Coronavirus in the United States - news and thoughts

It's hard to say whether it's actually more contagious or it's more deadly. Maybe a little bit a both, or maybe it's just more deadly. The math insists it's definitely at least a few times more deadly than any recent flu season, as even WITH social distancing, and in a short time frame, the number of deaths is already basically a full flu season.

From what I've read/learned about the flu (as well as previous SARS outbreaks), was that they typically only spread WITH symptoms and a person is typically only contagious for a few days. With that in mind, it's pretty easy to stop those outbreaks where we really tried too (like with Swine Flu and H1N1 and even the extremely deadly MERS). The strategy is to stay the heck away from people showing symptoms! That's all you really have to do. This thing has the insidious nature where it spreads asymptomatically, so you have no idea if you are already spreading it or if you are contacting someone that is spreading it to you. Not sure that is the same thing as being "more contagious" than the FLU or these other corona-viruses, but i guess the net effect is the same, asymptomatic spread allowed it to get a foothold rapidly and undetected.

 

I think they are working on it.

Most state reports and dashboards (such as Texas, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Missouri, etc.) lag behind or show incomplete data with respect to the data shown by individual counties on their official websites and dashboards, which is what we collecte and aggregate when possible to show the most updated and accurate number in the table below. We will soon publish state-level pages with graphs and the breakdown by county.

 

If they tested those 80,000 like there doing COVID then it's flawed. They've already confirmed that rural communities are not testing all that have died , so people that have died with symptoms like Covid, they're listing it as Covid that's very flawed

 

Your argument is essentially that two wrongs must make Pelosi right. She clearly has plenty of access to intel and the Chinatown visit was in response to Trump's China travel ban. So it stands to reason she at the very least shown have known there was a risk if anyone had recently flown to China and yet she invites people to Chinatown. Where are you more likely to encounter someone who has recently visited China? At a Trump rally or in Chinatown? Please, just stop embarrassing yourself with this crap.

 

Neither are tests required to confirm flu deaths. They model them.

 

Human trials already happening soon. This is going to be fascinating and amazing to watch, it’s a science race unlike anything in human history.

Oxford University coronavirus vaccine to begin human trials on Thursday as UK throws everything at vital breakthrough - MarketWatch

 

Flu season deaths top 80,000 last year, CDC says - CNN

An estimated 80,000 Americans died of flu and its complications last winter, according to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. This means it was the deadliest season in more than four decades

 

That's why these models are flawed, like I've been stating

 

The flu models?

 

So Trump was wrong? Thanks for admitting it. Although, I know you will now walk it back...

Trump supporters never travel overseas? Interesting. Remember, there were outbreaks in quite a few countries by March 2.

BTW, Chinatown has actually mostly held this at bay. Their hospital is actually taking patients from other hospitals because of a lack of cases. They were out in front of this. Amazing what competent leadership can do...

How San Francisco’s Chinatown Got Ahead of the Coronavirus

So I guess your point is that Pelosi was wrong to suggest that you could still visit one of the safest places in the country. Good call. Fits with your record of accuracy on this.

 

'Chinatown is not part of China': Trump's tweet at Pelosi is met with criticism online

 

Well I would assume if they test the same way than yes

 

I really don't think any of us that don't work in the field as doctors or the CDC & disease modeling should have an opinion on this. I do know one way for us laymen to judge is to look at normal deaths over this time frame vs. actual deaths.

 

And sometimes I think there are people on this board who would throw the dice and risking thousands of lives if they thought that ending social distancing restrictions would help the economy. Being even more cynical there is at least one politician who would put thousands if not hundreds of thousands of lives at risk if he thought it would enhance of his chance of being reelected.

 

What is measured accurately? There's almost always inaccuracies in measures. The important question is are the inaccuracies material? Would/should we be doing anything different if the numbers are off by say 5% or 10%?

 

Why do you think they're listing them as covid-19 related?

And what do you think should happen?

 

Ironically, some of these same people will spout off trade deficit numbers. Try to find out how those are measured. One of the worst measures EVER whether it is accurate or not is irrelevant. It is a terrible measure.

 

to paraphrase buzz lightyear, to 500 pages, and beyond