the statistic I remember reading is doubling every 3 days. And of course, there's a debate about what metric we should use, since we haven't done much testing and we don't even know how many actual cases we have, only confirmed cases. Most of the analyst I read say they would like to track deaths, since that's more effective. but we are not yet at the point where that is a meaningful statistic, but we're close, and we will get there
Respectfully disagree. Common knowledge was that young people without underlying conditions could be transmitters. Nobody was predicting 10 days ago young, healthy people would account for 40%+ of severe cases that required hospitalization. In addition to death rate, the strain on the hospital system was a big consideration. It was all focused on stopping the spread of the virus to protect the elderly. I'm not 100% confident that the CDC didn't warn that 40% over extremely critical cases would be young healthy people 10 days ago. Would love to be educated if you have a reliable link. If you think there are zero patients in California, Illinois or Georgia that are hospitalized with COVID-19 right now I would bet you my entire net worth you are wrong and hope I am wrong for the sake of humanity.
100,000 tests in 3 days. The nuber has jumped each day from the previous. We have to do better, but we are testing large numbers now.
I think you're getting a bit ahead of yourself here. We are in an exponential trend upward for both positive cases and deaths based on current data.
The % of hospitalization is much different than % of cases. Many reports are that the hospital numbers are lower than most of us think. But the HUGE number of people NOT being hospitalized are mostly young and healthy. Healthy people are basically a non factor on the death rate. This is why they cancelled March Madness and paused the NBA. Young people in close proximity could give it to each other. I don't claim to know how many are in hospitals in Cali, Illinois or Georgia. I just posted the link, but it looks like they aren't posting that data.
Not at the compounded rate some were projecting. I am saying that social distancing is working. Those worst case numbers were based on doing nothing, and we did something.
And I don't think it is fair to use a my two previously cited examples as a microcosm or a large enough sample size to base anything off of. However, my mom has literally worked at Emory for 20 years in the pediatric unit. Numerous very sick kids that tested negative for COVID-19, but have all the symptoms. Are the tests wrong, has it mutated, is my mom just ready to retire. Same with a pediatric pulmonologist in Orlando who is a friend. Tiny sample size and focus on complex pediatric cases. Neither has seen anything like the last two days, but you are well versed in studies so won't pretend that my two phone calls can be applied to the broader community. Scared the hell out of me though.
If any state is limiting in reality its because their tent setup or whatever is behind the 8 ball for the mild cases or they just dont want to test mild cases now with the hysteria. NY shows when you want to give the media their doom talking points you just test a ton more people and drop the death % way down but don't mention deaths are down meaning the stuff is about to start decreasing..and keep screaming NY itself has 8,000 new cases!!!!........
In strategic shift, doctors in America's two largest cities are told to skip some coronavirus testing Health officials in New York City and Los Angeles County are signaling a change in local strategy when it comes to coronavirus testing, recommending that doctors avoid testing patients except in cases where a test result would significantly change the course of treatment. A news release from the Los Angeles Department of Public Health this week advised doctors not to test those experiencing only mild respiratory symptoms unless “a diagnostic result will change clinical management or inform public health response.” The recommendation reflects a "shifting from a strategy of case containment to slowing disease transmission and averting excess morbidity and mortality," according to the statement. The guidance said coronavirus testing at L.A. County public health labs will prioritized those with symptoms, health care workers, residents of long-term care facilities, paramedics and other high-risk situations. Others are encouraged to simply stay at home. At about the same time, the New York City Department of Health directed all healthcare facilities to immediately stop testing non-hospitalized patients for Covid-19.
Come to thank of it that is actually sensible. I jumped the gun previously seeing this except I would say they just know the doom jig was about up because after a week or so they would have been pushing a string with mild case testings to raise the numbers.
When the trend flattens out, then I'll be right there w/you. There's still hella too much uncertainty for me. I feel like we're only in the bottom of the first.
The limits on tests are because the Trump administration waited 2 months to get started on policy-- including testing. So, let's be clear why there is inadequate testing and why choices are being made. First, mild cases can be spread. The failure to test requires people to quarantine who do not need to. Second, mild cases can become bad cases. Did you read the links on disease progression? A three week progression; First mild symptoms. Then breathing problems. Then severe symptoms appear after mild symptoms. So people need to know. And ignorance does not help us set policy because there are no conclusions that can be made from numbers like people are trying to do here. Like you. You have been making up facts about the spread of the disease and drawing conclusions from inadequate numbers. See post 2619. So stop making conclusions from numbers when we do not have any accurate numbers. The fear is that as the next few weeks come, people not even tested show up in extremis and overwhelm the system.
I have a friend whose brother is a big shot surgeon. Makes like a gazillion a year. He’s been cut to half salary and told no surgeries til summer. I guess elective surgery of some sort. Life may be tough on a half gazillion for a while. Hospital making zero on him.
For the sake of the board, I'll stop repeating myself. We can agree to disagree on this one. We have no idea where hospital rates will go. The reports saying there are zero hospitalized patients with COVID-19 in California, Illinois and Georgia aren't worth a food stamp. I respect you and the other moderators on the board and think you know where I stand on putting that propaganda / non-sense as a linked source at the top of the most busy section of a leading website for my school. Go gatas.
