Coronavirus in the United States - news and thoughts

Not always quite that bad but it can def look gnarly on trash pick up day even during normal times.

 

Rats becoming a problem in New Orleans as people empty restaurants, streets
New Orleans too
video of rats running the streets in packs at the link

 

Hate to quibble, but it's not just a *guess* But yes, it will take awhile to come up with estimates. Those estimates being based on combing through all the data and modeling the numbers for a 95% CI. It's how the CDC and other researchers do it for the flu.

 

But your calculations require a baseline and do not allow for the virus, having no limitations on how many it infects daily versus the amount that actually would die, to explain the numbers.
You are using calculative analogy when I question how it is even possible that an unleashed virus can manage to kill at a similar rate for 10 days straight. I could understand it if the amount of daily infections remained constant or capped but the fact is that there is no possible way these numbers can be real without a controlled set of factor.
The virus is unrestrained. The numbers of infected gets larger.

I will get off my curiosity by saying that unless the daily rate is a forecasted rate or the numbers are being drawn out as to avoid fear of or overconfidence (high vs low or vice versa) then the only way to have real deaths rising without major anomalies is to control the number of dying.
Death by guns calculations have both real and average numbers. Shootings are random and without controlled factors and you will see the numbers rise and fall incredibly each day. So how can the virus be a consistent killer and avoid extremes?

 

That’s crazy. I think I had 97,000 pax ahead of me at tsa in ATL on a flight last year.

 

For one thing, our suppression efforts constrain it from growing unencumbered. The whole flattening the curve thingy in the news lately.

I've provided one possibility for your observation but you seem indifferent.

Demonstrates a lot that when you don't understand some facts, you choose to deny those facts as manipulated vs striving to understand. I'm not sure if that's more lazy or paranoid.

I can draw a parallel to flat earthers. They cannot understand how the earth is round when the horizon is flat. When told of facts and experiments that prove it, they shriek "CONSPIRACY". Or climate deniers when presented sea level data.

 

I will try to explain the idea of the law of large numbers mathematically again, but no, it requires no baseline.

You have a disease. It spreads at a rate that is itself a random walk process. So you have one person with the virus and they may spread it to 0, 1, 2, 3, etc. people today with certain probabilities of each of those events occurring. Then, 1, 2, 3 weeks later, with certain additional probabilities attached, there is a probability of a death for each person that spread the disease. So, just for illustrative purposes, let's say that there is a 20% probability of spread to 1 person today and then if it does spread that person has a 1% probability to die in 2 weeks. That means the expected deaths increased by 0.002. Now over let's say a sample of 2,000, that means an expectation of 4 deaths. However, with that relatively small sample size, you have a lot of potential error. Now, let's take 10,000 similar samples of 2,000 (so a total of 20,000,000 people). That would mean an expected death of 40,000. The error for the 4 death expectation would be quite large, and we may have days with 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12...etc. deaths. The expectation of 40,000 deaths will have relatively less error.

The law of large numbers suggest that if this random process happens continuously, the error rate around the expected death rate will shrink. The nesting of probabilities doesn't negate this fact.

So now let's bring it to the real world: we have 3,000 counties having somewhat independent curves (not fully independent, but enough that the dependence shouldn't change this fact). So there is a random disease growth rate and then a nested random death rate. So over a small number of curves, there will be substantial variance. However, as you go through the random process thousands of times, you will see that the total results begin to converge on the expected amount given the overall disease spread rate and death rate. As such, you end up with a pretty consistent growth rate based upon the expectations of the many random walk processes.

 

Can I safely assume the UK has less blacks and latino's too?

 

Hmmmm ..... good question. I’ve been watching quite a few British police/detective “who done it” shows on Netflix and I’ve seen quite a few African-English (?) people, but not many Hispanic-Brits. Still have to use the subtitles feature as they are difficult to understand, even while speaking what’s supposed to be the English language. Wonder if Brits need subtitles when watching an US movie or TV series?

 

What if its more like a zombie / vampire movie? The shooter hits 100 targets, and the vast majority of them take out their rifles and shoot 100 more targets. Of course, as time goes by, some of the targets realize that they are being called targets and start wearing bulletproof vests. All the while, the people counting the shooters and the targets are getting exhausted and confused, slipping in all the blood from the shootings, and not sure if they will become a target or a shooter at any moment. Can you really blame them if they smooth over an anomaly or two? They are probably too busy stocking up on toilet paper (to soak up all the blood) and ammunition.

 

CDC Emerging Infectious Disease Journal: According to Chinese researchers, Coronavirus can travel in air up to 13 feet.

*Note, this and other early studies lack some controls of experiment. Still interesting and a bit disconcerting.

 

Another profiteer--this one a NYC pharmacist--selling N95 masks by the thousands for $15 each.

Undercover sting targets NYC pharmacist allegedly hoarding coronavirus masks

Apparently, the U.S. has an investigative unit called Homeland Security Investigations (HSI). Apparently, the FBI cannot be trusted to carry out this kind of investigation. Obviously, if you want to be a serious federal government department, you need to have a group that does its own investigations.

 

We may be getting some new recommendations on social distancing. Six feet apart may not be enough. Research is indicating that the virus can travel up to 13 feet. The possible good news is that exposure to such small quantities of virus may not lead to infection.

Coronavirus found in air samples up to 13 feet from patients

One might wonder if exposure to such small quantities of virus does not lead to infection, does it lead to any kind of immunity?

 

That's interesting. I've worked with HSI in the past. They're affiliated with ICE and usually doing the high-level investigations related to transnational crime. They have broad authority and might have carried out this investigation because it was their informant.

 

Fauci confirms New York Times report Trump rebuffed social distancing advice

 

Yep, was watching that earlier; basically put a couple of hundred pages of argument and debate to rest.

 

Did you see the study from the netherlands on runners and bike riders? I posted it somehere.

 

I saw it. Don't remember the exact numbers, but it was something like 15 ft for runners, 35 ft for slow bikers and 55ft for fast bikers. That made me all . . . as the wife and I take daily walks and there's little chance of maintaining any of these distances on the street in our neighborhood.

 

Me 2. I no longer go on the route that draws the bikes and runners

 

This is my shocked face