Coronavirus in the United States - news and thoughts

philnotfil · Apr 22, 2020

chemgator said: ↑

Interesting news that you knew was coming, but not this quickly: parents are giving up on educating their children after three weeks.

"I just can't do this." Harried parents forgo home school

What about college professors? They should be the last to have problems teaching their own kids, right?

Ahh, the fetal position advanced lecture technique. Very modern education. Carry on!
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The teachers' unions are already planning their raise requests when the schools open up, they know all the parents will be quick to say yes this time.

tilly · Apr 22, 2020

mutz87 said: ↑

Autopsies find first U.S. coronavirus death occurred in early February, weeks earlier than previously thought

At least two people who died in early and mid-February had contracted the novel coronavirus, health officials in California said on Tuesday, signaling that the virus may have spread — and claimed lives — in the United States weeks earlier than previously thought.

Tissue samples taken from two individuals who died in Santa Clara County, Calif., tested positive for the virus, local health officials said in a statement. One of the victims died on Feb. 6, and the other died on Feb. 17.
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Man, makes me think about the illness my daughter and I had in Feb. How about you @dutchen?

96Gatorcise · Apr 22, 2020

tilly said: ↑

I get all that...but all these doctors did not unilaterally decide overnight at the same time to do this. My understanding was the determination in NY was to lump unknown COD into the pile. This the 4k jump the other day. Doctors had determined pneumonia as the COD but that determination was changed.
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that was a decision made by the CDC not NY. A position paper was put out 4/5 and then implimented on 4/14

Changes in US Data following new CDC guidelines on "Case" and "Death" definition (April 14, 2020) - Worldometer

96Gatorcise · Apr 22, 2020

Barr Threatens to Sue States That Don’t Open When Trump Says

OklahomaGator · Apr 22, 2020

Updated stats from this morning from world o meter at 9 am edt. 4 states with 0 deaths and 8 states with just 1 or 2 deaths.

philnotfil · Apr 22, 2020

President Trump’s signature hotel in the nation’s capital wants a break on the terms of its lease. The landlord determining the fate of the request is Mr. Trump’s own administration.
Trump International Hotel, just a few blocks from the White House, had been a favored gathering place for lobbyists, foreign dignitaries and others hoping to score points with the president. But like most hotels, it is now nearly empty and looking to cut costs because of the coronavirus pandemic.
In recent weeks, the president’s family business has inquired about changing its lease payments, according to people familiar with the matter, which the federal government has reported amount to nearly $268,000 per month.
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Trump (the Company) Asks Trump (the Administration) for Hotel Relief

philnotfil · Apr 22, 2020

We study the effects of news coverage of the novel coronavirus by the two most widely-viewed cable news shows in the United States — Hannity and Tucker Carlson Tonight, both on Fox News — on viewers’ behavior and downstream health outcomes. Carlson warned viewers about the threat posed by the coronavirus from early February, while Hannity originally dismissed the risks associated with the virus before gradually adjusting his position starting late February. We first validate these differences in content with independent coding of show transcripts. In line with the differences in content, we present novel survey evidence that Hannity’s viewers changed behavior in response to the virus later than other Fox News viewers, while Carlson’s viewers changed behavior earlier. We then turn to the effects on the pandemic itself, examining health outcomes across counties. First, we document that greater viewership of Hannity relative to Tucker Carlson Tonight is strongly associated with a greater number of COVID-19 cases and deaths in the early stages of the pandemic. The relationship is stable across an expansive set of robustness tests. To better identify the effect of differential viewership of the two shows, we employ a novel instrumental variable strategy exploiting variation in when shows are broadcast in relation to local sunset times. These estimates also show that greater exposure to Hannity relative to Tucker Carlson Tonight is associated with a greater number of county-level cases and deaths. Furthermore, the results suggest that in mid-March, after Hannity’s shift in tone, the diverging trajectories on COVID-19 cases begin to revert. We provide additional evidence consistent with misinformation being an important mechanism driving the effects in the data. While our findings cannot yet speak to long-term effects, they indicate that provision of misinformation in the early stages of a pandemic can have important consequences for how a disease ultimately affects the population.
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Misinformation During a Pandemic (PDF warning)

