Coronavirus in the United States - news and thoughts

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I guess you missed the whole flattening the curve exercise. Without pandemic responses, the death curve would have a high derivative going to peak, so you should see escalating deaths by day. If the curve is flattened through suppression measures, you should see that uptick derivative lowered and a more consistent daily death rate. Even so, the day to day counts will vary based on reporting inconsistencies (see France and nursing homes), syncopated outbreaks and hospital capacity overloads.

Read this a while back...

The Promising Math Behind ‘Flattening the Curve’

 

First, the trend isn't really that consistent. There have been daily count decreases followed by large increases. However, the reason that we aren't seeing much larger variation of national numbers is because of the reason river pointed out. A statistician would refer to this as the Law of Large Numbers.

Law of large numbers - Wikipedia

 

Yeh, I found the report on droplets in slip streams trailing walkers, runners, and cyclists tend to hang around longer in high humidity. I guess that’s due to the droplets evaporating more quickly in dry environments. Definitely not a positive for ant hot, humid environment.

 

it will be interesting to see how quickly demand for commercial air travel rebounds to pre-CV19 levels, if it does. I wonder if people, especially those seems as high-risk for the effects of the coronavirus, choose not to travel as much. And, I pray that businesses learn from this pandemic that in-person meetings, especially large meeting conferences, and conversations, aren’t quite the necessity one believed. Teleconferencing and telecommuting should become the rule.

Read an article about Bowing and it’s ability to survive the current environment without federal bailouts in some form that indicated many if not most of their product deliveries are being flown directly into storage.

If left to their own destinies without federal government intervention many airline will “fail” into restructuring and liquidation from which new airlines will eventually rise. Hew, maybe there will be a tool up of distressed assets into a reconstituted Pan Am and Eastern.

 

Looks like Rasmussen's adjusted approval rating still far below their peers.

 

[/QUOTE no,they reset at 8pm, 0000 GMT

 

I thought the Presidents’s morning news conference was informative and uplifting. That would be President Cuomo.

 

maybe I am wrong, but I believe the worldometer numbers are from the previous day. right now, at 1200 they report 758 new deaths in ny, at 2000 they switch over, looking to see if that 758 increases in 8 hours,people do not just stop dying for 8 hours.

 

Weekend reporting is always weird. I'm not sure why.

 

Yes..lol...that is what I meant. I had the 4hr difference in my head. 8pm.

 

this is how the streets of NYC have always looked on trash days

 

Ben2, but who will sing the title song?

 

Rats becoming a problem in New Orleans as people empty restaurants, streets

 

The small ups and downs I get but we are taking a potential baseline of 350 million even though the actual infected is the real unknown.
I will use an example that will better explain my curiosity:

The shooter in Las Vegas had a gun (virus) and let's say 1000 bullets (potential virus contacts) the crowd number in the thousands.
The negative factor is he had to reload/spread out targets/finite number of bullets (social distancing/population).

So, upon shooting into the crowd he hits say 100 people and kills 30. Then reload (new group of targets) and hits 300 and kills 95. Just like the virus there was never just one action controlling the targets, the severity of the wound, nor the location of where it would go.
The virus doesnt have one set of demographics in that it could infect multiple nursing homes or aged neighborhood or one day could hit zero high risk areas. So how does the death rate go up daily in an almost incremental fashion (I get 40 or 50 difference) and why not up 250 one day down 500 next up 40? This virus isnt a reprogrammed computer chip it is free flowing the deaths are not controlled they happen all by themselves.
So why, for the last 10 days has it been relatively stepping up without anomalies?

 

I already explained it to you: law of large numbers. There is an expected number of deaths in each local area along with error rates. Let's assume a symmetric curve (i.e., that errors are just as likely to miss under or over the expected amount). We then run all 3,000 county-level curves. The aggregate result will have less and less error as you run these random events over and over again. So at a county level, you will get substantial randomness. At a state level you will get less but still noticeable randomness (i.e., Louisiana had 51 deaths yesterday and 34 today). At a national level, the likelihood of missing above and below the expected amount eventually balances, where the final result will likely be very close to the expected amount of the disease progression curve.

To use your analogy of the Vegas shooter, if the Vegas shooter reloaded 3,000 times every day, the error rate would asymptotically decrease to small amount, such that the total killed would end up being fairly consistent.

 

Yeah they won't have a truer number until a year or 2 after the Pandemic ends. Even then, they will pour through the other deaths that never were proven to be COVID-19. We will never know the actual number, only a best guess. Unless they can give an antibody test to every person on the planet, we will never know exactly how many came down with COVID-19. So the denominator is a guess and the numerator, deaths will also be a guess. You can't dig up every unknown death to test for the virus. Most likely it will go something like this, global cases were from 2,000,000 to 20,000,000 with the median of 11,000,000 and deaths ranged from 200,000 to 2,000,000 with a median of 1,100,000.

 

Reports there were 96 spent casings but thankfully only 6 people hit.

Six people shot at California house party that violated stay-at-home order