I see the numbers posted in the tweet, but the logic of what those numbers is supposed to represent eludes me. Do you know what article they're referencing? Without seeing the science to back it up, this feels like someone trying to stand out. I don't take everything I read on Twitter at face value.
If the early results of antibody testing in Santa Clara prove true...we are going to have a very low death rate and a lot to reconsider.
Governor Inslee not pulling any punches. Inslee statement on Trump encouraging illegal and dangerous acts | Governor Jay Inslee The whole thing is worth reading.
It's in the next post, there's a link to the PDF. Also, with respect, you literally asked: I'm in no position to criticize the man's expertise, he seems legit, and he certainly appears to be saying everything with a straight face. Go GATORS! ,WESGATORS
The Stanford guy's seems to be out on a limb - if this is the same one that popped up last week. Thanks for the links, I'm checking them out now. I'm not compared the death rate of cases with outcomes (which makes little sense while the pandemic is still underway). I'm compared deaths to the total number of cases, in-progress and resolved. The death rate goes down when number of cases increases faster than deaths. Positive outcomes are already being reflected in the total case count.
Just a point of information "Dr" Phil is a clinical psychologist not a physician and certainly not an epidemiologist, virologist or public health specialist.
Don't get me wrong, if we really have 8x the confirmed number of cases, that would be great, as deaths and hospitalizations would be a far lower percentage than what most are acknowledging. Also means we're that much further along the march to herd immunity. I need to go read these links... I'm skeptical that we have enough randomized testing data to draw these conclusions, but I would LOVE to be wrong on this.
Most intelligent folks know this. One the same note Dr. Oz long ago jumped the shark from actual medicine to pseudoscience for views.
China had to re-shutdown a city after the virus began circulating again. How long till this happens here? Chinese County Back Under Lockdown After Coronavirus Cases Re-Emerge
He says it was this one. And the antibody test being given here is for the COVID 19 antibody. I had one April 6.
If there are herd immunities from this (antibodies that last), this would have some good news. Makes the spread stealthier, but we can get passed it faster. But, taming temperatures at the office might not work.
I have a hard time reconciling this with the numbers from other places. This would give Santa Clara county a fatality rate of 0.09% Lombardy, Italy has about 10 million residents, and 11,608 covid19 fatalities. If every single person in the province had the virus, the fatality rate would be 0.12%. Madrid, Spain has about 6.6 million residents, and 7000 covid19 fatalities. If every single person in the province had the virus, the fatality rate would be 0.11%. I don't think every person in those places has the virus. So either the numbers in Santa Clara are wrong, or the virus is behaving differently there. More research is needed.
Ok, first massive problem with this article... So they tested 3300 volunteers, and found 80-140 additional infected people. What's the accuracy of the test? Does it generate some false postives? False negatives? They're getting a small number of hits, and then they're applying that ratio to the broad population to draw conclusions. Also, was this a valid random sampling of the population? Ok, so it was an ad-driven, opt-in, self-selected test set. Not in any way random. The most likely people to WANT be tested would be people who had some sort of mild symptoms but never had a nasal swab test. You have to randomize the population being tested to draw the types of conclusions they're trying to make. The Univ of Miami study is doing this by cold calling people randomly distributed across the county.
note that there is a direct relationship between the death rate and the strain on the healthcare system. A death rate with 1 million cases isn't nearly as high as a death rate with 100 million cases as the lower the case load, the more effective the medical care at preventing death. Overload the system and the death rate goes much higher. with 35k dead and a 1% death rate you would be assuming 3.5M cases or roughly 6x what has been reported. Do you think only 1 in 6 cases have been tested and confirmed? Herd immunity requires north of 60% infection, that is 1.98M deaths with a 1% mortality rate and a population of 330M. Do you agree with that math? Is a 1% death rate for 60% of the US population okay?
At the current rate of daily death, there will be 45,000-55,000 deaths by the end of the month. That would be 60 days from the first death or 1/3rd of a flu season. Nothing to reconsider.
