Coronavirus in the United States - news and thoughts

Wait. You are referring to the LSU game thread? Gotcha.

To be clear, I meant sheer numbers attending a game. I was not saying that the numbers for wrecks and covid were the same. I simply said that IF they were the same, I would still get on the highway and go to the game. 4 peopel would likely die of Covid based on stats we have from Covid-19, but 4 people do not die in car wrecks each game.

 

As a point of reference, Louisiana has the fifth highest deaths per million amongst the states. If the country was at their rate, we would have 117,000 dead right now.

New York is an outlier, true.

The unknowable is what any of this looks like if everyone was still packing restaurants, subways, planes, buses, stadiums and generally leading normal lives. I imagine we’d have a lot more Louisiana and you’d have far worse problems in New York, Detroit, Chicago etc.

Most of what we are all doing is beating our gums together waiting for a comprehensive testing, tracing and isolation plan that bridges us to better treatment and a vaccine.

The best minds laid out a phased plan. Some governors have said, to heck with the phased plan we are opening up. We’ll see how Georgia and others fare. Even then, it’s hard to get a read because a lot of citizens are staying home in spite of the gubernatorial leadership.

This entire pandemic has too many variables for anyone to plant a flag to firmly in the prediction ground. That I’m certain of if nothing else.

 

Taken out of context without the other posts in the other thread.

 

I seriously have no clue where you are going with any of this. I'll bow out.

 

Not equate - analogize death rate w car crash probability as a consideration of risk factor associated w attending a football game.
Poll: Would you go to a Gator football game vs. LSU if it was tomorrow?

 

we don’t know. But I do know we have 26+ million out of a job, and countless more out of work that haven’t filed yet. We cant stat shut down forever. The loss of life from extreme poverty would far exceed 100k deaths a year if we go into a decade long recession. Open the places that aren’t hot spots and still practice social distancing and see what happens.

 

Well, that graph is not gonna be a happy one.

 

let me dumb it down for you, my point was, you said weekly figures are more accurate than daily, i pointed out how 2 weeks of weekly figures could be mis-reported, thus pointing out weekly figures are just as apt to be wrong as daily ones.

 

You don't need to dumb down anything for me. If anything you need to be more eloquent. I've stated repeatedly that weekly averages are better than daily totals. Not perfect, but better. If you want to overanalyze this then yes, the first week of measuring this would be off by a little bit who cares? They are not going to judge the reopening of the states by looking at the first two weeks. Every single week after the first two will be on equal footing. I'm done talking to you about this. Reply if you want. I don't care.

 

You were 100% right. I made a huge mistake trying to engage him using reason. I won't bother again.

 

But I thought we had the greatest economy in history. We know this to be true because he said so. Trust me, I can tell you that.

 

last thought on this. i am merely trying to say all forms of stats, whether daily, weekly, monthly,quarterly, yearly are all prone to mistakes, to say one is more accurate than the other, imo, is not right.

 

Every time I considered it I thought of the lyrics:
“A wise man told me don't argue with fools. Cause people from a distance can't tell who is who.”
Jay-Z

I think that quote really belongs to Twain, but I’m more of a Jay Z guy myself. Anyways, you don’t need to worry, we can all tell who’s who in this one...

 

hey guys don’t you know? All the numbers are giant overcounts. Its all a liberal conspiracy to keep the economy closed so we can become communists.

 

bernie, is that you?

 

To quote Maynard:

You are darkness
Trying to lull us in, before the havoc begins
Into a dubious state of serenity
Acting all surprised when you're caught in the lie
We know better
It's not unlike you
It's not unlike you
We know your nature

 

looks like testing is ramping up, around 275000 today.

 

We will be at 60,000 deaths by April 30.