oragator1 · Apr 22, 2020

flgator2 said: ↑

Completely disagree with you, the states should have never been shut to begin with. People who tend to think like you should stay in your home with the doors locked. Like I've state many times this is like the flu, when they start putting the correct numbers you and others will see this was a huge overaction. If I'm wrong I'll admit it, but all the new studies coming out are starting to show other wise. Which is good for our country.
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the numbers are already in. NYC averages 2000 flu deaths a year, they have 9.5k confirmed covid deaths and another 4.5k probable ones. And that’s with a near total lockdown. Their death rate including the probables is .17 percent with who knows how many more still to pass away and only who knows what percent of the city actually infected. a flu season would be around .025 percent all in.
It is beyond baffling to me that the word flu is still uttered by anyone in the same sentence as Covid, other than “it’s not that”.
Can we have reasonable discussions about what we can open and what we can’t? Whether rural and urban might be able to be tested and treated a bit differently? Absolutely, but it should start from the right starting point. This thing is real.

OaktownGator · Apr 22, 2020

96Gatorcise said: ↑

Barr Threatens to Sue States That Don’t Open When Trump Says
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Trump's personal attorney at work.

gatorpa · Apr 22, 2020

dingyibvs said: ↑

No, no, no, no, no, no, I think a little stats lesson is due.

1) They don't cancel each other out except for very specific circumstances. For example, let's say a disease has 10% prevalence, and you run a test with 90% sensitivity and specificity. You'll have 9% (10% of 90%) of the population with false positives, and 1% (10% of 10%) with false negatives. 9% does not cancel out 1%, agreed?

2) They depend on the accuracy of the test AND the prevalence of the disease. For example, if you have a disease with 0% prevalence, then any positive result is a false positive, resulting in a false positive rate of 100%. You run the same test on a population with 100% prevalence, then any positive result would be true, resulting in a false positive rate of 0%.

In stats, only sensitivity (chance of testing positive when you do have the disease) and specificity (chance of testing negative when you don't have the disease) are measurements of accuracy of a test. False positives and false negatives are not because of their dependence on the prevalence of the disease. That's why the rapid HIV test which has a 99% accuracy (both sensitivity and specificity) have a 50% false positive rate.
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TY

You may have missed my post about having College Stats 25 years ago.... even though I did get an A then...
But my crow eating is noted here again.

duchen · Apr 22, 2020

chemgator said: ↑

We don't know who supported it or who opposed it. Trump should be innocent until proven guilty. I'll wait until I hear some information from the CDC that they lobbied to get the German test and Trump denied them. If Trump really did shoot that idea down, it is almost unheard of in this day and age that no one in the CDC would have either spoken up directly (and risked losing their jobs) or made an off-the-record statement to the media (who would have gone nuts with this revelation). The fact that there has been no such statement forthcoming after several months (and I'm sure the CDC is at least 50% liberal) tells me that someone in the CDC made the call that they could do without the German tests. Either Trump went along with that, or he wasn't informed. A lot of generals have resigned based on disagreements with Trump's philosophies.

I don't doubt that there were some things that Trump stuck his nose in and messed things up. I'll wait for someone to speak up and tell me what those things were before I blame Trump for them. So far, the CDC has a proven record of gross incompetence, so it is far more likely that the CDC screwed up and Trump has been covering for them (much like GWB covered for the FBI after 9-11).
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Innocent until proven guilty? What a low standard for leadership.

96Gatorcise · Apr 22, 2020

oragator1 said: ↑

the numbers are already in. NYC averages 2000 flu deaths a year, they have 9.5k confirmed covid deaths and another 4.5k probable ones. And that’s with a near total lockdown. Their death rate including the probables is .17 percent with who knows how many more still to pass away and only who knows what percent of the city actually infected. a flu season would be around .025 percent all in.
It is beyond baffling to me that the word flu is still uttered by anyone in the same sentence as Covid, other than “it’s not that”.
Can we have reasonable discussions about what we can open and what we can’t? Whether rural and urban might be able to be tested a bit differently? Absolutely, but it should start from the right starting point. This thing is real.
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It's being willfully ignorant

oragator1 · Apr 22, 2020

Great post from a doctor in one of the A&M forums. Further “this isn’t the flu” evidence.

