Coronavirus in the United States - news and thoughts

Is this similar to a wobble during hurricane season?

 

And now we repeatedly hear from the president that this was a surprise and nobody expected it. But, the governors should have been prepared. We heard a lot of opinions, but nobody offered science or statistics. This is what happens when policy is not science-based, but driven by the opinions of the ignorant. And let’s say that 2.2 million is too high. Current estimates are 100,000 to 250,000 deaths with current measures. If they are just double or triple that number instead of 2.2 million? Some people are so lacking in empathy that they watch these press conferences and they see numbers; not real people suffering and dying. So long as it doesn’t affect them.

 

Looks like the IHME Model says 80,000 total US deaths. Not ideal but much better than your 100-250k deaths.

 

Federal Government Outbids Kentucky For Medical Equipment Amid Shortage

If they aren't going to lead, they could at least stay out of the way.

 

There is a point at which we recognize that end of life is inevitable and that it is impractical (let alone impossible) to hope to eliminate every obstacle that may lead to one's ultimate physical demise. To that end, it is necessary to recognize that individuals will not agree on what may constitute appropriate measures for keeping one alive (we see that even within families fighting over end-of-life protocols on individual cases). We must recognize that at some point we lean more heavy on sacrificing quality for quantity; likewise, at some point, we lean more heavy on sacrificing quantity for quality.

Just my opinion, but we need to be careful not to cheapen a different view on it to something that may initially appear like "just kill some old guys so we can watch our football!" There is a lot of philosophical difference that will be tough to navigate, and to people with extreme views on either end, the opposing views may look extremely short-sighted and/or extremely selfish. Every one of us is likely considered to be old to somebody, and/or we have old people in our lives that we love and cherish. We will all get to the finish line eventually, I think it's important that we consider as many different views as possible in terms of what that finish line might look like. But it's important to respect that our views of the finish line may differ greatly from others.

Go GATORS!
,WESGATORS

 

Neither are Italy or Germany. Nor Spain, nor the UK, or Russia, or even South Korea or China. So what's your point? Stats are misleading. #1 is Faeroe Islands with a whopping 100k/million ratio. But in reality, they have only administered 4,890 tests. In fact, no large country makes the Top 20 except for Iceland and Norway. Iceland has administered 25,000 tests to get ranked at #2. Norway cracks the Top 10 with 105K tests. Easy to do guys when you can crank out tests in 2 weeks. The US generating 100k tests per week, well we didn't. It was nearly 300K since the 2nd week of March. And we are the first to create a 15 minute test.

Do you all know how impossible it is to test everyone in the US? This isn't like we are pumping out 330,000,000 sugar cubes every 2 weeks. For 100 years this world became one big family where if you want to climb Mt Everest, you can be there by the end of the day or tomorrow. People today travel everywhere every day and by the time "Patient 0" flew into Washington on January 20th, it was too late. I'm putting together a neat geographical map of the US for researchers to retrace the steps of everyone that came from outside the country between Thanksgiving and January 20th. From the early algorithms they are using, we think there was no way to stop this virus. It's possible as many as 6,000 people flew in from China on Jan 2nd, to almost every part of the US. The next step is to determine if any of them were sick. If they were and they feel many of them had been sick, then there would be no way to isolate.

This is a really cool video if you have a few moments to watch. Might be the best of any video to date about this virus.



This tweet is not what I am doing but it's similar. What these guys are doing I don't have the time or resources to do something that sophisticated but it gives you an idea of how quickly a virus can be spread even from a small sample like one beach during Spring Break. Watch the video and then think about how this virus really was impossible to isolate. No amount of testing would have prevented anything here in the US.

 

read my follow up post.

 

So if the federal government buys it and directs it to the hardest hit areas it's wrong. But, if the federal government let's the hardest hit areas fend for themselves they are wrong. This reasoning reminds me of arguing with my ex wife.

 

If they are buying it and directing it to the hardest hit areas, then they should be communicating that to the states they are taking it from so they know what is happening and can plan accordingly.

 

BMI over 30 is what the ID doc was referring to.

 

Holy hell.

 

Real:

Have really enjoyed your posts lately. Brings a lot of clarity to supply chain/logistics that most don't realize. Can you share that geographical map once you get it completed? TIA

 

But is it being directed to the hardest areas? Is it being procured in a reasonable fashion? I'm not sure. The distribution of "our" stockpiles is all so super classified, need to know.

trump tells states to fend for themselves and then blocks them from doing it. this reasoning reminds me of arguing with your ex-wife.

Trump Leaves States to Fend for Themselves

 

Well said. I've never meant anything different in any of my posts from what you are saying. I don't think there is anything wrong with asking that question. I believe I'm well above the median age in this forum, and I do not want years added to my life if it means taking life from the years of those who come after me. I've had my shot. I pretty much blew it, but that's my problem, not everyone else's.

 

As I noted before and got many come on man's....
All those democratic socialist utopias with Universal Healthcare are doing a bang up job aren't they...?

 

I'd love to but the NIH probably won't allow anyone to release it. It's not really a chart but a GIS map loop of GPS signatures. Sort of like that video, but nothing as sophisticated as theirs. If they will release it as public domain, then I'll post it here. UAB tends to be security nazis, since it takes me a year to request a single VM even for development purposes.

 

They are all getting hit hard. That's why China is in serious trouble after this is over. They may not have many friends. There's questions over their containment protocols and really are they out of the woods or are spreading disinformation and really they are having to lock down the whole country.

Keep an eye on India folks. Things have been very quiet there since they went on lock down. They are very poor in most areas outside of the big cities and being that they have most of the Top 10 densest cities on the planet, it's not out of the question that they could end up losing 100 to 200 million people.

 

I'm not sure fatality metrics are comparable given disparate national testing strategies. An example would be GA and FL. Roughly the same number of deaths but FL has twice as many tests. Would it be statistically valid to claim that Georgians are twice as likely to die if positive?

 

Totally understand Real....thanks my Gator friend!