use that to remind people to still be safe/clean. I think people focus on deaths too much, but this thing is apparently a pain in the butt beyond just being able to kill people.

But I think you have to have your upper and lower limits to determine success or failure in the trial stage (and "success" vs. "failure" are not political terms, they're to help us know what to do next, that's it).

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,WESGATORS

 

SIAP,

death toll may be double published numbers

How accurate is the U.S. COVID-19 death toll? Some experts say it may be short by “tens of thousands.” — ABC News

 

I remember the when the Black Panthers showed up to the capitol building armed in 1967 and Reagan immediately signed a new gun control law. My oh my how times have changed.

 

The humanitarian president.

 

A successful parasite doesn't kill its host.

 

With comparison to the Asian nations I'm familiar with, I respectfully disagree. Americans are amazingly independent. It's great in some ways and awful in others, like the current circumstance we face. The Asian cultures I'm familiar with (esp. Taiwan and China) are very dependent upon the collective. They are much better about acting in the best interests of the group and also taking care of their elders. In comparison, Americans just don't give a shit about others and esp. our elders. It's one reason we are not adept at handling this pandemic. We may be great at reacting, but are not great at preventing.

 

That's quite a generalization.

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Generalization? Sure, but in comparison to our friends in Taiwan and China, it's true. This is just from my experience, but it seems there's some support for it.
7 Cultures Where 'Old' Isn't A Bad Word

How the elderly are treated around the world

How different countries treat the elderly

 

Just gonna put this here since you've been posting numbers. Although not conclusive the comparison provides a visual demonstration of how Covid-19 is not like the flu, even if the number of actual cases & deaths are considerably higher than what we know.

 

I don’t think this is correct. What would most accurately be called it’s life cycle would include infecting a cell, taking it over, and then directing it to produce more viruses. This is something that probably happens millions of times within a single person’s infection.

Also, mutations shouldn’t be thought to weaken the virus. First, mutations happen in individuals, so if one occurs in Idaho, it doesn’t change anything with the viruses in NY, Italy, or China, which are all on their own evolutionary paths. Second, the effects of mutations are varied. Mutations can “helpful” to the virus, “harmful”, or just be neutral.

If a mutation is harmful, we shouldn’t expect it to last, as the virus(es) carrying it shouldn’t reproduce very well. If a mutation is helpful to reproduction, we should see that mutation become more common. This kind of benefit is mostly about infection rate, which is somewhat independent of the virulence of the pathogen. Ironically, a mutation making the virus extremely virulent (eg instant death of the host) would likely be short lived, as dead people usually aren’t great vectors for additional transmission.

From your info, it seems like we’ve so far avoided what would be one of the more troublesome mutations: a second or third strain that is so distinct that exposure to one does not confer immunity to the others. There’s a good chance that this happens later, as is the case with many persistent viruses, like the flu, when most people have become immune to the current version.

 

This whole post has one underlying supposition. That is that we have adequate data and that we are not mining it. Please explain the source (anecdotal or reference) for your conclusion that data mining is not occurring?

I am involved with AI and data analytics Dash the best minds in their country are on this. You are incorrect that we are not mining the data, and the results suggesting caution are the results coming from that data.

The quality of the data is a whole Nother issue. Remember that this is only been going on for three months, and in the US for about six weeks. Adequate quantity, resolution, and accurate data do not yet exist.

 

Having spent much of my life in Asia, I agree. I think that your last sentence is important, and was what I was focusing upon. Yes, Americans are very selfish on a day-to-day basis. However, during crisis Americans have a history of stepping up. as Churchill said, “you can always count on Americans to do the right thing, after they have exhausted every other possibility.“

I was just hoping that if this is indeed “a war“ as our POTUS sad, but he would not undermine our efforts by saying “liberate Michigan.“ Put simply, I do believe in Americans to rally behind a just cause.

 

There are multiple aspects to this: (1) Is the data being collected? (2) Is the data being made available for mining? (3) Is the data that is being made available being processed? (4) Are the results of the processed data being made available?

You are only addressing #3. We can say with certainty that access to the data is being restricted. We have no idea who or what entities are involved with mining this limited-access data or if it is being completely and thoroughly mined at all. And we can know that the processed data that is being made available is insufficient because we can ask questions that should have an answer to them. For example, how do hospitalized patients rate in terms of Vitamin D levels and smoking habits? Whether or not that question is relevant has nothing to do with data mining, as you know from your involvement with AI and data analytics, it isn't a difficult process to compile that information from a given data store. If that question is not relevant, we should be able to easily provide the data that shows that it isn't relevant.

There's a laundry list of questions that have easy answers that could be used to better inform the population of what's going on and why it's going on. My only evidence is that occasional searches for them online turn up very little. But how else can you prove that useful information isn't being produced for public consumption?

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,WESGATORS

 

I can live with the idea that some folks may treat their elderly better, but even in one of the links you posted, China had to enact a law because their situation was getting bad. I just think if you are going to make such an abrasive comment, it should have a little more support. To me it's disrespectful to the Americans who bend over backwards for their parents the way their parents did for them. I mean, what percentage of Americans do you think that sentiment applies to?

There are other things to consider as well. To what extent do parents' action contribute to how they are treated by their children? I wonder how China's former one-child policy has impacted the socio-economics of having the means to properly care for one's elders. How does divorce rate impact the family structure? We also have approximately 3.8% of our population over 80 vs. 1.8% for China (could be related to the US having a higher lifespan...which might also suggest better care for the elderly).

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,WESGATORS