Coronavirus in the United States - news and thoughts

You and I both.

 

Michigan just ordered shelter in place.

 

Important takeaway. Thanks!

 

I'll speak to the last note.

I would venture to guess the Zithromax prevents atypical Pneumonia from developing in the weakened damaged lung of the infected person.

To summarize the Covid attacks and weakens the lungs of the infected and they a secondary bacterial infection sets up causing the pneumonia. Off course this could be proven with cultures on those with pneumonia and Covid.

 

There appears to be no specific end point for that data, only 1958. Even if it were early in 1958, you are looking at 1 year of data and 116k deaths in the U.S. I wonder if the medical experts back then were able to do it all over again with more modern resources, if they would have done things differently. IOW - there is a threat to concurrent validity for your assertion, due to the generational differences in medicine and technology.

For additional perspective, on March 16, just one week ago, there were 4300 Covid-19 cases in the U.S. with 77 deaths. Today there are more than 35,000 cases and 459 deaths. This sort of exponential growth is alarming and will continue for a period of time; let's hope that what you purport to be "draconian measures" slow this exponential growth.

 

The number of cases in Arizona has jumped exponentially to 234 today, with 2 deaths already. Still an extremely small number of people have been tested in the state. The number includes a mother and daughter who came back from a visit to NYC about 10 days ago. The ability to contain hot spots has already left the barn.

Trump's lack of leadership is going to bite us in the butt for a long time. It started with his decision to run up higher deficits in a time of economic prosperity. It has left is ill-prepared, economically, for the bailout that is required. Trump's lack of compassion and his inability to see beyond his own nose and bring us together as a country in a time of crisis is just as bad.

 

Atlantic casinos, volka, Trump Airlines etc............

 

Why not blame Obama then? He racked up huge amount of debts even when the economy came back but he did it by using steroids rather than sensible options. We can play that game forever by pointing to past mistakes. Why didn't Obama enact new legislation during and after the 2009 Pandemic? We didn't change much after the end of the Pandemic. No new stockpiles of PPE, no additional stockpiling of ventilators. We really learned nothing from that Pandemic. But I'm not going to blame Obama for that. We had other issues to deal with at the time and we took for granted many things, but we never got concerned about the presence of SARS, MERS, H1N1 inside of a 6 years. We went along like it was just a common cold. Until December, the economy was humming along with the only fear being Bernie winning the election.

 

Alright I think I have seen enough data from the other countries (China and the Western European ones to date) to make a more informed guess on the topping of this virus in the US and a rough guesstimate on what happens with it the next few weeks in the US.

I am ignoring the confirmed case count now because when NY, NJ and WA started mass screenings of people with runny noses the other day it throws that out as a useful metric anymore and I think they are going to stop doing that or have already because they were using so many masks up.

The DD count has been 57, 49, 46, 117 for the past 4 days.

It appears to me most of the country except for the NE is just going to bounce around at about the point they just reached today for some days topping but NY and NJ especially have some upward movement left.

My guesstimate is we will get another high number like yesterday's tonight starting a topping pattern and the DD count will have its daily high somewhere in the next 7 days and will begin a declining pattern after that.

People like Nate Silver and them waiting for a possible CA jump like NY had are wrong imo and will only get a few anecdotal days to think that could be starting. I could be way off and it shoots way higher for a while but I will take my medicine if I am wrong.

 

He reduced the deficit throughout his second term (except for his final year). Trump immediately reversed that trend.

We learned enough to have teams and people in place to help deal with pandemics and infectious diseases . . . until the Trump Admin decided to undermine it.

 

Obama had us trending the right direction post recovery. 2016 and 2017 were moving in the wrong direction, and if anyone has an explanation, I'd like to read it. What we should have done is continued the trend that started in 2012, as the economy remained strong. But we know what Trump did, and the chart above shows the results.

The 2009 H1N1 epidemic had a lot of difference than the current COVID-19 issue. One, was the older population already had immunity due to the virus being familiar. With COVID-19, it's novel, meaning not a single person in the population has any immunity. Second, there was a H1N1 vaccine that was developed before the virus hit the US. It's unfortunate that the virus mutated and the vaccine only proved to be about 25% effective, but that was something that could not have been predicted. Had there been a vaccine for COVID-19 ready already, we would have ensured the most vulnerable would get the vaccine first, followed by everyone else, and the overall reaction of social distancing and orders to stay home would have never been enacted. No need. But a vaccine won't be ready for months at best. The variables Obama faced is completely different than what Trump is facing.

Obama also kept the CDC Pandemic team that Trump dissolved. We'll never know what might have happened, but we do know that we were woefully unprepared for COVID-19. Not enough tests still today, and hospitals running out of gowns, masks, and respirators. Something that may not have happened under previous administrations, but absolutely did happen under Trump.

Last, when tossed a softball question on how to encourage panicking Americans, Trump not only didn't answer, he went after the reporter! That's not leadership. That's pettiness that doesn't bring the country together. It's a complete lack of leadership that one day will cause Trump to go down as one of the worst Presidents in modern history.

 

Some good info there. The only thing is this stuff just getting into one nursing home in some states can greatly change that % of fatalities for a state. I think that has happened in at least WA and a couple of other states.

 

These are pictures of the hospital my son was born at in Sicily.

 

It's looking like Trump is ready to call off the social distancing and lock downs ... probably because it's not helping his reelection bid. Hopefully the governors will give him the finger...

Trump itching to scale back social distancing after 15 day-period, aides say - CNNPolitics

 

Florida is really going to be hurting. Those thermometer stats were a solid indicator.

 

Five U. of Tampa students tested positive for COVID-19 during Spring break. Things are going to get worse before they get better, given the incubation period. Who knows how many people each student interacted with while they were infected and before they got tested.

 

It sure would be freaking nice if this website that we all pay for would get the Twitter/Imgur issue worked out in this period of down time...

 

The bill has failed

Sticking points are more help for workers

and climate mandates on the airlines.....smh

 

The bill should 100% be about helping workers AND businesses. Imposing extracurricular mandates for solar on the airlines is opportunistic and quite sad, frankly. This shouldn't be a partisan bill.