Coronavirus in the United States - news and thoughts

Based on their trajectories at 67 days in, which pandemic do you believe will kill more Americans?

 

He has stated he thinks this will peak by 3/30 so there's your answer.

 

No sir. The statement was a value judgment to support a policy that, if followed, will lead to a significant number of additional deaths.

The meaning is not in semantic word parsing. The meaning is the willingness to accept deaths.

So, how many? Simplistic statements like that are garbage. What matters is: how many more deaths is he talking about?

And, it is all nonsense. The big states and many cities are going to stay shut. Trump just wants to blame governors in blue states for the economic consequences. While taking credit for a lower rate of deaths caused by the shut downs in big cities.

This is the GOP strategy unfolding, which is why the OP rushed to post it with his comments.

Trump's approach would be the original Great Britain strategy: to pursue faster herd immunity at the cost of more deaths.

Did you read my link?

And, lets not talk numbers here. There is very limited testing and we have no reliable US based data. Too many sick people not getting tested.

 

Correct. From the CNN fact check:

So many of those tests never saw US sol.

Yet that tweet was "liked" by posters here and retweeted a gazillion times.

 

I don't engage in willful ignorance. He didn't go on TV to give random hypotheticals. He went on TV to make an argument. It's messaging. And his messaging is that the elderly should be willing to potentially sacrifice their lives for the younger generations' economic prosperity. It's a horrible notion, but feel free to stick your head in the sand.

 

Respectfully, I am not saying this is my strategy of choice, but the large majority of deaths are very isolated "hotspots" that might need to be the focus, and testing is happening to the dead. We know the number of deaths. In fact I saw a report somewhere that said the death count might be a bit inflated because some deaths may have happened regardless. (example that I listed upthread about the man with the bad heart and multiple heart attacks the week he died, but he tested positive, so his death is attributed.)

I make no decrees about what would or should. I have been down with our decisions so far, but I bet a great many grandparents would agree, that they fought too hard to make this country great for their grand kids to let it all fall apart in a couple months.

 

1. You misquoted him. Not me.
2. Feel free to remove that garbage tweet that you posted.

 

Ron Klain was the Obama Ebola Czar. CNN is quoting from the CDC's report about what the CDC provided. I'll quote from that report for you:
CDC Novel H1N1 Flu | The 2009 H1N1 Pandemic: Summary Highlights, April 2009-April 2010
The transition away from CDC lab confirmation testing didn’t happen overnight though - between April 23 and May 31, 2009, CDC influenza laboratory analyzed about 5,000 influenza virus samples, five times the number that were processed in a similar timeframe in 2008, and more than during any previous influenza season. By May 18, 2009, 40 states had been validated to conduct their own 2009 H1N1 testing, with eight states having multiple laboratories able to do their own testing.
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Before I quoted Klain, I read the CDC report and the CNN fact check that you provided. But I was unable to find numbers that took into account the CDC, state/private labs, and testing internationally. I decided to go with Klain because he's one of the few people who would actually know. Don't assume I didn't do my homework, Tilly. And regardless of what the exact number is, Fever is still wrong (and has been corrected on that point many times, which is why I initially didn't bother providing a link again). So don't try to create a straw man to distract from that.

 

Is that you Fever?

 

Didn’t Seattle go on lockdown before everyone else? How are they doing?

 

I think the comment about grandparents is utter crap. And, a religious person might check out what G-d said at Sinai about honoring your father and revering your mother. That guy is another GOP bible thumper who sells out his religion if it has a financial or political price.

So, you know better than the doctor about the heart attacks?

Any idea why a person's heart stops when he has severe pneumonia?

Same as when someone drowns. No air, the heart stops.

And, you are assuming a constant death rate based on the number of reported deaths here now, which is inconsistent with the epidemiological statistics which show exponential growth and therefore exponential death when there is community spread. The disease has a 3 week course in the most severe cases. I posted the process elsewhere and I @gatorntuscaloosa’s thread Tom the Den. So people who died this week and last week caught the disease 2 and three weeks ago. Making predictions for next week based on the bottom of the statistical curve is weak science. That is why you have to rely on epidemiological studies and predictions going forward.
We are very early in this and community spread is being slowed by the steps we have taken. We will see cases develop from contacts before the shut downs.

And, you assume everyone who dies was tested.

But, Dr. Tilly, explain why the Imperial College study is wrong. Post 25 in the Trump going back to work thread. Its results are consistent with the empirical results elsewhere.

I posted science here and everyone else is arguing what they think the current unreliable numbers in this country mean.

 

Just got an email from my daughter in Texas. One of her fellow teachers was exposed to someone with the virus and is now showing symptoms herself. But she can't be tested because there's not enough tests.

 

There still aren't enough tests basically anywhere. It should be criminal. If you don't meet strict criteria, you don't get tested until your symptoms become so severe that you're hospitalized (and even then, it can be difficult to get a test). Texas is making strides, but it's still way behind. And this is frankly scary:
This model predicts the last day each state can act before the point of no return

 

Story happening everywhere. In my community, two leading synagogue Rabbis got the disease. One just got out of the hospital. Both tested.

Jews just had the holiday of Purim-- lots of parties. After that, people started getting sick. The Rabbi. People in the congregations. Their friends including someone I know.

None can get tested.

Trump is going to rely on bad data.

 

I didnt create a straw man. I posted a link...with CDC numbers stating that only 5000 went out in one month. Not 1 million as your post claimed. It was further pointed out that many of the tests that came later were not even used in the US.

That is not a straw man. Iam calling out his made up number that has no evidence of fact. He is CYA because his boss got called out.
Do not take this as a defense of Trump either. I have said many times that Washington has blundered and that Trump has handled it terribly.

 

False.
Detecting 2009 Pandemic Influenza A (H1N1) Virus Infection: Availability of Diagnostic Testing Led to Rapid Pandemic Response

 

That's not what the CDC said. It said that it tested 5000 in the first month. The Obama Administration created the test and distributed it to labs both in America and internationally (to use to develop their own version of the test). If you can find the numbers tested domestically and internationally in the month after April 28th, I'll concede the point. Until then, I'll go with the person who was actually in the know.

 

Until I can find something stating otherwise, I'll concede the point. Regardless, it doesn't change the actual issue. The Obama administration acted far more swiftly and decisively to address the swine flu.

 

That is a really informative website. Thanks for posting it.