I'll believe Trump isn't completely and totally full of partisan sh*t when I see him criticize red state governors in the southeast and midwest for being unprepared the next time a tornado or hurricane drops in their lap and kills hundreds of people.
Models are only as good as the data they rely on. They are of course to going to change over time with the intervention of different social distancing measures and their impact plays out in the numbers. That said, experts closer to home still have some fairly large predictions. Believe this was posted yesterday on here: Experts Say The Coronavirus Outlook Has Worsened, But The Trajectory Is Still Unclear
Interesting thread from the Bullgator Den: https://www.gatorcountry.com/swampg...velop-innovative-face-mask-technology.469861/ And from the link: Gainesville Sun
I'm claiming the pandemic exclusion to copying over premium content. Here you go: "With respiratory masks used by health workers battling the coronavirus in short supply, the University of Florida Health's department of anesthesiology has developed masks that can be produced in large quantities using materials already found in hospitals and medical facilities.UF Health workers are crafting masks out of materials already available in medical facilities. UF Health workers are crafting masks out of materials already available in medical facilities. N95 respirator masks have been in high demand worldwide since the outbreak of COVID-19. That led a UF Health anesthesiology professor to create a simple respirator mask from the sterile wrapping that is normally used to surround surgical instrument trays before they pass through gas sterilization or an autoclave. The innovative mask uses Halyard H600 two-ply spun polypropylene that cannot be penetrated by water, bacteria or particles. It blocks 99.9% of particulates, making the masks about 4% more effective at blocking particulate material than the N95 masks, according to Bruce Spiess, M.D., a professor of anesthesiology in the UF College of Medicine, who made that calculation based on the manufacturer's specifications." GatorCountry.com Follow me on Twitter at Nick de la Torre (@NickdelaTorreGC) | Twitter Email: delatorre@gatorcountry.com + Quo
This is a bit of a stretch. He revised his model to account for the very severe measures taken by the UK to contain the virus and mitigate its harmful effects. His worst case scenario was always based on them doing nothing and trying to achieve herd immunity.
CNBC: Los Angeles county: 23,000 hospital beds, preparing to move non-covid-19 to the hospital ship Mercy which has 1000 more beds. 2200 ICU beds, Only 200 left free as of the report
I posted this last night. And there is a lot of discussion Earlier in the thread about this. Suggest you go back and read it or we will be in an endless loop discussing the same thing.
CNBC: China never had area outside of Hubei province with more than 1100 cases. America has 11 states with more than 1,000 cases
As far as I know people with symptoms are given a flu test first to rule that out (at least that’s the procedure I heard before and what they did for my wife). It takes 15 minutes tops to get flu test results.
Not true according to the John Hopkins site Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center Guandong and Zhejiang are two I saw so far.
That is one of the factors in the revised Imperial College and Oxford numbers. I believe it was here for reasons I have expressed earlier in this thread and for reasons I pm’ed a couple of mods. I had the symptoms beginning January 13 and it was not a cold and flu was ruled out. I have another reason for believing this as well. If that is the case, there was a longer period before community spread began. If you look at the growth curve, there is always a flat line of cases before the exponential growth starts. If that is the case, there has been more exposure and the course is likely to not be as severe long term. But, social distancing is still needed.
In part. But Oxford has a different model based on retroactive experience and says that the disease has been around 2 months longer and that people have gotten it without symptoms. So, a lesser rate of per person passing of the infection.
Yes, but that's a totally different model (as you said) that some scientists do not feel is accurate.
Coronavirus could kill 81,000 in U.S., subside in June - Washington University analysis The number of hospitalized patients is expected to peak nationally by the second week of April, though the peak may come later in some states. Some people could continue to die of the virus as late as July, although deaths should be below epidemic levels of 10 per day by June at the latest, according to the analysis. The analysis, using data from governments, hospitals and other sources, predicts that the number of U.S. deaths could vary widely, ranging from as low as around 38,000 to as high as around 162,000. The variance is due in part to disparate rates of the spread of the virus in different regions, which experts are still struggling to explain, said Dr. Christopher Murray, director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, who led the study.