Coronavirus in the United States - news and thoughts

and yet they line up with their plans..smdh...watch Germany and see if they have to do a second shutdown. they are so far ahead of us in contact tracing and testing. If they have to doa second shutdown you know we will. this month is going to be wasted so we can start up again independent of what the protocol set by the science says..but hey, it is the governor's fault. Great thing about abdicating leadership is it is never your fault.

 

It won't be wasted, it's a risk, but it's an opportunity to learn. People that aren't ready to buy in can still minimize their exposure.

Go GATORS!
,WESGATORS

 

going to be interesting in about a week or so to see the data on new cases from states opening up some.

 

It may take 2 weeks due to the time it takes for symptoms to start showing.

 

what happens if numbers ramp up and more people start dying? Steady on the helm or 6 week shutdown next time? If 4 weeks doesn't work are you ready to throw in the towel and let the chips fall where they may? Stop transit from certain hot zones? Make it up when we get there?

 

it will take 2 - 3 weeks to tell as many will not get tested until symptoms are bad. some people will not believe they have it until they are ready for intubation. there is a fear of being infected that discourages many from being tested when symptoms set in.

 

Came across an interesting article about Nextstrain which is an open source scientific community. They have mapped over 3,900 whole genome sequences of COVID-19 to date (back in 2010 they had 11 partial sequences of the H1N1 virus). The takeaway is that COVID-19 has spread far more widely and effectively than previous expert predictions. The good news is that is mutating very quickly and is very likely further along in its life cycle than what has been widely believed.

 

The IMHE model has still only updated its projection to 72,433 deaths through Aug 4. We are at 63,801 as of today, and I think it's likely we will be above 100k by the end of May.

IHME | COVID-19 Projections

 

I’ve tried to remain optimistic, but it not only continues to spread here, but in many of the Western European countries, it doesn’t seem to want to let up either.

 

Good stuff. Your comment caught my eye because I was just reading about nextstrain last night in an Atlantic article.

The researcher(s) consulted for the article seem to think the mutations are steady and that we're basically facing a single threat. Make of it what you will, I can't form any hard opinion on mutations right now.

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The tight group of coronavirologists is now racing to make up for years of absent research—a tall order in the middle of a pandemic. “We’re working as hard as possible,” says Lisa Gralinski, a virologist at the University of North Carolina. “Our space is so intermingled that we can’t socially distance among ourselves much.”

One small mercy, she notes, is that SARS-CoV-2 isn’t changing dramatically. Scientists are tracking its evolution in real time, and despite some hype about the existence of different strains, the virologists I’ve spoken with largely feel that the virus is changing at a steady and predictable pace. There are no signs of “an alarming mutation we need to be worried about,” Gralinski says. For now, the world is facing just one threat. But that threat can manifest in many ways.

 

I ran numbers the other day.(see page 456) currently have the number at 71,000 on Tues. 90,000 by May 26th.

 

hate to say it, but they are way, way off.

 

Yeah, even if the daily average in May runs half of what it was in April, that still puts us in the mid 90s by May 31. And I don't think it will come down by half in May. The new case numbers don't support it. Plus states are loosening restrictions and people are getting restless to go out again. I don't see any reason for there to be a big drop off, unless warmer weather really does affect it.

 

I cannot agree here for two reasons. First, when you are dealing with complex systems and high risk situations, you rely on experts to make their best estimates and then you act to maximize result while minimizing catastrophic risk. You do not "take a flier" to learn when experts are warning otherwise. Second, if we want the economy to recover, the worst thing that can happen is opening and closing again. We would be MUCH better off staying shut for 2-3 more weeks and funding testing/tracing much more heavily.

As an analogy, it is one thing to launch a space shot and risk the lives of three astronauts. It is another to launch over a crowded city and risk the lives of the astronauts and the city below. Everybody wants to get this behind us but anybody with a brain knows that doing this depends on widely available testing, tracing and response, and we are woefully behind on these measures. These are not political questions - but scientific analysis based on complex systems involving spread, resources, control, etc. THAT, not opening bowling alleys because people are protesting (aka Georgia) OR saying "open nothing" because people are overly cautious, should be the immediate, intense focus.

 

Protesters, some armed, spill into Michigan Capitol building demanding end to stay-at-home order

I wish these chuckleheads knew how hard they were making it for the rest of us to promote sane 2A legislation.

 

I have no problem with peaceful protests but why the need to come armed like you're about to start a war?

 

From what I was reading it did sounded as though the mutations were not considered to be an immunity issue but evidence that the virus was in the latter stages of its life cycle. It also allows them to be able to track each strain around the world. With each mutation, in theory, it should weaken. We shall see.

 

Damn, another optimistic post! And it makes sense because the virus can t survive if it mutates to a form that kills

 

Meanwhile, as for how to reopen:
Eye-opening South Korea study on Covid-19

 

Trump gloats about death