I just declared my 100th COVID19 patient deceased... | TexAgs

G8trGr8t · Apr 22, 2020

OklahomaGator said: ↑

Updated stats from this morning from world o meter at 9 am edt. 4 states with 0 deaths and 8 states with just 1 or 2 deaths.

View attachment 51724 View attachment 51725
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Deaths per reported case continue to trend up. Not good

gatorpa · Apr 22, 2020

duchen said: ↑

How many people would have died then? Support your idea with facts and numbers.

You do realize that the virus is brought into (for example) nursing homes by those who catch it. So, by requiring only the most vulnerable to stay home, you would have had a minimal effect. Because, generally, somebody would care for them.
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It's hard to say, the large impact on those who won't die is being measured now so we will see.
And yes nursing homes are still clusters even with the lock down, someone has to care for them regardless. Our county has a small spike because one nursing home has already sent 14 people to hospital with it and 3/10 ten county deaths are from one nursing home. Sadly this particular home refused to let the Doctors who care for these patients to test for it early on..... criminal IMHO.

Requiring the high risk to stay home would have a bigger effect than what your are saying because the vast majority of high risk don't live in nursing homes.

96Gatorcise · Apr 22, 2020

oragator1 said: ↑

Great post from a doctor in one of the A&M forums. Further “this isn’t the flu” evidence.

I just declared my 100th COVID19 patient deceased... | TexAgs
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that doc has some interesting insights from the front line concerning treatment. Thanks for posting.

duchen · Apr 22, 2020

tilly said: ↑

Man, makes me think about the illness my daughter and I had in Feb. How about you @dutchen?
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Me 2. I was sick in January and my doctor had the same thing 2 weeks later. But, I tested negative for antibodies on April 6. So, either antibodies are short lived or I didn’t have it. And, I have had a respiratory illness for 3 or so weeks now and am waiting for the results of a swab test. Meanwhile, your daughter should get an antibody test. Those folks who died in early February would have been ill in January so the timing is there

14serenoa · Apr 22, 2020

96Gatorcise said: ↑

Barr Threatens to Sue States That Don’t Open When Trump Says
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sounds like a SCOTUS review down the road...

swampbabe · Apr 22, 2020

philnotfil said: ↑

The teachers' unions are already planning their raise requests when the schools open up, they know all the parents will be quick to say yes this time.
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No, not really. We all know there will be no raises.

My county passed a half penny sales tax four years ago for renovations and security (could not be used for teacher salaries) and it is up for renewal this November and all indications are that it will not be put on the ballot.

jeffbrig · Apr 22, 2020

tilly said: ↑

I get all that...but all these doctors did not unilaterally decide overnight at the same time to do this. My understanding was the determination in NY was to lump unknown COD into the pile. This the 4k jump the other day. Doctors had determined pneumonia as the COD but that determination was changed.
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Not quite.

COD was not changed....reporting guidance changed.

This is from the CDC:
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvss/vsrg/vsrg03-508.pdf

In cases where a definite diagnosis of COVID–19 cannot be made, but it is suspected or likely (e.g., the circumstances are compelling within a reasonable degree of certainty), it is acceptable to report COVID–19 on a death certificate as “probable” or “presumed.” In these instances, certifiers should use their best clinical judgement in determining if a COVID–19 infection was likely. However, please note that testing for COVID–19 should be conducted whenever possible.
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Resulting in this statement on worldometer:

April 14
New York City today has reported 3,778 additional deaths that have occurred since March 11 and have been classified as "probable," defined as follows: “decedent [...] had no known positive laboratory test for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) but the death certificate lists as a cause of death “COVID-19” or an equivalent" (source). We will add these to the New York State total as soon as it is determined whether the historical distribution can be obtained
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All that changed was CDC guidance allowed previously suspected COVID-19 deaths to be included in the reporting.

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