Coronavirus in the United States - news and thoughts

Then say “we are still planing to be ready for the fall. That plan will be subject to conditions as we get closer to the start of the semester but are going to make every effort to open campus in time for fall class, etc etc etc”.
The statement as it was almost sounds like they want to be among the protestors outside the State house in East Lansing. And yes, part of my job is to write external statements for my company that go to 100k clients or so, so I always like to tear these statements apart. The first thing you learn is to not write anything that will come back and bite you in a week or month or year. Always couch your language, and/or be specific in what you are promising. And all they can really promise is to try. The first kid who dies and has their family sue because they only offered in person classes or kids felt pressured to come back and someone got sick will mean the end of OU campus life for the year or longer.

 

UF won't have to make an announcement before July. If they do, it will be because things turn significantly better or significantly worse. Other than that, just be patient.

Go GATORS!
,WESGATORS

 

those to can be messed up. if the week ends on sunday, and like pennslyvania yesterday you under report, Monday, the start of a new week gets basically 2 days worth for that new week

 

I...am...ignoring....nothing. The conversation was about the ADDED numbers. That is what I responded too.

...and please explain how one can be dismissive of what turned out to be the case? How can I dismiss info that we did not have yet.
I mean what does that even mean?

My position has moved a bit in the past 6 weeks, based on science and numbers, as info has guided it.

I have spoken highly of my dem governor for shutting us down and keeping NC in the bottom 20 percentile (in a good way) in most metrics.
I have supported social distancing and the shutdown that it requires.
I dismiss any conspiracy theories as pure garbage.
I have also been encouraged by very good news from the antibody testing. (God forbid anyone embrace any science that may have be a little bit positive, right?)

Yet, I somehow "dismissed" the future? Is that your beef? I mean, what exactly are you continuing to press me on? Again, I am still lost as to what your complain is.

Lets do this. I am moving away from this conversation. I am not even 100% sure we are talking about the same thing, or expressing out points very well. I just know that if you think that I am dismissive that deaths may be happening that are not counted, then you are 100% dead wrong.

I don't know how else to say it. Deaths absolutely may be happening that are not being counted. That's WHY the CDC changed the criteria is it not?
ALL I am saying (again) is we should make sure WHEN THIS IS OVER that we get the number right, because for the 100th time, the live one is not.

 

Now WES, you need to learn from my mistake. Posting good news is not permitted by a small group here. Especially if that news happens to be based on antibody testing. Expect to be keyboard flogged very soon.

Just kidding of course and yanking some chains of my friends here.

Agree 100% btw my friend. Very good news.

 

Hey, prepare for the worst...hope for the best. So much of this stuff is out of our hands. It is interesting to see what type of things people cling to, but it will all work itself out in the end. Just another lesson in how little we have control over.

Go GATORS!
,WESGATORS

 

The case fatality rate has been estimated down since the beginning of this pandemic in the U.S. If you looked to reliable sources, that info was available - I think in the .8 - 1.5 range.

 

A swab test, yes. Antibodies, not necessarily. Can have them in the late stages of the disease and after recovery.

 

Wait . . . you're still on the flu? Really?

 

Help me out Wes, if 6% (165,000) have antibodies, what about the other 94%(2.5 million)

 

You assumed that it didn't exist. That is what I mean by dismissive.

Fair enough, but I think you were still making the same mistake by assuming the numbrs were inflated rather than assuming that they were likely inaccurate but without knowledge about the direction of that miss if it even has a systematic direction rather than just random noise.

I've been pretty clear, it appeared like you were claiming the death totals with probables were upwardly biased and I don't think we have evidence to make that sort of a claim.

It is. I am just pointing out that was a good thing from a numbers perspective.

Accuracy is always better. However, I don't think your initial position was just that they missed but rather that they were over-reporting deaths. Sorry if that was not the case.

 

Why would that be good news? If this is true, then the death rate is low, but the spread is going to be almost impossible to control, which means when we re-open, a whole bunch of people will get this and a small percentage will die. However, that means deaths might be at about 10% of the people who will die. Seems like bad news. The optimal spread rate/death rate to keep this thing under control without constant lockdown would seem to have a much lower spread rate than that.

I guess the good news is that we could open because nothing we can do to stop the spread, basically, but it is a whole lot more death incoming if this is fully accurate.

 

Like I said...the middle. Some have said higher and wishful thinkers have said lower. I have quoted the Harvard Dr. that said .66 many times in this thread.

 

Accorrding to the article, 60% is needed for herd immunity. So they have along way to go.

 

Correct. In THAT conversation about the CDC wanting unproven cases included. We can have another conversation about the opposite and I would agree with that too. The mistake is taking my comments about one part of the topic (The CDC wanting numbers added) and taking that as my only opinion on the entire epidemic.

 

That wouldn't matter though since every week would have this same issue.

 

The reason it is a positive figure is that it drops the death rate from 2.6% to 0.16%. That represents not only a significant drop in the death rate, but also a significant drop in the hospitalization rate. Maybe I'm misunderstanding your question.

Go GATORS!
,WESGATORS

 

No. Reread his post and my response. IF we had immunity and a vaccine this would be like the flu. We do not. Thus it is not like the flu at all. I have also said a hundred times that the only reason the numbers are even considered flu-like by some is because of the measures we have taken.

Side note, Are people around here looking for a new righty whipping boy and I am the best they can do tonight?
Well have fun with that. I agree with most of you on most of this.

 

I'm a simple guy, I see 6% with antibodies, that tells me the other 94% of population doesn't have antibodies. Unless I'm reading that wrong?

 

Also don't antibodies mean more plasma that could be used in treatment?

..and I told you they would come for you.