As others noted, the 2.2 million is if we did nothing. And we've done a lot more than social distancing. We've shut down the majority of the country.
I think we're gonna end up with at least 150k deaths for the year. The official projections are now way low.
I really would not tempt fate. This thing is far from over & I'd sure put some probability on 2.2m. As gators I'd think we'd be more cautious given the empirical evidence of premature chompulation.
OMG! Warning, you may not want to read on. what if it turns out that you can get it over & over & the odds of it killing you increase each time? & we can't find a vaccine maybe due to mutation. What would our future look like then?
not here in Gainesville, so many businesses are considered essential is almost business as usual,lines to get into publix,etc, not a great deal of sheltering in place going on.
It was 2.2 million WITHOUT social distancing. But, why don’t you apply your expertise to the growth rate in post 7070. First assume the overreaction you are complaining about. Then, take the growth rate. The assume a continued growth rate until a herd immunity. Calculate the additional deaths when the medical system was overrun. What is the number then? And post a link. Or your calculations. Let’s have some facts to support your opinion.
I would say closing a campus of 40ish thousand students was a pretty big step. Also consider of so many people are in line at Publix during the day, during the week, they aren’t at work. Why aren’t they at work? Probably because many business were shut down.
Aren’t there lines to get into Publix because Publix is limiting the number of people who can be in the store? When have you ever seen that before, in Gainesville or anywhere else. Interestingly, I was in a Publix in Atlanta yesterday and each aisle is now one way, so carts don’t cross each other. Hadn’t seen it like that before and when I unknowingly went the wrong way up an aisle a Publix employee who saw me do it turned me around in about 5 seconds.
Traffic has picked up a little bit. You could almost play a game of wiffle ball on University Avenue with just taking breaks in the game for cars to go by a couple of weeks ago. But I don't see much open in the way of businesses. Take a drive down University Avenue this evening and see how it compares to a normal mid-April Friday night. Is it good enough? Could more be done? Time will tell. This is an area where leadership (at all levels really) could do a better job of letting the people know everything from what is working, what are the goals (specifically), encouraging people to participate, reiterating the positive effects of the efforts. It's just not good enough to keep people in the dark, telling them, essentially "just do it, we'll tell you when to come out/start up again." People have a lot of questions, and while there are a lot of unknowns, there is MUCH, MUCH more that governments could be doing to inform the people. Add some PSAs from people who are going through it. Why not tell us more data about the nature of the people who are hospitalized and what risk factors they have that elevated their situation (or perhaps that they didn't appear to have any)? Go GATORS! ,WESGATORS
Updated sheet as of 8 am edt this morning. 5 states with 1-2 deaths and 5 states with 0 deaths yesterday.
I have no idea. I didn’t write the business insider headline. But you knew that. So let me ask you something? Whether they were paid yet or not, why in the midst of the worst pandemic in the US in over a century would we even award a contract to a bankrupt company with no employees or history of mask making to make PPE while thousands of people are dying every day? How does that make the remotest bit of sense during a national crises?
The projections are dropping based on the math. The death rate is much lower than feared. A couple experts have recently cited <1% death rate. Couple that with the isolation efforts and the projections have dropped. Why is it we only except the science when the science has bad news, but not when the updated science brings us improved news?
Hopefully, The US Pandemic Task Force, with Pence and Drs Fauci and Brix will in fact support the Governors and states adherence to the guidelines...the TF must provide all needed tests for governors to distribute. When 'new cases' begin to occur a state must move back to a previous phase of the guidelines. The phase 'concept' is reasonable, but only if closely monitored and enforced by the TF. Comprehensive testing is the key mitigation tool going forward.
Not to derail this thread but,,,,,,, I think I just heard George Bush day,,,,, “thank God for Donald Trump” I wonder what he meant?
Agreed. I don’t think this is really updated science, but straight math. We are at about 35k deaths today, including 4,000+ deaths yesterday. Assume death levels peak soon like the number of infected seems to be doing now (there’s about a two week lag, so long as it’s not due to under testing) and the average daily deaths for the next 30 days is 3000-3500 deaths per day on average. That’s 100-110k additional deaths on top of the 35k now and voila, you’re at near 150k. one wildcard is rural America where numbers are growing and some smaller cities in places like South Dakota and Nebraska have infection rates higher than Detroit but no protective measures in place and limited health care.
